Tuesday, April 05, 2011

Hispanic birth rates declining more steeply than non-Hispanic birth rates

The Arizonan trend showing a steeper decline in the Hispanic fertility rate than in the non-Hispanic black and white fertility rates over the last several years is not an anomaly, but instead illustrative of the same sort of fertility pattern at the national level. Over the three year period from 2007-2009, Hispanic fertility declined at three times the rate of the non-Hispanic white fertility decline. The rates for non-Hispanic blacks, Asians, and Native Americans declined at at a slightly faster clip than for non-Hispanic whites:

This is not to confuse the pace of declines with absolute fertility rates. Hispanics, even in 2009, were still considerably more fecund than non-Hispanics. The following table shows the total fertility rate of women by race in 2007 and also in 2009:

If trends continue at the same pace for each classification (which strikes me as highly unlikely), there will be near birthrate parity, at 50 births per 1000 women, for all five racial groups in 2031--a situation in which the TFR for all groups would be well below what is needed for population replacement to occur.

Thanks to Mark Wethman, who keeps a keen eye on these things, for the heads-up.


Stopped Clock said...

There's still the matter of the average age of the mother, though. Lots of white women wait until their late 20s or early 30s before they have a baby, whereas other groups (except Asians) have averages in the low 20s, and lots of teenage births.

Audacious Epigone said...

Stopped Clock,

Right, though on that front, too, there is some encouraging news--the fertility rate for those 24 and under is falling much faster than the rate for those 25+.

Painlord2k said...

Could be that Europeans were the firsts to be hit by the modern world way of life and, as they enter the modern world, other groups are hit the same?
Urbanization hit hard and force a drop in birth rates.
This is happening in all the world (Africa lag behind).

Could be that, as they were the first to be hit, they will be the first to adapt and will be the first to restart to grow?