Sunday, January 25, 2015

State IQ estimates (2013)

Like presidential elections, it has become standard for updated state IQ estimates based on NAEP scores for 8th graders on math and reading tests to be offered here every four years (for estimates based on 2005 and 2009 NAEP results, please click on the corresponding links).

The scores for both tests are on a 500 point scale, with a designed standard deviation of 50. In the proceeding table, these are converted into IQ estimates with a mean of 97.4--corresponding to the national average NAEP scores of 283.62 for math and 266.02 for reading--and a standard deviation of 15. The math and reading scores are given equal weighting.

I'm operating under the presumption that the average IQ in the US is 98. The reason the IQ estimates are based on a national mean of 97.4 is to take into account private schools, whose students on average score 15 points higher on the math test and 19 points higher on the reading test, corresponding to an estimated 5.1 IQ advantage over their public school counterparts. Representing one-tenth of the school age population, this yields a national average of 98. The estimates assume that the private school advantage relative to public schools is equal across states. That is, the public school score, plus 5.1 multiplied by the percentage of a state's students enrolled in private schools, gives the state's overall estimated average IQ.

Again in the spirit of the 2004 IQ hoax, states are colored in accordance with the way their populations voted in the 2012 Presidential election. Light red (blue) indicates the margin of victory for Romney (Obama) was less than 10%; dark red (blue) indicates it was 10% or more:

1. Massachusetts102.2
2. New Jersey101.4
3. New Hampshire101.0
4. Vermont100.9
5. Minnesota100.4
6. Pennsylvania100.0
7. Maryland99.8
8. Washington99.8
9. Montana99.6
10. Connecticut99.5
11. Ohio99.5
12. Colorado99.5
13. Wisconsin99.1
14. North Dakota99.1
15. Maine99.1
16. Wyoming99.0
17. Kansas98.9
18. Idaho98.9
19. Virginia98.8
20. South Dakota98.8
21. Indiana98.8
22. Nebraska98.8
23. Iowa98.6
24. Utah98.4
25. Illinois98.3
26. Delaware98.3
27. Rhode Island98.2
28. Missouri98.2
29. Oregon98.2
30. Kentucky98.1
31. Texas98.1
32. North Carolina98.0
33. New York98.0
34. Florida97.6
35. Hawaii97.4
36. Michigan97.4
37. Tennessee97.1
38. Georgia97.1
39. Alaska96.8
40. South Carolina96.7
41. Arizona96.3
42. Arkansas96.3
43. Nevada96.3
44. California96.0
45. Oklahoma95.9
46. Louisiana95.5
47. West Virginia95.0
48. New Mexico94.7
49. Alabama94.5
50. Mississippi94.2
51. District of Columbia92.8

And a map of the same. The darker the state's shading, the higher it's estimated average IQ:

Proximity to the Canadian border continues to show salubrious effects. Cold is good for the constitution, dontcha know!

The Department of Defense entry might reasonably be colored dark red rendering it, rather than Montana, the strongest showing among solidly GOP 'states'. Red-staters' creme de la creme in governmental positions, yikes!

This is the third set of IQ estimates I've comprised based on NAEP data. The inter-year correlations are strong, .91 between 2005 and 2009, and .97 (p-value =  1.6E-30) between 2009 and 2013. One state has shifted upwards markedly, however. Maryland was 34th in 2005, 11th in 2009, and 8th this time around. As those able to feed at the public trough eat ever more gluttonously, gentrifying out NAMs and white plebes, the scholastic performance of the entire state rises. It's almost as if our political masters behave privately in a way that is diametrically opposed to the diversifying ideals they sing paeans to in public!


Dan said...

Can this be broken down by race? California's school system for example (or Texas') could be excellent taking into account the inputs for instance.

Anonymous said...

Your table just shows that prole Whites are not God's chosen people. I hate how when a lot of pro-White people say they are pro-White, they really mean they are for prole Whites and against middle middle class, upper middle class, and upper class Whites.

On a pro-White website a few weeks ago one woman literally claimed that West Virginian Whites had higher SAT scores than all other White Americans. She was blatantly lying.

If anything, the White elite who go to New England prep schools are God's chosen people. The statistics show that high class Whites outperform low class Whites in education, IQ, employment, law-abidingness, and family stability. Even Asians and Jews outperform prole Whites in these areas.

Anonymous said...

The darker the state's shading, the higher it's estimated average IQ

Bwahaha! They never miss a trick.

Anon at 8:54

Typical white-hating concern troll. Furthering genocide with a little divide and exterminate. Apparently there's some sort of loose organization that encourages these trolls to adopt sites like this.

Anonymous said...

@anon at 10:24pm

I don't hate White people. I love most White people, as long as they are middle class or higher. I also hate lies and love the truth. If you want to deny the fact that White West Virginians have higher teen pregnancy rates and lower high school graduation rates than White New Hampshirites, you are anti-truth.

bleach said...

How deplorable that class (modern definition: Income) alone determines whom you hate or love.

Anonymous said...


Class is more than just income. It is also about IQ, educational level, family structure, and social values. A lottery winner whose favourite hobby is watching NASCAR is still low class. Meanwhile, low income graduate students are mostly from good social backgrounds.

Steve Sailer said...

Texas outscored California back in 1960 on the federal government's post-Sputnik Project Talent test of most of the 15 year olds in the country.

Audacious Epigone said...


Using 2005 data, I broke results down by race. See here. It looks like the ManyEyes (an IBM spinoff) application I used to make corresponding maps has since become defunct though, so I'll redo at least white estimates.


In 2005, Texas' whites were 17th of 51, California's whites 41st. Texas really stands out among states in southern third of the country.

Mirco Romanato said...

It would be interesting a break up of IQ and actual voters.
In many states less than half and probably around a quarter of voters actually vote. And the voters mean IQ is probably not the same as the population mean IQ.

Low IQ people do not vote as much and like high IQ people.

Audacious Epigone said...


GSS data isn't available at the state level, so the best we're able to do is look at income/education and exit polls by state. Red State Blue State does a fairly good job tackling this, but there is a glaring lack of emphasis on racial differences in partisan affiliations in the book.

This might be of some interest. I'm looking forward to doing the same for the 2012 election when the 2014 GSS data come out.

Anonymous said...

Indians are even stupider than Mexicans or Blacks, hence the results in New Mexico and Oklahome.

Emil Kirkegaard said...

Perhaps you should try regressing your NAEP IQ estimates on my S factor scores. See:

Maybe average all the NAEP estimates, and see if the G x S correlation goes up.