Sunday, July 01, 2018

Would a socialist white guy have unseated a ten-term Latina in NY's 14th? Rhetorical

Thought experiment: 

Instead of Joe Crowley as the ten-term House representative up for re-election, it's a woman named Maria Sanchez. And instead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez the upstart challenging that ten-term congress critter, it's a young white man named Hayden Stoddard. Keep everything else constant about their political careers and campaign positions--Sanchez is the party machine woman, Stoddard the DSA-endorsed insurgent. Who wins?

Come on, BernieBros, engage with this hypothetical in good faith. Not only would Sanchez win--especially if she'd been talked up as the first Latina speaker of the House!--but her margin of victory probably would've been wider than Ocasio's was. A 20-point swing from the real result seems, if anything, like a conservative estimate to me.

This socialist PoC ascendancy isn't going to lead to something like the Immigration Act of 1924

Or if it does, it's not going to be in the way Agnostic imagines it will--with the socialist Sanders wing of the left leading it. The 1924 Act was pushed by heritage America, including their elites, as a way of stopping the invaders. It wasn't led by the invaders. Many Irish, Italians, and Jews mostly fought it (Samuel Gompers being a notable exception). 

It's not inconceivable that having their noses rubbed in the reality that American democracy is becoming a skins game and begrudgingly coming to the conclusion that there is no place on the contemporary left for white men, a sizable enough fraction of SWPLs and BernieBros could join the increasingly-restrictionist GOP to pass an updated Johnson-Reed Act a century after the first one.

That's way off on the optimistic end of my probability assessment, but it's not totally unfathomable. As I wrote there, we are both ecstatic about the results of the 14th district's primary, albeit for very different reasons. 

If Ocasio is anyone in an unfolding historical reboot, she's the 21st century's Emanuel Celler, operating just down the road from where he did. As a young Jewish congressman, he fought tooth and nail against the Act. But heritage America rolled over the invader opposition and enacted a severe curtailing of immigration from recent sources of 'new Americans'. 

Celler got his revenge on heritage America four decades later. If an the PoC coalition is unable to stop the 2024 Moratorium and Assimilation Act and it stands until Ocasio is finally able to overturn it in 2065, well, that buys us another forty years. We fight the battles that are in front of us, for ourselves and our posterity.

21 comments:

IHTG said...

Oh, I don't know. O'Malley got elected in Baltimore, didn't he? A corrupt enough non-white establishment figure, somebody of the same type as Senator Bob Menendez from New Jersey, could probably be taken down by the right sort of white progressive primary challenger even in a very non-white district.

By the way, you've got to love the reactions to this tweet from distraught Hillbots: https://twitter.com/Ocasio2018/status/1000461154504855552

216 said...

The starter problem is that the white guy would not get the DSA endorsement. Are there any Hispanic Dems representing majority white Dem districts?

It is galling that DSA is able to present itself as both revolutionary but also representing the so-called mainstream of "developed countries". DSA is far-left and Venezuela and South Africa is what happens when they get power. You aren't getting Scandinavian Socialism without a demographic supermajority of Scandinavians that practice a monolithic Lutheranism. (Closest you would get here is Utah, which coincidentally has our lowest inequality) And I wouldn't be praising the Nordics that much, especially if the Sweden Democrats come in first this October.

DissidentRight said...

Deus Vult.

In any case our policies and goals remain the same. No retreat, no surrender, only attack.

Can Invader-Americans tolerate the Wall?
Can they tolerate a moratorium?
Can they tolerate English as a national language?
Can they tolerate anti-discrimination policies being broadly applied to them?
Can they tolerate the repeal of Affirmative Action?
Can they tolerate being force-fed American history in the public schools?
Can they tolerate the abolition of welfare?
Etc.

Sooner or later they crack, assuming the economy doesn't crack first. If they don't, we win by default. If they do, we send them home.

Audacious Epigone said...

IHTG,

Back in 1999? A lot has changed since then. The skins game has progressed enormously after two decades of massive Latin American invasion. See O'Malley's performance in 2016!

Looking at the wiki article--and I have no prior knowledge of the race so I may be missing something--it looks like there was a black guy Mfume, the NAACP head shortly after I think, who would've won easily if he'd run but he chose not to so that O'Malley basically ran unopposed.

216,

The DSA's endorsement list includes one (token?) white guy--to four black women. Open your eyes, people!

DissidentRight,

So simple. The biggest question of the 21st century is whether or not the West has the will to survive. That's the only thing that is holding us back. Easy to identify. Hard as hell to change.

Sid said...

AE,

"The DSA's endorsement list includes one (token?) white guy--to four black women. Open your eyes, people!"

This is part of a broader phenomenon in which white men are finding it increasingly more difficult to find representation and even career opportunities. The Silent Generation and the older Boomers don't have to worry about this. Younger Boomers and older Generation X might be worried about the trends, but they've been so indoctrinated and are so along their careers that they will be able to ride the anti-white wave, even though Generation X will soon have to acknowledge that perhaps their highest career aspirations won't be realized.

Oh, but for younger Generation X and Millennials? They have plenty of threats to their careers. I'm a Millennial, and it seemed like the door to career pathways was slammed in our face just when we were ready to step through.

Generation Z already knows this, so Millennials will be the next Generation Z, if you will, and that says nothing about Generation Alpha.

The SWPL way was to mouth off all the right things about Diversity, and maybe even believe in it in the abstract (while living in all-white neighborhoods of course), and then advance through the SWPL ranks. White male Millennials who grew up on watching Jon Stewart in the 2000s were ready for that, but the doors are being slammed in their faces in all of the SWPL organizations and businesses in which they thought they would be advancing.

Right now, white Millennial women and gays are still protected. Gays will probably always be protected until Muslims are far enough ascendant, but in certain woke circles, it's become acceptable to bash white women because a majority of them voted for Trump.

The happiness I felt when Ocasio won will be dwarfed when a young white Millennial woman gets shut down for being a WYWOMYN. Unmarried white women voting like white men and married white women will secure our position even further.

IHTG said...

https://twitter.com/Steve_Sailer/status/1013689662517284865

Anonymous said...

@Sid

SWPLs don't live in all-white neighborhoods. This is the biggest misconception your side has about SWPLs. Our neighborhoods are filled with Jews, Asians, and Subcontinentals. We have high intermarriage rates with these groups. They are our neighbors, classmates, roommates, friends, teachers, students, and colleagues.

Jig Bohnson said...

@Anonymous:

There are different kinds of SWPLs though. There are the urban hipster kind, who yes, because of their locations live in proximity to plenty of NAMs. However there are also the upscale suburban kind, and there are also the flee to Boulder / Vermont kind. (Note: both of those may or may not at a previous phase of life been the urban hipster kind.) The latter two types are the ones people have in mind when they speak of SWPL hypocrisy in regard to NAMs. In reality it is more epic lack of self-awareness rather than intentional hypocrisy, but emphasis on epic.


Look, I personally have relatively high regard for SWPLs actually. I overlap with them a lot in lifestyle. My adult life (before kids anyway) was basically a constant parade of high IQ knowledge economy employment, craft alcohol and food, and interesting international travel. But generally SWPL doublethink on race (and that means on NAMs - nobody cares about East Asians and Brahmins) is glaring with the brightness of a thousand suns, and their overall complete lack of self-awareness of that doublethink is off the charts.

Black Death said...

According to NPR (hardly a member of the vast right-wing conspiracy) on January 20, 2017, Barack Obama was dubbed "Deporter-in-Chief" by Latino USA, an immigrant activist group. So this whole immigrant-family separation-save-the-children stuff is just a pile of BS, pure hype by the corrupt MSM. Obama was doing pretty much the same thing and nobody cared.

BTW, Nobel Prize winning economist Milton Friedman, the welfare state and open borders are mutually exclusive.

Anonymous said...

It looks like Ocasio-Cortez may have won due to high young white turnout and non-Hispanic votes:

https://theintercept.com/2018/07/01/ocasio-cortez-data-suggests-that-gentrifying-neighborhoods-powered-alexandria-ocasio-cortezs-victory-over-the-democratic-establishment/

"In fact, Crowley — Irish-American and from Queens — was presumed to do better there than Ocasio-Cortez — Puerto Rican and from the Bronx — who was expected to carry her home borough. But Romalewski mapped out the votes across the district, and what he found was the exact opposite of the pundits’ conclusion: Crowley, known until last week as the “king of Queens,” was crushed almost everywhere, but he did better in the Bronx.

“You can also see that most of her votes, the strongest vote support, came from areas like Astoria in Queens and Sunnyside in Queens and parts of Jackson Heights that, number one, were not predominantly Hispanic, so they’re a more mixed population, and are areas where — this is kind of a term of art — are in the process of being gentrified, where newer people are moving in,” said Romalewski."

Anonymous said...

Thanks for fixing the text color, AE.

Joe Suber said...

Gen X here: We can't believe the establishment is so done, over, through. It really is all about color now, and I for one don't like it. It was never supposed to get like this, we were so nice, and we really tried to get along, and can't they see how hard we tried? We even moved in to their neighborhoods and opened little SWPL shops and drove up the property value and sent our kids to their schools. All we wanted in return was for them to like us, and let us decide who the Democrats that represent us ALL would be. We just wanted some professional public policy, you know, like the nice Denmark people. (What do you call them?) Is that too much to ask? I guess so.

216 said...

Black Death,

Obama's deportations were a triangulating effort. Hispanics aren't numerous enough to swing a presidential election, their turnout rates are also horrid. He was still going to win their vote by a huge margin no matter what he did. The deportations also prevented real terms wage declines among low income workers, otherwise known as the Dem base. At the same time Obama never lobbied for E-Verify, and resumed the traditional shilling for mass immigration after his re-election when deportation numbers collapsed. Not surprisingly the Dems lost the Senate in '14, and nearly lost New Hampshire and Virginia (Gaffe machine in NH, bad turnout in VA)

216 said...

Joe,

You didn't offer voluntary reparations and the hand of your daughters in marriage. Your huwhite privilege is showing, colonizer.

Zeroh Tollrants said...

Bullshit. I'm a middle aged white SWPL-living person. We have one Asian family, one black family & one Hispanic family in our gated neighborhood. .
None of them interact with the whites in our neighborhood.
White upper class SWPLs live in whiter areas than the Klan.

Anonymous said...

Now this is interesting.

https://www.city-journal.org/html/joseph-crowleys-defeat-15995.html

"This newly drawn district proved perfect for Ocasio-Cortez, who beat Crowley not just among Latinos but also in many white areas, where “woke” Bernie Bros voted but the Democratic Party organization couldn’t turn out the vestiges of its old ethnic base. Crowley carried only the relatively small black vote."

We might be seeing the high water mark of black power in the US. Without their white allies, they will be political orphans.

Skeptic

Zagg said...

@ Joe Suber: Nicely done. You’ve nailed them.

Audacious Epigone said...

Sid,

You thought you were part of the solution, white ally? The allies are just auxiliaries. They're expendable.

What makes it especially cutting for young white men is that the employment stats for companies include the legacy boomers and early Xers. Those ranks are whiter than the general population, so millennials have to pay the price twice to compensate for the white and male overrepresentation of the most tenured employees.

IHTG,

Interesting, I appreciate Shor doing that analysis. That the most leftist whites in the country, many of them with a sense of entitlement mixed with real world downward mobility (struggling in Queens rather than making it in Manhattan), voted alongside Hispanics for a Hispanic doesn't change the broader importance of the election, symbolically and otherwise.

Anon,

They like to pretend as though they mix it up, but the data don't lie. The GSS shows white liberals are indistinguishable among white moderates and conservatives in terms of how many non-white acquaintances they have (very few). Or we can look at this interactive Census map. Or the attempt to feed Sun People into Ice People public schools in New York. They morally posture. They don't actually do much mixing.

tl;dr -- Zeroh is correct.

Jig,

Exactly. I have a decidedly mid-brow temperament and sensibility and don't really enjoy the SWPL pretentiousness and affectation, but it's harmless. Except for the part about making it harder for whites who weren't born with as much privilege as most SWPLs are, that is.

Anon,

Thanks for the heads-up, I hadn't even noticed.

Joe,

And how will they respond to that? By lecturing you on your privilege and mocking you for not understanding how great you have it!

Skeptic,

Once that happens, we will have entered a new political landscape. In this case, though, I suspect no one really knew Crowley would do best among blacks and poorly among everyone else, so it may be a case of people being caught unawares. Hopefully will get a national test of it soon (like in the 2020 Dem nomination campaign, with someone like Sanders or Warren against Harris or Booker).

Random Dude on the Internet said...

One of the interesting things about Ocasio and Crowley is just how low of a turnout it was. So is it that Ocasio won because she was intersectionally #woke enough or did she just take advantage of a guy who was too worried about being Pelosi's replacement as House Minority Leader to care about his home district and got swept out of office? Primaries and elections occasionally have these moments. It happened with Eric Cantor a few years ago. A decade ago, it happened to Tom Daschle, who forgot what state he represented and got knocked out by John Thune. In that respect, Ocasio's victory isn't that impressive. If Crowley were to run as an independent, he might just win. However, he will be forever known as the white man who beat out a proud latinx so he will be persona non grata so it probably isn't worth pursuing.

Anonymous said...

Epigone,

"Once that happens"

? Once what happens?

Skeptic

PS The blacks in that area tend to be far from underclass. Don't be fooled by the Bronx section. They were mostly in Queens, and if they were motivated to vote on a day when most didn't even know a primary election was going on, educated enough to know what was at stake. They are probably sick at heart about Ocasio-Cortez. They see it (quite rightly) as the handwriting on el muro (the wall).

Random Dude,

The turnout was low but I suspect it would have been the same had the turnout been high.

Call it a random sample.

That district has become Hispanicized.

Epigone -

If the Democratic machine had any brains they would have seen this and gently eased out the Irish geezer and put a compliant Hispanic poodle in his place. But they didn't and this cute upstart kicked over the apple cart. The Dem machine is no more intelligent than the Republican establishment.

Skeptic

Audacious Epigone said...

Random Dude,

That's a great question. Out of curiosity, I looked at the last time my district had a primary who challenged our rep. It drew well over twice as many voters as NY's 14th, our district is less Republican than the 14th is Democrat.

Skeptic,

Once Dem whites are able to vote en masse against the chosen black candidate in Dem primaries. Hillary beat Obama in both whites and Hispanics in the 2008 primaries, but she got obliterated by him among blacks, so he won the nomination. In 2016, Bernie probably narrowly won both whites and Hispanics (it's hard to tell since the media declared Hillary the winner *before* the California primary took place). But Hillary obliterated him among blacks, so she won the nomination.