Thursday, December 07, 2006

Immigration reformers fare better than GOP on whole in midterms

After the mid-term elections last month, I posted on an analysis done by Roy Beck's NumbersUSA on the results. The immigration reductionist group reported that only 6.7% of Tom Tancredo's Immigration Reform Caucus lost their seats, while the GOP gave up 11.5% of its own. It's not clear if seats made vacant by retirement or resignation were included in computing either figure, but in either case the caucus figure appears too high. I've the six caucus members that lost their seats listed below.

This isn't an apples-to-apples comparison, as four of the IRC's 105 members are Democrats. But Numbers combined the relatively strong IRC performance with the dismal performance of GOP members outside the caucus. The organization could've spun the numbers more positively than it did.

Transferring the caucus status of seats thrown up for grabs due to a would-be incumbent not running for re-election to the Republican candidate trying to fill the seat (with the would-be incumbent followed by the candidate who ran to fill his spot), Republican members of the IRC suffered a loss rate of 5.9% as a group (six of 101) . The victims were:

Hayworth, AZ
Beauprez/O'Donnell, CO
Ryun, KS
Bradley, NH
Sweeney, NY
Taylor, NC

Republican Congressional members not party to the caucus suffered a loss rate of 16.7% as a group (22 of 132). The victims were:

Kolbe/Graf, AZ
Pombo, CA
Simmons, CT
Johnson, CT
Foley/Negron, FL
Clay Shaw, FL
Chocola, IN
Hostettler, IN
Mike Sodrel, IN
Nussle/Whalen, IA
Leach, IA
Northup, KY
Bass, NH
Kelly, NY
Boehlert/Meier, NY
Ney/Padgett, OH
Hart, PA
Weldon, PA
Fitzpatrick, PA
Sherwood, PA
DeLay/Seklua-Gibbs, TX
Green/Gard, WI

Numbers should've asked readers to consider that only 5.9% of IRC GOPers lost their seats, while 16.7% of non-caucus members did. If Beck's game was tendentiousness instead of honesty, he could've even trimmed the IRC loss rate to 5.7% by including its Democratic members (none of whom lost their seats).

Expect Tancredo's caucus to become more bipartisan during the next Congress. Both the Republican and Democratic parties have both become skeptical of open borders. The threat comes from the leadership of both parties.

Looking forward to 2008, the continued Iraq disaster will increasingly tarnish not just the GOP, but the Democratically-controlled Congress as well. If the open-bordered agenda remains a top priority of the Bush Administration and Pelosi (who employs Hispanic menials at all three of her businesses), hopefully candidates running on pro-sovereignty, anti-nation building will be able to run in opposition to the 'political establishment'.


Naughty or Nice List said...

Pretty heavy stuff!

I love going from blog to blog seeing what people are up to in other parts of the world.

If you have a minute visit my site. It is setup as a family joke. We've put Jimmy C’s wish list on it to determine if he has been naughty or nice this year.

The big guy needs all the support he can get. Take a minute to vote. It's all in good fun.

JSBolton said...

Thank goodness some people have energy and concern for truth enough to counter the left and right media misrepresentations on these points.