Sunday, March 11, 2018

Handicapping the 2018 mid-terms

From Reuters-Ipsos polling, the percentages of adults, by selected demographics, who are "certain to vote" in the 2018 mid-term elections (N = 12,155):


Excepting Jews (the blue wave!), all the bars look pretty good for the GOP's prospects--except for the presidential candidate those polled voted for in 2016, and that's a big one.

Another poll shows Republicans only enjoying a 55%-45% edge among whites in a two-way race on a generic ballot.If that comes to pass we're looking at a congressional massacre. On the other hand, this is Reuters, an outfit that regularly inflates Democrat polling numbers.

Firing legal shots at the fugitive state everyone else loves to hate is an encouraging move, but Trump has to really feed the base in the next six months if he doesn't want to spend the next two years dealing with impeachment proceedings loosely tied to the Fake Russia perjury trap.

A lot will depend on what Democrats do. Will it be the moderate white guy play a la Northam in Virginia and Jones in Alabama, or will it be a ballot pulled from the Coalition of the Fringes? Diane Feinstein's fate will likely be a leading indicator. Early polling suggests (((Feinstein))) will blow her halfling challenger out. If she does, 2018 is going to be tough.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Do we have actual data on vote-shares by race from previous elections?

Audacious Epigone said...

Hail,

Yeah, Pew does a nice job tracking them here. It looks like 2018 will be the new non-Obama normal, albeit downshifted across all groups since mid-terms never get as many people out as presidential elections do.

Jim Bowery said...

Migrations from deep blue states to Trump swing states aren't going to affect this election but for 2020 and beyond the American Community Survey county-to-county migration flows will become of increasing interest.

Sid said...

For the base...

Trump should take public and concrete steps to get the Wall underway. If we feel assured that construction for the Wall will be soon underway, his base will feel inspired to get out and vote Republican.

For the normies...

If Trump can do what was considered unthinkable just a year ago and produce promising results from talks with North Korea, then the narrative the DNC produced about Trump being a warmongering madman will be shot up bad. Trump's claims that he would be a crack deal maker will be wholly substantiated.

Audacious Epigone said...

Jim,

Undoubtedly there are groups like the ones Project Veritas exposed during the presidential election cycle who are working to strategically distribute Puerto Ricans across the purple-state country.

Sid,

Right. Trump's election was a referendum on a wall, and the wall--or lack thereof--is going to be a referendum on his presidency.

Uncle Max said...

Huge will be North Korea... and if Kennedy retires. And based on last night's rally, Trump is going to work his ass off to drive turnout. He knows he needs more help. I think it's going to be epic... Why not? He's defied everything else up to now..

rien said...

"On the other hand, this is Reuters, an outfit that regularly inflates Democrat polling numbers."

The dems need to present themselves in the best possible light given the cash situation at the DNC. If they show weakness in polling numbers, they will be abandoned by the financiers. Hence the pools will be favourable all the way.

Audacious Epigone said...

Uncle Max,

Concrete (heh) steps on the wall for the base and the importance of a Kennedy replacement for the reluctant tradcons are two crucial pieces to the victory puzzle.

rien,

Yeah, though recently they have had some success after the blowing a lot of money fruitlessly.

Random Dude on the Internet said...

I think the lesson that needs to be learned here is that Republicans can no longer just sit on their hands and expect their high agency base (read: middle class whites) to show up and handle business. They need outreach programs every bit as extensive as the Democrats have. I've seen a lot of articles where the GOP beams widely about how much they're getting in donations versus the Democrats but I see very little of it being spent in areas that matters, which is getting their not so high agency base (read: working class whites) to the polls. We need the white equivalent of fried chicken and Newports to hand out for getting on the bus to go vote.

I think the Republicans have a chance to maintain or make modest gains. I expect them to lose some and win some. I expect the cuckservatives to keep getting purged from the party, which results in some losses, but then I expect shitlord nationalists to make gains in former blue areas, which results in some wins. They might cancel out, give or take. That's fine. I'm not expecting a 2010 style BTFO of the already weak Democrats. I'd be fine with some gains in the Senate and holding off losses in the House. That's my expectation.

It's an election cycle the right is going to have to take seriously. A lot of assumptions are going to get tossed out the window so a lot of old GOP playbooks are going to have to be jettisoned, these midterms are going to have to be taken every bit as seriously as the presidential elections. Our goal is to convince our shitlord friends and family that it's worth voting in November. It can be done.

alex69elijah9yaki said...

what percentage of the white vote does the GOP needs to maintain a majority in the house of representatives?

Audacious Epigone said...

Random Dude,

It's infinitely frustrating to continue to get the same sort of stupid GOP mailers I received back in the Bush years (to my eternal shame, I donated $5 to Bush's re-election campaign in 2004 and have been on the RNC mailing list ever since. I donated a lot more than than to Trump, though, so I guess the Stupid Party has probably broken even on me again).

Has anyone done an analysis on the Republicans who aren't standing for reelection? My sense is they are mostly cucks. Maybe I'll take a look at their immigration score cards compared to those who are running again. My sense is that many of the open border shills are beginning to see the writing on the wall and want to cash out while they can (Bob Corker, Jeff Flake, etc).

Alex,

60% is the bar that has to be cleared. Anything under that and it'll be dicey. Under 55% and it'll be a massacre.