Friday, September 21, 2018

The closing of the matrimonial mind

Sexbots are already destroying civilization and we don't even have sexbots yet. From Trends, searches for "MGTOW" (men going their own way) and "how to get a girlfriend" in the US over the last five years:


Graphical representation by state:


The fundamental question of the 21st century is whether or not the West has the will to survive. Climbing on two by two to be sure these days continue is necessary--these are things we cannot change. It is not alone sufficient, but it is necessary.

Parenthetically, I know there are silicon dolls out there but the Marilyn Monroebot is still, like artificial intelligence, somewhere over the horizon.

60 comments:

216 said...

tfw no Julia Salazar gf

Foxitol said...

Bring on the sexbots.

Rien said...

In his latest book 'Game' (banned from amazon) RooshV writes how the increasing communication tools today warp the sexual market. Being hypergamous, girls will tend to overestimate their SMV based on the increased number of offers. Resulting in a large population of men that simply are no longer regarded as 'good candidates'. Even though these men would be top-of-the-list just 20 years ago. Result: disgruntled young men.
Now top that off with the "all sex is rape" movement, and it is not difficult to see why men simply give up.

Now think about the political implications of this: what happens when large numbers of young men are excluded from the sexual market?

Duke Norfolk said...

Yay modernity! (I know, baby, bath water, etc.)

vok3 said...

Now think about the political implications of this: what happens when large numbers of young men are excluded from the sexual market?

War.

TravisCollins said...

When will men start to fight back against the Enemy?

Jig Bohnson said...

Ironically, anyone who is searching Google for how to get a girlfriend is going to need a sexbot.

Mr. Rational said...

AE, you need to be more aggressive about spam removal.

Mr. Rational said...

Ah, it happened as I was writing.

Jig Bohnson said...

An observation: The map there kind of resembles the regional breakdown on the 'libertarian vs. authoritarian' political axis. The sex doll searchers are saying both "don't control me with your outdated mores" and also "there is a market problem (scarcity of willing women) and it has a market solution (increasingly realistic sex dolls)."

Audacious Epigone said...

216,

I guess Salazar is considered attractive because politics is like show business for ugly people. There are ass men, booby boys, and leg guys among red-blooded heterosexuals. I assume that face focusers are closeted fags.

Anyway, Salazar looks to have a pretty face and not much else. I don't get it. I took the kids to the pool several times a week over the summer and on any given day there were multiple women coming through who are a lot hotter than she is (yeah, mostly in the 17-21 yo age range, but still). Surely there are interns and low-level staffers that are more attractive?

Rien,

Stay tuned. The managerial answer is UBI, perpetual access to dopamine hits (porn/sexbots, video games, etc), and suicide (the white death).

Mr. Rational,

I slept in too long on a lazy Saturday morning. Back in the saddle!

3Dx said...

Anonymous vok3 said...

"Now think about the political implications of this: what happens when large numbers of young men are excluded from the sexual market?

War."

Western men are too cucked to do anything. Ask yourself why there is no MGTOW (or feminism) in Eastern Europe. Because the people are not cucked there. You can only dream of someone like Orban, who banned migrants, Soros and gender studies in the universities.

IHTG said...

Well well well: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-ks03-1.html

216 said...

AE,

The single young female, despite being the Dem party's strongest base, has nil representation in politics in this country. Our requirement for many candidates to self-fund and raise large amounts of money rules out those that aren't established. It's actually kind of strange that the Dems are throwing out their previous belief in experience and competency, and supporting manifestly unqualified women for the same reason Fox News does.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honey_trapping


Salazar is what Steve Sailer calls an "adventuress". Some of, ahem, us, are Walter Mitty.

Hippie Speedball said...

Just a few random but related thoughts... The younger guys at my MMA gym don't even look at marriage as an option. They're mostly from broken homes themselves, and I'm sure that skews the picture.

When I was dating it was pretty obvious women from divorced families didn't 'get' it and made for poor LTR prospects. There are exceptions to that rule. My cousin grew up in a divorced household, and she was determined to have kids and give them the stability she never had. I admire that.

I definitely see an inflated self-image in the single women I know who are now past the wall. I don't know how much of that is the survival instinct. One has to go on despite all the negative feedback, unless one succumbs to the wiles of the white death.

All the hard drinkers I work with are single women and gay men, and they seem to end up with cancer once they hit 50. Poor choices masking bad genetics? Before long, we may have a decent answer to these sorts of questions.

Audacious Epigone said...

Jig,

It also matches up pretty well with religiosity by state. Excepting New England, the nation's religiosity divide is largely an east-west one and that's what shows up here, too. The godly men still want union with women. The godless men are good with ever-improving masturbation techniques.

IHTG,

That's a neat interactive site. The southern part of the county is the really Republican part, though, and it looks like there is almost no feedback (calls not answered) from there, so I wouldn't read too much into the 10-point gap. I do think the race will be razor thin. I will not be voting for Yoder, who might as well be Paul Ryan without the speakership.

Hippie Speedball,

All the hard drinkers I work with are single women and gay men, and they seem to end up with cancer once they hit 50. Poor choices masking bad genetics? Before long, we may have a decent answer to these sorts of questions.

Indeed. Meredith from The Office is everywhere now.

Anonymous said...

@Hippie

People from divorced families don't get it. Not just the women. If you've spent a lot of time around people who grew up in the 90s and 2000s with divorced parents, you'll see this.

People with divorced or never married parents are useless. They make sub par students, sub par employees, sub par spouses, and sub par parents. They're kind of like people who were abused as children, in a way. Just useless. They underachieve their IQs with respect to education and career. They almost always get divorced or have out-of-wedlock kids themselves.

DissidentRight said...

Sexbots will do their part to save civilization by enabling dread game and by giving the thots something wholesome to aspire to.

"Anything [your sexbot] can do, I can do better!"
"Yeah, but can it cook?"
"Yeah, but can it clean your house?"
"Yeah, but does it come equipped with a baby-maker?"
"Yeah, but can it babysit your kids?"

chris said...

"Western men are too cucked to do anything. Ask yourself why there is no MGTOW (or feminism) in Eastern Europe."

Because there is no welfare state, little income tax and the executive is less effective at enforcement (i.e. police tend to be corrupt).

Anonymous said...

Well thanks man, way to hit me right in the feels.

Audacious Epigone said...

Dissident Right,

Yeah, I see the potential benefit in it, too--women who want companionship have to compete in being good wives rather than supple 18 yos.

Rod1963 said...

MGTOW is the canary in the coal mine falling over dead.

A lot of the blame isn't the females but government and the judicial system that made the current anti-white male environment the norm. Take it away and most women revert. Excepting those who drank too deeply from feminism.

However it won't stop until we hit serious economic distress and puts a end to the welfare/police state ability to fund and tolerate such insanity.

Sadly there is no peaceful way of reforming the system. We have 9 Druids in D.C. who prevent that from happening.

3Dx said...


@Chris

The police are not white knights like in the West. They are patriarchal, they are part of the people and understand how things work.

Do you know that more women than men voted for anti-feminist Orban (whose party has almost zero women ministers/MPs and banned feminist indoctrination in colleges) and more women than men voted for the Polish anti-feminist ruling party that bans abortion?

chris said...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/09/18/italys-proposed-new-divorce-law-would-turn-back-clock-years-womens-rights-critics-say/?utm_term=.da0ddef725a0

Italy seems to be pursuing legislation to curb down on the MGTOW phenomenon by actually making marriage less costly for men. If it passes, it could server as a useful data point to see of marriage rates increase as a result of these reversals.

chris said...

"The police are not white knights like in the West."

I wouldn't even say police are inherently white knights in the west, they just know who is in charge. Hell, 30 years ago in my country the police were known for beating up gay men and throwing them in rivers. Then those in power changed and the odds of that happening are now extremely small. It has less to do with police being white knights and all to do with who has power in western society and it isn't the white christian patriarchy. It's neoliberal/SJW globalism, a weird hybrid of international capitalism and neo-marxism.

MBlanc46 said...

For fifty years women have been telling men that we’re useless and worse. Who can be surprised that more and more men are checking out? MGTOW.

Random Dude on the Internet said...

It's very interesting to see how rapidly things have changed as well. 15 years ago, online dating was pretty stigmatized and this was a few years after internet access became ubiquitous.

It's not surprising that a higher number of men are checking out. Sex dolls are considered for losers now, much like online dating was in the early-mid 2000s. It's not going to take much for it to be considered normal, like porn addiction, another thing that used to be stigmatized but is now considered part and parcel of being a 21st century western male.

The (((powers that be))) are going to support the sex dolls because it's replacing family with more hedonism. Feminists fight against the sex dolls but much like how they lost out against porn, they're going to lose out against sex dolls. It will be easier to just cast off sex doll havers as losers but society will consider them to be losers even before they buy their first doll. Look for a movie in the next 5-10 years about an affable nerd who just so happens to have a sex doll, starring Michael Cera or Seth Rogen or whoever their twentysomething doppelgangers are.

Random Dude on the Internet said...

Double post but I just remembered that Lars and the Real Girl and Her exist.

216 said...

Random Dude,

I'll speculate that sexbots will be harder to legitimize because a male can physically act out "rape". With porn you can't do that, and "studies have shown" that the use of vanilla porn reduces inclination to rape.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/does-pornography-lead-to-sexual-assault_us_57c0876ae4b0b01630de8c93

It raises a clear contrast between the feminist and traditional notions of rape. The "consent/harm" approach that the feminists favor creates the problem that there can be both retroactive or "regret" rape, but also retroactively granted consent (Weinstein). The solution here is to adopt the "intent" paradigm, where the "intent to rape" is criminalized as rape, today the feminists don't favor it because they want regret criminalized, but this would preclude sexbots as use of them would be seen as "intent to rape".

I would not be surprised if several western countries (Sweden, esp.) enact a ban on sexbots for reasons mentioned above, which in any case will just see them relocated to less regulated Third World countries. I'd also expect East Asian countries to ban them given abysmal fertility rates.

Jig Bohnson said...

@216: very perceptive. If it were available on the prediction markets, I would bet $1000 that Sweden and at least one other country (Canada?) will make sex bots illegal within say the next decade. Any country that currently makes a woman selling sex legal but a man buying it illegal is a good bet to ban sex bots as soon as they become realistically available. And you're exactly correct, the real reason for the bans will be that ladies don't like the competition, but the stated reason will be that bots allow the acting out of rape fantasies, which will necessitate a reconception of rape rhetoric back to intent, which they will easily do.

@ others: "Ask yourself why there is no MGTOW (or feminism) in Eastern Europe."

There is a lot of MTGOW in Russia. They don't use that name, but many Russian men are out of the mating pool due to alcoholism / unemployment / low prospects. Other EE countries like Ukraine have some of the lowest TFR in the world.


216 said...

Jig,

I'm unsure that women are opposed out of fear of competition. It seems like a manosphere trope to me. Women seem to be chiefly concerned with their access to high-status men. Only when women hit "the wall" do they seek lower value men, left to their own devices. Women don't fear the competition provided by polygamy. Women fear the competition of prostitution less than the fear that economic circumstances could force them into prostitution.

The unspoken fear of sexbots is that they destroy productivity, as even low value bachelors will tend to subconsciously "overproduce". In effect, they also would undermine social hierarchy by giving low value men access to an artificial 10. So, perhaps not fear of competition, but fear of "lack of competition".

Once women are out of childbearing age, they don't seem as interested in marriage. This will become apparent in the 2020s, look at Dalrock's "Never marrieds piling up". It might even be the spark behind the "Crisis of the 2020s" that Peter Frost coined. The last time that we had large numbers of unable to be married women in the West was in the 1920s (proportionate casualties were higher in WW1). The difference then was that the men were dead or maimed. Now they could theoretically marry either foreigners or younger women (overthrowing the WEMP).

Does this fortell a large number of 2020s cougars engaging in sexual harassment out of desperation? A new euphemism will be coined. A rise in asexual 40+ female communal living? State-funded IVF treatments and sperm donors?

Jig Bohnson said...

@ 216: Interesting, but I'm not sure about this:

Women fear the competition of prostitution less than the fear that economic circumstances could force them into prostitution.

How does that explain the countries that now make men buying illegal but women selling legal?? To me that is strong evidence that they fear the sexual marketplace competition.

I think we need to analyze this by considering women's hierarchy of preference. In order of desirability, on a purely biological basis, the typical female wants to be:

1) the sole mate of a high status male

2) a side mate of a high status male

3) the sole mate of a mid-status male

4) Unmated, but at least with mid-status males showing potential interest and occasional trysts

5) the sole mate of a low-status male

5.5) anything else, including completely unmated

(proper social constraints can force #3 and #5 on this list relatively higher, but we lack those now)

So sure, prostitution and sexbots are not a threat to those who are in the running to end up with #1 and #2, but that is not most women, and most women know it (even though they do overestimate their SMV somewhat). Most women know they are in the running for #3 and #4, and those are the statuses that are potentially threatened by prostitution somewhat but especially sexbots.

If sexbots deliver a realistic girlfriend experience sexually without the accompanying courtship and wife experiences, it completely upends the sexual marketplace.


Feryl said...

When will men start to fight back against the Enemy?

When they stop competing against each other. Absurdly high levels of stupidly competitive behavior is amping up tensions and conflict within and between groups. Unfortunately, we've descended into this over the last 40 years, and historically speaking, these periods of rising or falling levels of striving for higher status tend to last 70-80 years. So we may not be out of the woods, for a long time (the period of about 1910-1980 was one of falling competition).

Corvinus said...

Of course, “how to get a girlfriend” is declining in searches because those men who have a girlfriend do not need to advice to attract them! And for those men who do not have a girlfriend, or have trouble finding one and are frustrated by not having one, they are constantly searching for ways to attract them through the Internet.

So it is not about a disinterest by men for getting girlfriends, it is about a lack of interest by men who have one, or many, within their grasp.

So it is not about increasing numbers of men in general for going their own way, it is about a subset of men--those who do not have girlfriends or have trouble getting them--who are repeatedly looking to the Internet for information to help them in their quest.

Note than the five highest places for MGTOW--Montana, Rhode Island, North Dakota, Vermont, and Alaska, are places where there are more men than women, more single men than single women, and are places where men will create their own “redoubt of solitude”.

As far as Roissy is concerned, sexbots are HIS future, not the general, hot blooded American male population. See, the truth of the matter is that this group is not concerned of saving the West or adhering to Civilizational traditions, nor should they be. Rather, they are focusing on how to live in our society in an age where there is quality poon, but the competition for it is fierce, like it has been since World War II.

Hippie Speedwall...

"The younger guys at my MMA gym don't even look at marriage as an option. They're mostly from broken homes themselves, and I'm sure that skews the picture."

Exactly.

"I definitely see an inflated self-image in the single women I know who are now past the wall."

This "wall" hits men and women equally hard. Don't fall for the manosphere claptrap.

Chris...

"Hell, 30 years ago in my country the police were known for beating up gay men and throwing them in rivers."

LOL, and what country are you referring to?

216...

"Women seem to be chiefly concerned with their access to high-status men. Only when women hit "the wall" do they seek lower value men, left to their own devices."

No. The reality is that men and women have their own thoughts and attitude as to what constitutes "high status"; as a result, they hold out longer for that "perfect" person to come along. As they get older, they either remain convinced they will find what they desire, or become resigned that their initial standards were too high and therefore recalibrate, especially if they are starting to show signs of age. In other words, men and women both hit this wall...good and hard. Perhaps that is what happened to you?

"Women fear the competition of prostitution less than the fear that economic circumstances could force them into prostitution."

Any sources to back up this assertion?

"The unspoken fear of sexbots is that they destroy productivity, as even low value bachelors will tend to subconsciously "overproduce". In effect, they also would undermine social hierarchy by giving low value men access to an artificial 10."

"Low value" = Who/Whom? Furthermore, there are significant legal and moral implications for "legitimizing" sexbots. Is this something you are looking to invest in and/or purchase for your own pleasure?

https://sputniknews.com/science/201801051060532345-sex-robots-moral-dilemma/

Put it this way, would you want a sexbot of your:
1. child to be replicated by a company, compliments of a pedophile,
2. wife to be replicated by a company, compliments of your "incel" neighbor,

who simply had completed and sent in a form describing the specifications of their new toy?

Corvinus said...

Jig...

"I think we need to analyze this by considering women's hierarchy of preference. In order of desirability, on a purely biological basis, the typical female wants to be...

The key here is what are the metrics for "high", "mid", and "low" status male.

"If sexbots deliver a realistic girlfriend experience sexually without the accompanying courtship and wife experiences, it completely upends the sexual marketplace."

You mean an artificially induced girlfriend experience within the sexual realm.

Feryl said...

"Once women are out of childbearing age, they don't seem as interested in marriage. This will become apparent in the 2020s, look at Dalrock's "Never marrieds piling up". It might even be the spark behind the "Crisis of the 2020s" that Peter Frost coined. The last time that we had large numbers of unable to be married women in the West was in the 1920s (proportionate casualties were higher in WW1). The difference then was that the men were dead or maimed. Now they could theoretically marry either foreigners or younger women (overthrowing the WEMP)."

One thing that really intrigues me is how we'll handle the reality of elderly Silents and early Boomers glomming onto like, 80% of the country's wealth. The later you were born, the less likely you are to have benefited from good wages and pensions. I do think we're looking at a ticking time bomb, right now. Collectivist culture is rapidly growing at a time when legions of people under 40 feel like they've been ripped off.

The DLC can only stave this off for so long. And certainly, under the guise of reperations I do think that it's only a matter of time before a Left-wing candidate arises who promises to do a Robin Hood on elderly whites. While us white Millennials are amenable to this sort of thing in the absence of racial politics, PC dictates that redistribution will likely be supported on racial grounds. Of course, if the Left can't help itself and insists on denying resources to young whites, they'll be increasing the likelihood that the future GOP is a white party which is much more economically Left wing than the historical norm (the new GOP becomes protectionist and immigration restrictionist to benefit younger white natives). I foresee both parties in the future becoming more Leftist, due to Millennials; it's just a question of how each party decides to go about racial issues. Will the Dems insist on flooding white countries with non-whites for decades to come? Will the GOP finally wake up and realize that the oppo. party has cynically realized that foreigners and their offspring can be used to rig elections? We all know that at conservative gatherings in recent months, the blather about tax cuts and de-regulation elicits cricket chirping, while tribal oriented rhetoric about protecting Americans from immigrants and trans national free trader elites brings cheers.

If the Dems don't support immigration restriction soon, and the GOP can't let go of Reaganism, then where do we have to turn?

216 said...

Jig,

I interpret the "buying illegal, selling legal" laws as a means to lower the status of men (john), while raising the status of women (prostitute). A legislative attempt to impose equality. A fear of competition would be better expressed by putting surtaxes on prostitution and trying to make it hard to obtain even if it is legal, perhaps by mandating registration of the buyer.

Corvinus,

That scenario would appear to be pre-empted by intellectual property laws.

From my amateur perspective, a sexbot seems more complex than a self-driving car. I don't foresee these becoming prominent until the 2030s.

We can estimate with a rough degree of confidence, the sexual market value of an individual. "Hot or Not", Mr. Zuckerberg founded Facebook based on it. If low value men can get an artificial 10, I don't think it requires much explanation why this would destroy productivity.

https://www.medicaldaily.com/pornography-shrinks-brain-areas-associated-motivation-does-x-rated-media-make-you-lazy-285298

216 said...

Feryl,

Usually in terms of "undeserving/deserving poor" we focus on those that have children, versus the single who don't need help. This is the leading long term consequence of welfare statism, as it is dysgenic.

Barring immigration would not be of immediate help to younger whites, the earliest beneficiaries would be underclass blacks and Hispanics. More beneficial to younger whites would be removing affirmative action, and then giving subsidies to any high IQ (we'll find a proxy) couple that has 3+ children.

Hard to say if the GOP base wakes up, if you ask the average Fox watching Boomercon, they'd probably tell you that 30% of blacks are going/already to vote Republican. To the extend that "Republican youth" exist that aren't being paid shills, there's a tendency to blame GOP struggles on the lack of feminism and diversity, let alone being shills for the wealthy. We aren't exempt from pathological altruism.

chris said...

@Corvinus

Correction, ~40 years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_George_Duncan

Anonymous said...

@216

The easiest way to proxy for high IQ would be to say that any MARRIED couple where both the husband and the wife have bachelor's degrees, don't have to pay any income tax as long as their child lives.

Marital status and education are decent enough proxies for IQ. I'm not worried about whether they have 3, 4, or 5 kids. I'm worried that they won't have any kids in the first place. If the clause is "as long as their offpring lives" then they will be enticed to have an heir and a spare. Just getting high IQ educated couples to go from 0 kids to 2 kids is a victory.

Corvinus said...

216...

"That scenario would appear to be pre-empted by intellectual property laws."

Perhaps. But you didn't answer the question. Here it is again. Would you want a sexbot of your:
1. child to be replicated by a company, compliments of a pedophile,
2. wife to be replicated by a company, compliments of your "incel" neighbor,

who simply had completed and sent in a form describing the specifications of their new toy?

"From my amateur perspective, a sexbot seems more complex than a self-driving car. I don't foresee these becoming prominent until the 2030s."

Not if the demand by "incels" and "low value men" for such devices run rampant, similar to the public's appetite for 3D printing.

"We can estimate with a rough degree of confidence, the sexual market value of an individual. "Hot or Not", Mr. Zuckerberg founded Facebook based on it."

Estimate, indeed. In other words, it is completely subjective in nature. Different people want different things. There are some characteristics that are considered more universally appealing than others, but even those things vary among individuals as to how they prioritize them.

"If low value men can get an artificial 10, I don't think it requires much explanation why this would destroy productivity."

More manopherist claptrap. The problem here is that guys like Roissy and Roosh insist there is but one way to look at "value", when in reality men themselves determine it. Vox Day is notorious for arguing that he is able to automatically assume what is and what is not an "alpha" or a "beta", and that those men who refuse to acknowledge their "proper" place on the hierarchy are only deluding themselves. He even made up his own category (sigma). That is absolutely insane.

silly girl said...

AE, since you understand numbers, I will throw this out there again.

Even though most women have two children or fewer, most children are living in a household with at least two siblings.

Natural selection is rearing its head.

Why do libs go crazy when they see one white conservative woman with six kids? Because they know on average it takes at least six lib chicks to produce six kids. She is using her female privilege! Democrats of the future will be dumb. The only dems in the black on demographics are browns/blacks. They will be the dumb party because they won't be electing smart white folks. There will be many more Maxine Waters types. I can't see Asians really sitting for that for long. And Asians hate high taxes at least as much as they dislike browns/blacks.

Anonymous said...



"The easiest way to proxy for high IQ would be to say that any MARRIED couple where both the husband and the wife have bachelor's degrees, don't have to pay any income tax as long as their child lives."

You don't even have to be that blatant. Just raise the child tax credit a little each year. It is only worth something to those with high enough income to pay taxes. It is worthless to the middle income and below.

We need to be like Sweden and make our taxes even more regressive.

216 said...

Corvinus,

I don't want a Julia-waifubot. I'm unmarried, so I can't give a straight answer to how I'd feel about a neighbor having a sexbot made to replicate a spouse. In an abstract sense I think its creepy, but that incel neighbor might be keeping it private. Why not direct the question to a married poaster?

Aren't you the same guy that says "how does it personally affect you" when we complain about the media shilling for BM/WF? I highly doubt you have ever told off an AM complaining about WM/AF.

Ordering a child sexbot is obvious evidence to me that one has pedophilic inclinations and thus must be contained. That said, I speculated that regulation of sexbots will see them set up in less regulated Third World countries.

"Hot or not" is objective data, no different than Rotten Tomato film ratings. The former objectively tells us if most men think a woman is "hot", the latter tells us if most respondents think a movie is "good". It may not fulfill "physics envy" designs of objectivity, but its way less subjective than law. And the market certainly thinks it is objective useful data, it has given Zuck lots of wealth in return.

Why do you think that there is no link between productivity and artificial sexual stimulation? You can't argue with the data that indicates that married men with families are more productive. Your tangent about Vox does nothing to disprove my "studies have shown" about porn and laziness.

Should I man up and marry that slut?

216 said...

Anon,

I think there is data showing that fertility is a bimodal distribution. It's high(er) in the underclass and plateaus until increasing again at the 350K/year income point. Women are happy to be a tradwife if their husband is wealthy, but even most M.D.s don't make 350K.

I'd want any "responsible fertility tax law" to be presented as for the "middle class" not the "rich".

Jig Bohnson said...

@ Anonymous: Bachelors degree was a decent proxy for IQ in the past, but will it be going forward, in the era of "universal" college, online diploma mills, and majors in basket weaving studies?

The best proxy for IQ that can't be gamed is married and living with all and only biological children of both. And even the outlers of low IQ who manage to do this are probably people who should be encouraged anyway.

Mr. Rational said...

The easiest way to proxy for high IQ would be to say that any MARRIED couple where both the husband and the wife have bachelor's degrees, don't have to pay any income tax as long as their child lives.

No good any more.  Bachelor's degrees, especially in SJW subjects, are far too devalued to be of any worth for selection purposes.  STEM degrees, maybe... for now.

If calculus, statistics or some other hard quantitative course was used for weeding out the weak minds in the first semester classes, maybe a BS or BA would be worth something again.

216 said...

There are some benefits to the "tuition free" university concept. In the Euro countries that have it, admission is by examination only, a lower percentage of students go to university, university facilities are spartan, and the elected government has more power over the university than the perversion we have known as "shared governance".

A more restrictive admissions structure would allow for a better targeting of fertility tax breaks, but an income test is the least bureaucratically complex. One could also imagine a "responsibility credit" for underclass taxpayers that don't reproduce beyond two.

Limiting the tax incentive to married couples has some problems. Marriage would have to be re-incentivized, and we can't rule out further judicial imperialism that allows for legally recognized polygamy. Adoption tax breaks already exist, so the gay angle is covered.

These incentives are fairly recent in Eastern Europe, so it's hard to say how effective they will be. At least from anecdotal experience, the university educated in Budapest are not fans of Orban. The Israeli example is sui generis, as all institutional power in Israel is dedicated towards Zionism. If anything, we should probably wonder why Israeli fertility isn't at 4 or 5 TFR given the incentives, the machismo granted by being an IDF veteran, and the gradual increase in religious observance.

Anonymous said...


"One thing that really intrigues me is how we'll handle the reality of elderly Silents and early Boomers glomming onto like, 80% of the country's wealth. The later you were born, the less likely you are to have benefited from good wages and pensions. I do think we're looking at a ticking time bomb, right now. Collectivist culture is rapidly growing at a time when legions of people under 40 feel like they've been ripped off."

They definitely are and have been ripped off.

I can't tell you how many people I know who are 80 years old, widowed and living alone in a four bedroom house. It is ridiculous. Sure, they saved some and have a pension, but they could not afford to stay there without social security which is a huge fraction of the $$ they have. Low wage folks are paying FICA so that these well to do folks can go from their bedroom to kitchen to sofa and back to bed. They probably don't set foot in the other three bedrooms, formal living and formal dining rooms but a couple times a year. Their grand kids have student loan debt and can't get married or buy homes, but grandma is still shuffling through the three rooms of her house she still uses while her grand kids' generation pays for it. Insane.

Audacious Epigone said...

Sexbots being banned even from private ownership on the grounds that it simulates acting out a rape fantasy?

I'm skeptical. In my head I'm seeing an SNL-style skit where a committee strikes down sexbots on the grounds that they simulate rape and it closes with a smiling omega carrying a big box with the words "Consensual sexbot" splashed across the top.

Feryl,

Great point regarding confiscating Boomer wealth. Boomer income is rapidly dropping as a potential income source--most of their affluence is tied up in wealth, especially 401(k)s and other defined contribution plans. In South Africa they'll be confiscated farms, in the US they'll be confiscating retirement accounts.

silly girl,

One thing not explicitly remarked on much--though it is implicitly alluded to all the time--is how the two-party system becomes less and less tenable as diversity increases. The primaries have become almost as nasty as the general election. Whereas European countries with several parties have one election, we have a part one and a part two. France is probably the closest comparison in contemporary Europe.

Audacious Epigone said...

216,

How do tuition-free entrance exam-based higher education do in The Current Year, as colleges scrap testing results, use "holistic" admissions processes, etc? Would there be any tolerance for it here?

216 said...

AE,

I'm surprised to see you underestimating feminists. The same people behind "toxic masculinity" are not going to allow men to engage in their toxicity by raping a machine simulating a woman. Men have to be "taught how not to rape", inside that phrase is the apparent belief that there is "accidental rape".

It's my belief that Incel is a passing Millenial fad, but what if it isn't? Any politician that doesn't support banning rapebots will be accused of being "weak on incel" "giving the incel what he wants".

216 said...

An exam-only admissions structure is unviable while America remains in the imperial state.

I was thinking in terms of RedExit. Think back to 2009 and the flurry of right-wing legislation that came out of Arizona when Janet was promoted to DHS and a GOP governor took office. Now imagine that on a nation-state level. Commissar Ocasio-Cortez already has the "Nazi Nukes" speech written.

Higher ed policy is not something the GOP likes to think about, after being burned by support in the 2000s for the for-profits. Complaining about "free speech" and protestors is easy, pondering a new finance structure or even junking tenure in favor of partisan appointments is beyond their thinking. Just cut taxes and somehow people will be able to afford tuition.


Jig Bohnson said...

we should probably wonder why Israeli fertility isn't at 4 or 5 TFR given the incentives, the machismo granted by being an IDF veteran, and the gradual increase in religious observance.

The biggest factor is cost of living and the related cramped housing stock. In many ways Israel is like a coastal American metropolis on steroids in terms of affordability and constriction of supply. If Israel had the single family homes and low prices of interior North America, they might have the highest TFR in the world.

216 said...

Jig,

The Israeli economy is certainly an oddity. A virtual island, that also spends a large portion of GDP on the military even after accounting for US largesse. In terms of protectionism, they should be doing far worse, but against the benefit of not having the Lebanese dominating their economy.

The Chinese might do well to reconsider sub-Saharan Africa in favor of North Africa, in partnership with Israel and the Saudis. Stabilized North Africa would have salutary effects on Europe by interrupting the migrant flow, and possibly providing employment to sub-Saharans in North Africa.

Corvinus said...

216...

"Aren't you the same guy that says "how does it personally affect you" when we complain about the media shilling for BM/WF?"

It's not media shilling, it's observable reality.

"I highly doubt you have ever told off an AM complaining about WM/AF."

Why on earth would I care about white men or non white-men, or white women or non-white women, making their own decisions about who they date and mate with?

""Hot or not" is objective data, no different than Rotten Tomato film ratings."

No, it is ultimately subjective, as what constitutes "hot" is something different to different people. I do not find, for example, Cindy Crawford to be "hot". Some of my male friends agree, while other male friends say "What are you, on coke"? On the other hand. I and others find ESPN sideline reporter Maria Taylor to be "hot". Some of other friends do not share that same opinion. Our response--"what are you, on coke"?

"Why do you think that there is no link between productivity and artificial sexual stimulation?"

I never made that point. What I am challenging is the designation of men by the manosphere, as well as bitchy women, as being "low value".

"Should I man up and marry that slut?"

Assuming that the woman you are dating, or plan on asking for a date, engaged in the "devil's triangle", or had a lesbian encounter, or was pounded by a BBC. I suggest you specifically ask those questions on your next, first date. Let us all know how that turns out.

AB.Prosper said...

What happens when too many men are unattached is drug abuse not war. Weed is legal here in So Cal and there are so many people stoned on something its not even note worthy The illegal stuff , heroin , meth and quasi legal bath salts are also ubiquitous

If they didn't have those it would be all booze all the time.

This is probably better but honestly the roads get closed or traffic delayed do to accidents by these wasters I don't think I'd notice an insurgency doing it om purpose.

As for male/female it will stay screwed up until either the economy gets bad or Left dies off. This is no guarantee of higher fertility though

The fertility rate in modernity is tied strongly to the economy as see in the declines in the 30's, 70's, 80's and so on each a different culture but with economic malaise or decline as part of all of them. And do note most people have had no economic benefit from the GDP growth, actual non tax gains are concentrated in a 10% range . Jobs are also much less stable. Parenting takes two decades of costs and if jobs aren't, people will think twice about that extra kid

And note modern divorce was not ubiquitous in 1972 neither was abortion, Roe was a year out and No Fault was 3 years old.The TFR was basically the same as now

Until the economy is fixed and housing costs decline, which will require mass repatriation and regulation of banks, don't expect much if any stability much less growth

Even a harder life and more religiosity as in Eastern Europe has zero impact . In fact White Germans and Scandinavians have a higher fertility that any part of Eastern Europe

All that aside in the long term, that is we'll all be dead long term the population decline will stop as the most fertile religious people will be most of the population

AB.Prosper said...

As the confiscating Boomer accounts, not likely. Assuming the US somehow survives the next few decades with collapse or war, the youngest boomers will be 69 by the 2030's .
Most of the money was already spent and many Boomers have no savings anyway.

More likely as its easier is massive money printing. The Feds print/borrow something like at least 1/3 of the budget now which is like 10% of the GDP.

This is how 3rd workers do it and so will we.

Its also possible we may try confiscatory taxes but no matter how they go, they won't get much more money . The US is subject to a specially brutal iteration of the Laffer Curve called Hauser's Law by which the Feds can get no more than 20% of GDP in revenue no matter what the rates are

All societies have such a limit its just higher in some others .

Long term bet on collapse from internal contradictions with maybe a smattering of war.

Audacious Epigone said...

AB.Prosper,

It is interesting how religiosity in the US, at the state level, correlates pretty strongly with fertility but the same pattern doesn't show up in Europe at all. If anything, it may be the reverse.

AB.Prosper said...

Epigone, I suspect the reason religion plays a part in fertility at the State level is that the US is not socially a developed nation.

Its a younger, less developed nation more on par with Latin America than Europe even without demographic issues.

Its also much less crowded, my favorite example is Oregon. When I was a lad there people were bemoaning population growth when it hit 1/15th the population of Germany!

The US even now has room for large families whereas Europe is basically full to the rim and has been for a hundred years

This makes it doubly insane to bring in migrants but the West's leaders are all status/virtue signalling junkies and think no more reasonably than a crackhead looking for a fix.

Another thing , US elite were very European in the recent past, still are to a high degree but this is shifting and as our elected come to represent the actual people who live here, its going to get interesting in the Chinese curse sense

Those parties are going to want spoils for their constituencies and when they can't get them will as you noted come looking for money.

They certainly won't give a crap about Europe, its not their old country or most of the other places.

This might mean a reduction to US global occupation and the military budget which is not an unfettered good despite what some think.

My personal opinion is the US will be toast by the mid 2030's or so yes a couple of decades or less out . Any idea no matter how loony can be sustained for a 75 years or so and we've been under increasing Cultural Marxism for quite a while , figure the Long March started in the 60's and 75 years is the 2030's.

Alternately if you feel its a century ala the Aztecs, start with Roosevelt and you get the same result.

The only question in my mind is this going to be an economic collapse, a civil war, USSR style fizzle or a combo of them. I don't think anyone really knows though as I noted above I'm betting USSR style with a smattering of war which is for me rather optimistic