Monday, November 05, 2018

Predictions for 2018 midterms

Richard Spencer's outfit, the National Policy Institute, has a series of posts I contributed to. The literary portions are, for the most part, not mine. I'm an Austrian economically so the institute's description isn't the one I'd give, for example, but there is not in my mind anything implausible included.

I've followed Spencer for a long time, when he maintained a webiste called Alternative Right several years before the shorthand became a household phrase, back in the early Vanguard days (the podcast of radical traditionalism!). But I hadn't ever talked to him in any detail until this. It was a pleasure. He's a real human person with real feelings and real vulnerabilities.

He offered both to pay and give attribution but as is my MO both were politely declined. Regarding the former, our side of the great divide isn't flush with cash like our tormentors are. Donations and payments are a zero-sum game. I'd rather them find their way to others. Regarding the latter, this post is sufficient.

He's a strategic visionary, I'm a tactical incrementalist; he's high-brow, I'm distinctly middle-brow. As a consequence, I'm not always on the same wavelength as he is but as the duration suggests, I've always found him engaging and very often intellectually novel. He's the first to admit he's had some missteps, but he's been bleeding and sweating in an arena where for most of his adult life. He's fearless.

Anyway, the prediction I twisted his arm into publishing is Ds 225, Rs 210 in the House and Ds 48, Rs 52 in the Senate. The former is based on having tracked reported enthusiasm for several months and on the two-way split in R-I's congressional mid-term poll with the shakeout presumed to mirror the popular vote, handicapped 3 points net to account for Reuters-Ispos's leftward bias. The latter sees Missouri and North Dakota flipping to the GOP and Nevada back to the Democrats.

If you'll indulge me, offer yours in the comments. Virtual reputational skin in the game!

86 comments:

Surly said...

Sheesh, that NPI post is a downer.

Matt Forney said...

Senate: GOP makes at least one net gain, possibly two. They win North Dakota and Missouri, possibly lose Arizona. They could possibly win Indiana but the Libertarian's good polling there makes that dicey.

House: too close to call. If the Dems win control (or the GOP keeps it), it'll be by a narrow (less than 15 seats) margin. The court-ordered Pennsylvania redistricting means that the GOP will inevitably lose seats.

State Races: Illinois, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico governorships won by Democrats. Alaska governorship won by Republicans. Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin leaning Dem but not guaranteed. All other seats retained by incumbent party.

Realist said...

I see the Deep State winning....again.

Anonymous said...

Democrats make HUGE gains because they see that Republicans are the party of angry white men who do not want to give up their unfair privilege and primacy.

The right wing is what happens when men are too socially inept to ever find a girl who would want to touch them even with fork. They grow bitter and look back to "happier" times when men could just demand sex and loyalty from women. The whole alt-right movement is based on sexual frustration. It's no secret that women tend to prefer progressives to boring conservatives. Thus, these people absolutely hate the left. It won't do them any favours with women though. Luckily, the problem will solve itself. They will die without spreading their faulty genes. Evolution in action, sorting out the trash.

Toddy Cat said...

Hi, Tiny, glad to know that you're OK! Still not getting any, eh?

chris said...

Anonymous = John P Scott from Lion's blog?

https://lionoftheblogosphere.wordpress.com/2018/11/06/election-today/

"The Democrats will make huge gains because normal people see that angry white men have taken over the Republican party.

The right wing is what happens when men are too socially inept to ever find a girl who would want to touch them even with fork. They grow bitter and look back to “happier” times when men could just demand sex and loyalty from women. The whole current right wing movement is based on sexual frustration. It’s no secret that women tend to prefer progressives to boring conservatives. Thus, these people absolutely hate the left. It won’t do them any favours with women though. Luckily, the problem will solve itself. They will die without spreading their faulty genes. Evolution in action, sorting out the trash."

John Deston said...

@Anonymous 11/6/18, 7:05 AM

Democrats, as usual in denial of reality:

A study published in 2017, conducted by Professor Nicholas H. Wolfinger, examined the sex lives of Democrats, Republicans and Independents. Independents and Republicans are more likely to have sex at least once a week than their Democrat peers, the study showed.

“This finding left me curious about how specific components of relational bliss might be affected by political leanings. The answer is surprising: Republicans have more sex than Democrats and cheat less on their spouses. Political independents have sex even more often than Republicans but cheat at the same rate Democrats do,” Wolfinger, a University of Utah professor, explained in the Institute for Family Studies report.

Wolfinger based his study on a question from the General Social Survey, asking respondents “about how often did you have sex during the last 12 months?” Wolfinger found that Independents are 22 percent more likely to have weekly sex than Democrats, while Republicans are 11 percent more likely after controlling for age, sex, ethnicity and year the survey was taken.

Anonymous said...

It's a shame, but I don't think we'll keep the House.

Then again, I didn't think Trump would win either, despite voting for him. So I'm open to being pleasantly surprised yet again :D

I remain hopelessly optimistic about it all. I don't think whites are going quietly into the night regardless.

Anonymous said...

Oh, such nattering nabobs of negativism.

All is well with the GOP. Look at real EV numbers, not the distorted polls. We'll know tonight, anyway.

Senate: GOP net gains between 3 to 5 seats, even though it loses one = 54-56
House: Harder to predict. I believe a rising tide lifts all boats and the boats that have to be lifted happen to be in the states with highest R turn-out. California may surprise us. Thus, R's hold the house by 1-5 seats.


Mr. Puppykins said...

Iron-clad prediction:

One side will win, another side will lose.

And no matter which is which, Jews will get what they want.

Mr Darcy said...

I agree that the GOP loses Nevada, albeit barely. And *maybe* AZ, although they could eke it out because so many retirees and others in that age group will not have voted early. I find it all but impossible to think the GOP will not flip Montana and Indiana. I could see them not winning Missouri before I could see them not winning Indiana. The number of abject idiots should not be underestimated. But after Kavanaugh, anybody--ANDYBODY--who remains a Dem Party member OR votes for them should be regarded as a Bolshevik. The lines are now VERY clear.

Desantis has not been a good candidate in Florida. They Dems could well win the governor's chair there. Florida is chock-full of carpetbaggers and wogs.

Kipling said...

My natural pessimism says that the GOP will hold the House. Ryan was so much worse for the long-term civilizational cause than Pelosi, who is a loud and clear wake up call.

AE, I don't think you're going to get far with selling us Spencer. He's a trust fund guy without kids. I don't care how many times you get yelled at in the gym, I still don't see skin in the game.

Anonymous said...

Real Clear Politics (RCP) poll tracker has 43D, 49R this morning with 8 races listed as a toss up. Republicans are going to win at least 5 (AZ, IN, MO, NV, TN) of the 8 toss up races, and have a good shot at winning at least one of (FL, MT, WV). Republicans take 54-57 seats in the Senate.

RCP lists the House at 203D, 194R this morning, with 38 toss up races. Giving the Democrats every possible benefit of doubt in the toss up races gives the Democrats 12 of the 38 races, for a total of 215 in the House. I'm going with 225R-210D, plus or minus 3, in the House.

Governor races are harder to call. RCP has 18D, 20R and 12 toss up races. Republicans should win at least 7 (AK, GA, IA, KS, NV, NH, SD) and will likely win WI, so at least 27-28 governor races for Rs.

Anonymous said...

Richard Spencer did his part to give Tim Kaine another term in the Senate, and see up to three House seats lost to the socialists. Whatta guy

pyrrhus said...

I don't have any use for Spencer, but my prediction is +3 R Senate and 221 R House....

Anonymous said...

Kipling,

I used to be a big fan of Spencer too, such a shame. I think he tacked too far, too fast. He tried to be an outrage generator before it was a viable strategy, he may be stuck as the next "david duke" bogeyman unless he finds some way to turn it around.

I like the guy but he made a few mistakes I don't know that he can recover from.

Lance E said...

There's nothing highbrow about Richard Spencer.

I heard some catladies-in-training at work already talking about "voter suppression". They're preparing their postmortem already. Dems are scared.

Audacious Epigone said...

Surly,

There are more. This one is predominately mine.

The great Matt Forney,

Bam, that's the way to lay it out.

Anon,

The psychological projection is strong with this one.

Toddy Cat/chris,

That angry white men would take over the Republican party!

John Deston,

Interesting, though controlling for marriage is obviously important. I've looked at the same questions in the GSS. Republicans/conservatives have more sex, Democrats/liberals have more sexual partners. Neither should be particularly surprising.

Anon,

Burning off dead undergrowth from the House on the GOP side, even if it means being a modest minority, is necessary. Kevin Yoder, the Paul Ryan wannabe in my district, for example, needs to lose.

Mr. Puppykins,

The long-term trajectory for Jews in America is not good. They hate the only people who don't hate them (Christian conservatives). That's a losing formula.

Kipling,

He has two children. He's at replacement. And the guy has a lot of libido, so I wouldn't count him out of ending up above replacement.

Anon,

I think we were too conservative (heh) about the Senate. As I write, though, Orman is not getting anywhere near the 9% polls pegged him to get. I thought 7% or so, since independents always overpoll actual performance, but he's at 5.5% now. Going to be extremely difficult for Kobach to win on that.

pyrrhus,

Looking very prescient at the moment!

Anon,

For what it's worth, he's exactly aware of all of that. One thing he definitely should be given credit for is that he genuinely tries to learn from his mistakes. I don't count him out.

Lance,

One of his favorite philosophers is Hegel. Have you ever tried to read him? Not about him, but his primary sources? It's high-brow hell on earth.

IHTG said...

Good news: Yoder is gone!

Bad news: So is Kobach.

Lesson - Don't try to force these things. It seems more effective to browbeat mainstream GOPers into accepting immigration restriction than elect firebrands. You can bet that after tonight a lot of brows are going to be beaten.

Passer by said...

AE

"He has two children. He's at replacement."

No! 2,09 is replacement! :)

Anonymous said...

I'm so glad Yoder lost.

Passer by said...

AE

"The long-term trajectory for Jews in America is not good. They hate the only people who don't hate them (Christian conservatives). That's a losing formula."

Not so sure about that after seeing Bolsonaro enthusiastically kissing Israeli ass. Maybe in Europe (Muslims are coming..), but not in the Americas, where there will always be plenty of christian cucks. So if Brasil is the future of the US, well - you can see what "far right" Bolsonaro is doing. See his son wearing Mossad T-shirts. Lol..

216 said...

So, to everyone involved in the Charlottesville fiasco:

Your stupidity got Dave Brat removed from the House


Anonymous said...

What's up with these odd governor wins. We're outperforming in precisely the wrong places here.

Ohio and Florida were wins we weren't supposed to get, but we're getting creamed in the House! Alas....

216,

Doubt that had anything to do with it. Normie boomercons NEVER EVER accept that their side is to blame for "racist violence." It's the one good thing about 'dems r the real raciss' nonsense, democrats = KKK loving racists means that whenever the KKK does something dumb, it's the dems fault.

If Brat lost it's because of dem enthusiasm across the board.

Audacious Epigone said...

IHTG,

I voted for the carpet munching feather indian against our incumbent Paul Ryan wannabe myself. He got crushed.

Unfortunately, the nation’s great white hope, Kris Kobach, also got crushed. Bitter loss for me. I spent several hours canvassing for him and I know a lot of people who did way, way more than I did. Lots of red-pilled guys, /our guys/. It's really too bad.

If we’re going to save this country–-and I think we should just break the damned thing up–-that saving is going to come from clannish whites in the South, not from the cuck corridor, which even after a couple of years of Trump Republicanism can’t pivot away from Midwestern Niceness.

Three cheers for Kemp and DeSantis, though. Those were two of the three most important elections tonight, and we won them.

A split congress is fine. We're going to have a big economic downturn between now and 2020, so this gives some culpability for it to Ds. And with such Senate dominance, we just need Ginsburg to die in the next few years and the SCOTUS is ours for a generation.

Passer by,

Ha, agree. He needs to have three!

216 said...

Anon,

Mike DeWine has been in one office or another in this state since the 1980s, he served two terms in the US Senate where he compiled an awful voting record, which he somehow managed to repudiate to return as Attorney General in 2010. The Dem Cordray hasn't lived in the state since losing to DeWine for AG in 2010, he was director of the CFPB in Washington.

DeWine's GOP primary opponent was Kasich's LT Gov, a woman (strike one), with a corrupt husband (strike two) and attempted to be slavishly pro-Trump (strike three). She would have probably lost, and I voted DeWine in the primary based on that.

The incumbent socialist senator, Sherrod Brown, won by much less than was expected by the polls. His opponent was cash strapped and ran a lousy campaign, though far superior to the shitshow nextdoor in PA.

The GOP was BTFO in the Northeast and Midwest. Not a good sign. Gun bans are likely pending the outcome of the legislative elections in the states with new socialist Governors. Said bans should be promptly disobeyed.

Feryl said...

So......

Not much to say about these mid-terms; we're still stuck with the same ideological, geographic, demographic etc. situation that we've been in for going on about 30 years at this point.

The GOP does well in much of the Plains farm belt, the interior West, the South, and among affluent whites situated away from coastal metro areas.The Dems dominate non-white areas and highly expensive metro areas and college towns where verbal and high-tech elites cluster. Working class and young voters tend to be bored by mid-term elections, with outcomes typically reflecting what the area's (relative) upper class wants.

In the Upper Midwest, where Trump vastly out-performed typical Republican candidates, it looks like the GOP is failing in these mid-terms. Trump campaigned on a platform that was not unlike what a pre-NAFTA Democrat would've ran on (with a dash of race-baiting thrown in); it's complete lunacy to expect practically any other Republican to throw their Reagan memorabilia in the trash, and actually go about reforming our trade and military policy to bring greater accountability to these sectors, and start shoring up the economic security of less educated regions that are well-populated but lacking in military investment (e.g., the Upper Midwest). The GOP continues to pander to THE military capital of America, the South, as well as the sparsely populated Plains and interior Western regions. It's true that the GOP continues to do fairly well in the rural parts of the Midwest, but it's not enough to off-set the hostility toward the GOP that one encounters in the metro areas of the region (excluding Xtian cucks and moderately educated but affluent whites).

Both parties remain committed to the ideological over-reach of the last 30 years, which has led to increasingly partisan bickering, straight line voting, and a more jaded and fed-up electorate, around 2/3 of whom are not SJWs or TrueCons. Neither side is willing to let it's devotion to the worst ideas of the last 30-40 years ebb. For the GOP:

- Mass incarceration
- Pandering to the cheap labor desires of rich people and big companies
- Military bubbles
- Federal tax cuts, mainly for the wealthy and borderline wealthy; corresponding tax increases for lower class people (more sales taxes esp. sin taxes, more property taxes, and stagnant or increased payroll taxes)

For the Dems:

-Disinterest in reviving regulations on FIRE
- Not doing more to protect American jobs
- Toxic and aggressive insistence on granting privileges to gays, trannies, etc. at the expense of normies
- PC suppression of candid feelings and humor

216 said...

AE,

From an early standpoint, the GOP is paying the price in the Midwest for its free market fundamentalism. Wisconsin (Foxconn), Michigan (Flint), Kansas (Brownback), Iowa(?), and Illinois (Rauner). In Ohio, thanks to Kasich's hubris in 2011 (unions), the GOP was clobbered and Kasich pivoted to the center and eventually to the left. The GOP in other states didn't learn that lesson. Voters in this region are populist economically, and prefer lavishly funded public services versus the abolition of income taxes. Tax cuts in some form were passed by all GOP controlled states in the Midwest post-2010, and no electoral dividends were reaped. The socialists in Minnesota RAISED taxes, they are about to install two Muslims into high office.

In terms of MN, if you voted Ellison, you should receive the verbal abuse by outsiders that Euros gave to American tourists during the Second Iraq War.

Anonymous said...

216,

Is it really that surprising that Trump couldn't overhaul the party in 2 years to make them stop being idiots on economics?

The GOP is going to have to learn the hard way, we just have to hope they learn quickly enough.

Feryl said...

"If we’re going to save this country–-and I think we should just break the damned thing up–-that saving is going to come from clannish whites in the South, not from the cuck corridor, which even after a couple of years of Trump Republicanism can’t pivot away from Midwestern Niceness."

Actually, the Midwest has been marginalized for eons already. One national politician after another, for 40 years, has (usually) tried to tell the region that the good 'ol days are gonna eventually come back. If we'd have elected Ross Perot, or listened to him, that could've happened. But after the passage of NAFTA proved Perot right, we've yet to have any national leader, or powerful cabal of elites, make any real effort to bring medium (textiles, furniture) to heavier industry back. Why? It gives too much power to American workers. Trump, if he had real support, would've corrected this. But the neo-liberal shitheads of both parties aren't having it.

Those beloved Southerners are the ones chiefly responsible (along with some Westerners and East Coast Irish) for inflating a massive military bubble. We've developed massive Pentagon bureaucracies and dubious military R&D projects (pork), as well as festooned the country and even the globe with military bases, in order to keep scratching the martial itch. Under Reagan and Bush, we saw massive surges in military allocations and foreign ops (compared to what Nixon, Carter, and Clinton did), thereby furthering a sense of entitlement among the military sector, which at this point has a tremendous reach as the now massive number of military careerists and vets have come to expect that the military will remain a large and powerful sector that is above scrutiny and contraction. The Northeast and Midwest responded well to Trump's dissing of neo-conism, in comparison to the more muted reactions from the South and West (where John McCain is hated for siding with Democrats, not because he free based Pentagon pork).

216 said...

Additional bad sign, the sanctuary city ban in Oregon lost 2-1. Again, if you voted NO on this, verbal abuse is what you deserve at a minimum. Amazingly it underpolled the GOP candidate for Governor. Lots of lefty crap sailed through most states on the downballot, the one in Ohio didn't, unsure as to why.

These can't be blamed on POC alone. But don't expect the Postnational Review types to either morally shame POC for being anti-white, or white liberals for not being team players.

Feryl said...

"From an early standpoint, the GOP is paying the price in the Midwest for its free market fundamentalism. Wisconsin (Foxconn), Michigan (Flint), Kansas (Brownback), Iowa(?), and Illinois (Rauner). In Ohio, thanks to Kasich's hubris in 2011 (unions), the GOP was clobbered and Kasich pivoted to the center and eventually to the left. The GOP in other states didn't learn that lesson. Voters in this region are populist economically, and prefer lavishly funded public services versus the abolition of income taxes. Tax cuts in some form were passed by all GOP controlled states in the Midwest post-2010, and no electoral dividends were reaped. The socialists in Minnesota RAISED taxes, they are about to install two Muslims into high office."

I've said it before, I'll say it again:

The 2010 elections were (mistakenly) considered a mandate for more Reaganism. In reality, voters were slapping Obama and the Dems upside the head for not restoring economic fundamentals. The GOP went as far as to run corporate raider Mitt Romney in 2012; never has there been greater evidence of maniacal delusion in our politics.

Furthermore, as elections come and go, the influence of muh free market dolts born in the 1950's and 60's will wane (to the extent that such people still haven't changed their mind), and will be supplanted by those born after 1970 who trend far more towards pragmatic economic regulations and aren't as ideologically extreme and combative as older generations. Worth noting that the 2010's ushered in an era of 40 and 50 something Republican winners, who's day in the spotlight might prove to be short-lived.....Esp. in the Upper Midwest where they attained power only out of the desperation of Midwestern voters tired of the Dems not doing enough. The 2020's will likely see a major rise in 30 and 40 something Dem politicians (and less retarded GOP-ers) who don't jerk off to pictures of Edmund Burke and Newt Gingrich every night.

216 said...

Feryl,

For all the anti-military spending sentiments, when Trump talked about either making NATO pay up or cutting the deployments in Europe, there was a bipartisan establishment freakout. Most euronat parties don't bother to mention US military bases, only the eurocommunists are opposed. It's ludicrous to expect that a far-right fever dream will restore the Kaiser when Ramstein is shut down. But yet many people here believe it.

The US and Russia spend a similar amount of GDP on their respective militaries. The Chinese budget looks small, but appears deceptive when considering that China makes most of its equipment, and benefits from lower cost of production. The undervalued yuan also appears relevant. A good triangulation effort is for Trump to push for a Great Power treaty that restricts new arms purchases.

Feryl said...

"Additional bad sign, the sanctuary city ban in Oregon lost 2-1. Again, if you voted NO on this, verbal abuse is what you deserve at a minimum. Amazingly it underpolled the GOP candidate for Governor. Lots of lefty crap sailed through most states on the downballot, the one in Ohio didn't, unsure as to why."

The bat-shit West Coast needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Long gone.....LONG GONE are the days when they felt invested in what the rest of the country was going through. And the PacNW has long been the country's biggest fruit cake, with much of California and the interior West not being much better.

As for everyone else, the well-educated dominate mid-term elections. According to Hiddentribes, the more educated one is the more partisan and ideological one tends to be, with less affluent people and younger people going to the Dems, and older and wealthier voters feelin' patriotic and voting for the party less likely to touch their wealth (but very well educated rich people going Dem). SJW-ism (and gross pandering to rich people) is likely to be even worse during a mid-term, because working class normies don't exert the influence that they do in presidential elections. Exception? Give people an important referendum during a time of frustration. For example, Cali's mid-90's immigration proposition drew huge levels of middle-lower class turnout, said voters voiced their opinion by voting against benefits for illegals. This was during a somewhat less corrupt time, and also a time when many people hadn't accepted the fact that the elites were beginning to step them in the back more often. Judges would later over-turn the ruling, the sort of thing that has alienated more and more lower class people from voting for anything.

Feryl said...


"The US and Russia spend a similar amount of GDP on their respective militaries. The Chinese budget looks small, but appears deceptive when considering that China makes most of its equipment, and benefits from lower cost of production. The undervalued yuan also appears relevant. A good triangulation effort is for Trump to push for a Great Power treaty that restricts new arms purchases. "

A general rule of thumb here is that the US, Russia/Soviet Union, and China are the three-legged stool of post-WW2 power player competition. Given the increasing arrogance of the US (which exploded in the wake of communism fading in the 80's and 90's), as well as the US doing little to check the growing ambitions of China, it's hard to blame Russia for taking a defensive posture. Some think that the US and Russia will unite to take on bad Muslim sects and/or China, but who knows? We have to consider the lingering prejudice toward Russia, and PC (which makes us less willing to vilify Asians and brown people). Some event involving a Chinese attack on Russia or Japan, or perhaps a Japanese attack on China, could well spark another world war which the US is probably too decadent and soft to win. I don't foresee Putin being overly aggressive without being provoked first, as his foreign policy has so far been oriented towards stopping the growth of radical Islam while his "growing" territory/inlfuence elsewhere is mostly a response to arrogance by the D.C./London/Brussels/Paris/Berlin axis....Which the Western media invariables doesn't put in the proper context.

216 said...

Feryl,

"Esp. in the Upper Midwest where they attained power only out of the desperation of Midwestern voters tired of the Dems not doing enough. The 2020's will likely see a major rise in 30 and 40 something Dem politicians (and less retarded GOP-ers) who don't jerk off to pictures of Edmund Burke and Newt Gingrich every night."

Unsure, what you describe sounds like Macron. Hard to say if Macron staggers on to win another term. His neoliberal policies should produce the needed sugar high, but he's also backtracking on some of his other promises.

Some of it is also the tendency of the "pendulum", the Dems had the Governor of WI, IA and MI during the Bush years, while the GOP had MN during those years. The Dem victory in MN may appear as a lucky break like the GOP win of Indiana in 2016. The victory in Ohio might mark a true realignment, as a tired GOP candidate beat a more competent Dem with few obvious errors.

The GOP majority should refuse to seat Menendez, they stole Alabama, so we steal one of theirs.

Feryl said...

"Unsure, what you describe sounds like Macron. Hard to say if Macron staggers on to win another term. His neoliberal policies should produce the needed sugar high, but he's also backtracking on some of his other promises."

Capitalism itself is underwater with Millennials across the world. Millennials don't care that we beat the Soviets. Countries don't always copy each other. America bit harder into neo-liberalism than any other important country did in the 80's and 90's. America doesn't have Western Europe's powerful labor unions. America never has, and Carter and Reagan destroyed the modicum of power that American's unions enjoyed in the 1950's-1970's. Furthermore, American Silents and Boomers absolutely despised labor unions by the later 1970's, as they believed they were a vehicle for corruption and laziness. This hostility didn't exist in Western Europe to anywhere near the same degree, except perhaps in the UK.

Macron isn't popular. Voters in France and Germany are reacting with predictable hostility to greater attempts to bring their countries even closer to the dreaded individualism (and accompanying cultural and economic great highs and great lows) of the English speaking world.

216 said...

Feryl,

Not related, but your comment about judges, led me to remember this. The Dems won two seats in the Supreme Court of Ohio, when they usually don't win any. It may mark higher Dem intensity, as a significant portion of voters leave the ballot blank here. (1 million less votes cast than for Governor, about 25%). The most significant aspect is the lack of party identification on the ballot, even though candidates are partisan. Irish surnames are known to do well.

Feryl said...

If Brat lost it's because of dem enthusiasm across the board. "

Brat may be a Reaganite with principles (e.g., he genuinely wants to lower spending, not just cut taxes), but he's a Reaganite just the same. If memory serves he got elected during the GOP mania of the early 2010's, by beating Cantor from the right.

Ur Boomer uncles bitching about their money being confiscated by the gubmint is just not going to be saleable to the general population anymore. Sorry.

BTW, The GOP is getting hammered in the Northeast, Per-Capita, they're doing the worst there. Trump is a Yankee, whether the region wants to accept him or not, but he really hurt his party there by not doing enough to wrest the GOP out of the hands of the bible belt and the nuts from out West. Again, we see that the GOP is content to be an essentially dead party in one entire region of the country (excluding New Hampshire) if that means keeping your audience of religious zealots, anti-government extremists and Mexican importers of the South and West.

Jay Fink said...

Mass incarceration was a great idea. It's one of the reasons the crime rate went down so drastically. On a personal level I favor it because I hate criminals with a passion. Having them caged up brings me a great sense of comfort and joy.

216 said...

Feryl,

The Northeast, per Moldbug, is actually the most zealous region of the country. That they hate any historical form of Christianity is non-withstanding. This region will vote for the vile and the corrupt to prevent the South from regaining home rule, and to preserve abortion on demand. The cosmopolitan elite may tout their "enlightenment" but they are a decadent culture that relies upon indoctrination via the university and the media, rather than fertility to sustain their population.

The guy running for Senate in New Jersey openly said he was pro-POZ, and he still lost by 10 points. At least Canada's Maritimes have somewhat higher levels of genuine piety rather than crass materialism and "intellectualism" that is found in the Acela belt.

216 said...

Jay Fink,

Incarceration appears to have the effect of increasing fertility, because it grants "situational alpha" status. There also isn't much to do in prison other than weightlifting. By contrast, house arrest and ankle bracelets don't seem to inspire the same level of swagger. Blacks also tend not to view prison as shameful, in the way that other races do. They tend to see it as a conspiracy to put them "back on the plantation". It also fuels their belief that whitey is keeping them down, when their record stops them from getting a job when they get out.

Rising crime rates, while individually bad, tend to benefit the "law and order" party.

Matt Forney said...

Leaving a comment since I laid out a prediction here and I should be judged on it.

Senate: mostly right. I nailed North Dakota and Missouri, was half-right about Indiana and Arizona (hedged my bets there). Could be proven wrong on Florida and Montana (GOP leading there when I predicted Dem wins) and Nevada (Dems leading there as of this writing). Right on everything else.

House: mostly right. I predicted a narrow majority for whoever won the House, and it looks like the Dems will have 220-230 seats (current NYT estimations: 216 Dems vs. 192 Reps). Thank God Steve King won reelection.

State Races: mostly right. I was dead on with Illinois, Michigan, and New Mexico (not hard with IL and NM, admittedly). Might be right on Nevada and Alaska: Sisolak and Dunleavy are leading as of this comment. Hedged my bets with Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin (predicted they would lean Dem; only the latter went Dem). Was wrong on Kansas (AE will have to explain this; I simply don't understand Western states if they'd vote for a Dem over a populist Republican) and Maine (same). Right on everything else.

Prediction/Drunken Hope: President Trump is able to work the inevitable conflict between the Clinton/Obama wing (pro-neoliberalism, anti-socialist, pro-war) and the DSA/Bernie Sanders wing (anti-neoliberalism, pro-socialist, anti-war) of the Dems to his advantage to keep his agenda going.

Philippe le Bel said...

deep point : polls ARE accurate. I never again want to hear about "wow, size of DJT's rallies ! wow ! EV show a red tsunami ! "the silent majority", all this CRAP.

Good point : the senate. It's just me view from another country or the House is quite useless ?
Very good point : the awfuls Gollum and Abrams are dead.

Very, very, very sad point : Kobach :( :( :(

I REALLY CAN'T UNDERSTAND those midwestern white people voting for those far-leftist democrats, forgotting than the economy is good, and more important, than IMMIGRATION MATTERS.

vok3 said...

@Jay Fink

Mass incarceration is a great idea until you're the one that gets incarcerated over something minor.

The fundamental problem there is one system of law being applied to multiple different types of populations. Blacks and whites in particular; blacks do not want to and are not inclined to live according to white concepts of law and good social order. Forcing them into that box is what has created the American police state. Separate the races and let whites police themselves according to white behavior - while keeping blacks out - and mass incarceration would stop with no negative side effects.

Separation, of course, isn't trivially achievable. One more reason I expect Yugoslavia.


@ Philippe
Francais?

A lot of the midwestern democrat factor is 1) virtue signalling, 2) no direct experience of diversity. It's easy to be socialist en famille. Many of these people truly honestly don't understand that it is possible for people to be different from them; they see brown people and they think the skin color really is the only difference. They identify with them. There's a sort of social immune reaction that has atrophied into total disability. They won't understand it until their own neighborhood is swamped.

216 said...

?

Appears to be throwing away leverage here, in a misplaced triangulation attempt.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1060162807960870913

The goal should be to leverage anti-Pelosi votes in exchange for the Dems coughing up power sharing of committee chairmanships. Or leveraging Tulsi Gabbard's arrogance, and somewhat anti-establishment views, to put her into the speakership with GOP and dissident Dem votes.

snorlax said...

216 -

He's mostly just trolling, but Pelosi is politically toxic everywhere outside San Francisco. An alternative Speaker might end up being (at least relatively) popular, particularly given the hagiographic media coverage he/she/xhe will get.

Passer by said...

Give me beer AE, i told you that there will be relatively large gender gap, similar to the 2016 election.

CNN Exit Poll

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls

White men 60:39
White women 49:49 clearly divided

Gender Gap 21% (+21 +0)

Its actually worse than the 2016 election, where the majority of white women voted Trump.

Republicans were annihilated mostly among white college educated women, where the result is worse than the 2016 election 59D 39R

Also young people were the most pro-democrat group.

Ultimately, on gender issues, the Civiqs poll that i use proved to be more accurate than the Reuters poll you use.

Kipling said...

Alabama's Fetal Personhood proposition passed with flying colors, so expect lawsuits from that to wind their way up to the Supreme Court next year. I'm sure that RBG is going into the cryotube save her last dusty heartbeats for that case.

I'm happy with the split congress, not like the useless GOP majority passed anything of value. Now that Ryan's out, there's hope for better leadership.

Aeoli said...

I did mine at my blog. https://aeolipera.wordpress.com/2018/10/20/midterm-predictions/

I grade myself at a solid B.

Passer by said...

Hot takes from the latest exit poll:

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls

Jews are becoming even more hostile than in the previous election:

2016 71D 23R
2018 79D 17R

Jews are more hostile than latinos and asians. Only blacks are a bit more pro-democrat.

No generation Zyklon among whites, young people are the most left wing group among whites.

snorlax said...

Passer by -

On that subject,

"In your vote today, was recent extremist violence:"

23 The most important factor: 62D 37R
51 An important factor: 51D 48R
9 A minor factor: 38D 60R
9 Not a factor at all: 36D 61R

Thanks a lot for the optics, Bowers. Probably cost us the House and a couple Senate seats.

216 said...

Also worth considering that Spencer (Anglin) may have affected results in his other hometown in Montana. Flathead County is at 56-41, when it went 63% for Trump.


Anonymous said...

Good call, AE.

Anonymous said...

Looks like college educated white women really screwed us here. Also keep in mind that most of generation Z can't even vote yet.

Again, I doubt that "extremist violence" shifted any votes at all. People who said yes to that already had their mind made up either way.

Anonymous said...

Also looks like AE was only off by 4 house seats and 1-2 senate seats. Not bad.

Jig Bohnson said...

@ Feryl:

"Mass incarceration" (don't agree with the term) is not some fringe GOP right wing obsession. It is supported by large majorities and was instituted by both parties. Otherwise I agree with those lists.

What left activists call mass incarceration is really just enforcing our laws. The alternative is a South Africa or Honduras-style predatory society.

snorlax said...

Jig -

Anyone who thinks we have "mass incarceration," I suggest you spend a day at the local courthouse. The proceedings are open to the public. Feryl could do so easily since he seems to have a lot of time on his hands.

I did this as a teenager—a bleeding heart who believed all that "mass incarceration" crap—when I was considering becoming a lawyer, and it was perhaps the decisive event that started my redpilling.

Bail hearings: Personal recognizance, personal recognizance, personal recognizance. Everyone got let go on personal recognizance. A prosecutor only showed up for a few of them, and the judge still let them off on personal recognizance.

Sentencing hearings: Dismissed, dismissed, dismissed. About 90% of them had their charges dismissed and 10% got a month's probation. One guy (one of the small handful of whites) had been arrested 20 times in the past month. The charges were dismissed.

The most severe punishment I saw was an illegal alien (like about half the defendants) who beat his coworker (hospitalized for two weeks) with a tire iron. This was the only one a prosecutor showed up for—she recommended a two year prison sentence. He got four months probation.

Passer by said...

Jews are taking over Congress

https://twitter.com/Czakal/status/1060216700627492865

Jig Bohnson said...

@ snorlax:

Agreed and also people who think we are too hard on crime should just watch a few episodes of Live PD and The First 48. Degenerates everywhere, ruining lives, victimizing innocents, beefing for no reason, and costing the public coffers untold sums in medical care, social services, etc.

Someone should make a crime realism starer pack, featuring some choice Live PD and Frist 48 vignettes. They could even be ones with just white perps to avoid racial triggers. There are plenty to choose from.

216 said...

The exit polls say otherwise

https://twitter.com/NickJFuentes/status/1060264991318855682

"Asians" are now apparently worse than Hispanics. Is Nick fluent in Spanish?

Unknown said...

"He's fearless"

He ran away from a guy who loved being a human toilet to go fix his hair. He believes homosexuality is 'an implicit last stand of white identity'. He's a BernieBro, albeit that he wants ethnonationalism. He still wants an EU, but with white people.

Not to mention he shills for Grindr Greg, and blocks people who remind him of his homosexual comments.

Aeoli said...

I've got no love or hate for Spencer, he just doesn't impress me (also why I believe he's allowed on Twitter), but I'll readily admit his haters do him great credit.

Feryl said...

"Agreed and also people who think we are too hard on crime should just watch a few episodes of Live PD and The First 48. Degenerates everywhere, ruining lives, victimizing innocents, beefing for no reason, and costing the public coffers untold sums in medical care, social services, etc."

Do you think it's easy or cheap to constantly arrest people, hold them in correctional facilities, have them summoned to court many times, sentence them to lengthy terms/probation periods (which will entail monitoring and frequent check-ins/meetings)? No wonder this country is broke.

The actual crime rate has been falling behind the incarceration rate for over 20 years at this point. And it's not as if incarceration itself deters crime, because we don't live in Minority Report, where people are detained before their first crime. Back in the 1970's, 80's, and early-mid 90's, we'd put 20, 30, 40 year old people behind bars, but that didn't stop teenagers from committing crimes. According to Neil Howe, teen crime fell dramatically in the late 1990's, while crime among adults declined more gradually. He says that Boomers and Gen X-ers have shown a marked propensity to ignore social norms, including the breaking of laws, regardless of what society does about it. As older generations have aged, they've aged out of committing a lot of crime. But Millennials have defied the mid-1990's predictions of criminologists, who actually said that Millennials would continue or exceed the crime rates of Boomers and Gen X-ers. This prediction was based on the inability to greatly reduce crime among youthful offenders in the 80's and early 90's, in spite of society devoting more resources to arrest and detain criminals at the time.

The meme that we need to have tens of thousands of people behind bars for decades on end is wearing out. There aren't enough rapes or robberies to justify the furtherance of a de facto police state. Also, the degenerate generation who first started a massive crime wave around 1968, then as older adults in the 80's and 90's became fixated on the notion that we could arrest our way out of crime problems, is waning in influence. Boomers, whether they are committing crimes, or are trying to ruin the lives of anyone who commits the slightest infraction, have destroyed empathy and moderation in how we deal with issues.

Oh, and those TV shows aren't going to talk about the many people who go broke, lose their jobs, lose their relationships, etc., because they were harassed needlessly by overzealous law enforcement and politicians.

216 said...

Feryl,

Re: Oh, and those TV shows aren't going to talk about the many people who go broke, lose their jobs, lose their relationships, etc., because they were harassed needlessly by overzealous law enforcement and politicians.

The prison system as it is designed today is supposed to work as "incapacitation", rather than "rehabilitation". But in practice it functions as "indoctrination" where criminals hone their skill in criminality. There are nowhere near enough guards to ensure security in the prisons, which means that prison gangs exert de-facto control. Guards are almost always underpaid, and susceptible to corruption and threats from gang members on the outside.

I hold no sympathy for leftist notions of "restorative justice", but replacing prison/jail for non-violent crimes with house arrest and wage garnishment would prove a less expensive system. It also holds that the standards of civility among the various racial/ethnic groups in this country are clearly disparate.

Feryl said...


"Gender Gap 21% (+21 +0)

Its actually worse than the 2016 election, where the majority of white women voted Trump.

Republicans were annihilated mostly among white college educated women, where the result is worse than the 2016 election 59D 39R

Also young people were the most pro-democrat group.

Ultimately, on gender issues, the Civiqs poll that i use proved to be more accurate than the Reuters poll you use.

The GOP does best with older middle class whites. When America was much more prosperous, and people wanted to strike it rich, in the 80's and 90's, the GOP began to dominate (compared to how woefully unpopular they were in the 1930's-1970's). Some Gen X-ers are still taking hits off the Reagan bong, but Millennials and Gen Z want to dig up Reagan's grave, take the body, and hang it in front of Fox News's HQ.

For obvious reasons, the partisan dickheads among the older generations are still living in the past, so we just have to wait and see when each party leaves neo-liberalism behind. Whichever party does first will benefit a lot, and the other party will have to learn to shape up, even if that means ultimately being a me-too party for 40-50 years, as we saw when the Dems gained the upper hand in the early 1930's, and the legacy of FDR continued to loom for many decades, to the point that even the GOP in the 1940's-70's was forced to be much further to the Left than they were in the height of the Guilded Age around 1900, and certainly further to the Left than they've been since the second Guilded Age that started around 1980.

The Republicans led the charge in the 80's and 90's to eradicate regulations on "market actors", while imposing draconian punishments on criminals, the homeless, and drug users. This has led to massive levels of immigration, corporate corruption, and off-shoring. As of right now, the key players in each party so far have shown little interest in reviving the economic security and fairness of the 1930's-1970's, with Bernie trying to resurrect this ideology but getting a cold shoulder from both old neo-liberals and young SJWs. But the latter is a loud and obnoxious minority, who alienate older people and young normies from getting more involved. Toxic blowhards could be steering us toward another Civil War, or a disastrously misguided confrontation with Russia. If they're willing to drag us down with them into their personal miasma of rage and insecurity, then how do we stop them? Esp. when those with deep pockets won't rein them in.

216 said...

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2018&fips=12&f=0&off=5&elect=0&def=swg&datatype=county

Interesting swings at the county level in Florida. DeSantis ran up much bigger margins than Rick Scott in '14, in the "southern" part of FL in the North. This is interesting, as this would be the area where Andrew Gillum had the highest name recognition by virtue of being Talahasee mayor.

The Orlando swing can be presumed as the effect of Puerto Ricans. A major investment of federal dollars should be offered to induce the return of PRs to the island. A generous divorce settlement should also be offered.

Not sure about Jacksonville, but that area is rather black. Not sure about the Panhandle either, DeSantis clearly underperformed there, despite being a military veteran.

The Jews in Broward/Palm Beach might have swung harder against Gillum if not for the two terror attacks.

216 said...

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2018&fips=39&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=1&def=swg&datatype=county

Senate map, Ohio.

Globohomo Columbus shows a marked movement against the GOP compared with 2012. The socialist incumbent also had marginal improvements in Southwest Ohio, Northeast Ohio and Northwest Ohio. Appalachia and the otherwise heavily Dem Mahoning Valley went hard for the GOP candidate.

The GOP challenger was from my county, where he was mayor of a mid-size town, then in the House for four terms. He won only 54% of the vote in his home county, running an underfunded campaign that barely beat an unknown primary challenger. Our guy also had ethical problems from his business career, and was otherwise a Chamber shill until hitching his ride to Trump.

If not for Kasich's ego, he could have walked away with this Senate seat.

216 said...

Senate, PA

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2018&fips=42&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=1&def=swg&datatype=county

Barletta was from the Scranton metro, an improvement here, but not enough to win Lackawanna County. Big swings against the GOP in the globohomo Philly burbs.

Marginal swing against the GOP in blue collar Western PA, not just globohomo Pittsburgh.

In 2010, Pat Toomey got 45% of the vote in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), in 2016 Toomey got 40% for re-election. In 2018 Barletta got 32% in Allegheny County.

Barletta got <100k votes than the free market fundamentalist GOP candidate for Governor.

Dem incumbent has the golden name, but not the chops that his father did.

216 said...

Ohio, 2000 President

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=39&year=2000&f=0&off=0&elect=0

Franklin County (Columbus) 48 Gore, 47 Bush

Yesterday, Brown 68, Renacci 32

Some of this can be credited to the mass immigration of refugees into the Columbus area, the rest of the state has a low percentage of foreign born. But a large part of it is the cultural supremacy of the liberal upper-middle income whites. They don't seem to realize that the capital's economy is driven by income collected from the rest of the state. Columbus attracts little contempt from the state at large, given the love for the flagship university's football team.

Feryl said...

"The prison system as it is designed today is supposed to work as "incapacitation", rather than "rehabilitation". But in practice it functions as "indoctrination" where criminals hone their skill in criminality. There are nowhere near enough guards to ensure security in the prisons, which means that prison gangs exert de-facto control. Guards are almost always underpaid, and susceptible to corruption and threats from gang members on the outside."

This is a great point, and the main unintended effect of warehousing delinquents. Criminal networking and mentoring is enhanced by our incarceration system. There's little that can be done to stop this, other than keeping everyone completely physically and verbally isolated from each other. Moreover, learning to "act like a con" is inevitable, esp. when you look at what happens to impressionable minors and very young adults who go to the slammer for a while. Spending a lot of time away from normal society alienates you from it, something that obviously isn't helped by the post-1980 trend of adding more and more restrictions onto an offender's life after they've been released, thereby making them feel like like victims who can't escape the grasp of moralistic witch hunters (and one could certainly make the argument that the impositions placed on released offenders is out of step with Western periods of idealism and progress, one of which includes the period of our country's founding, during which the term 'liberty" came to be elevated as the pursuit of peace and freedom for as many people as possible.

Ja D said...

An interesting result.

Jig Bohnson said...

Oh, and those TV shows aren't going to talk about the many people who go broke, lose their jobs, lose their relationships, etc., because they were harassed needlessly by overzealous law enforcement and politicians.

The beauty of Live PD in particular is that it is live. They don't choose what to show - they show it all. They simply follow around a cop with a camera and broadcast whatever happens. That's why it is such a thorough debunking of the leftist position and rhetoric on crime and policing in America.

Without exaggeration 9 out of 10 times that one of the cops pulls over a car or stops someone walking in a parking lot the people have one or more of: a stolen gun, a stolen car, stolen items, hard drugs, or outstanding warrants. At least 1 out of 3 times some sort of high speed chase and/or violent resisting of arrest happens, usually endangering other people on the road or by-standers. During the many violent resisting of arrest incidents, the cops invariably call for backup, deploy tasers over and over, and only after a lot of struggle and taking multiple fists to the face (including to lady cops) manage to get the cuffs on.

It is amazing how exceptional it is to have a cop pull someone over or stop someone in a parking lot, and they aren't up to anything but having a broken tail light or whatever, and they get a ticket and go on their way.

It shows that the reality of crime and policing in America is the opposite of what is claimed by Black Lives Matter, etc. So-called "mass incarceration" is the only thing keeping the lid on what otherwise would be South Africa or Honduras-level victimization and fear on our streets. Seriously, watch a night of Live PD.

Gabriel M said...

@snorlax

You're right about how many dangerous criminals get let off, but Feryl is right about the extraordinarily high levels of incarceration. The solution is quite simple: prison should be abolished or reserved for special cases. It is not effective from the perspective of deterrence because low iq delinquents can't think that far ahead. It is not effective from the point of view of rehabilitation because it functions as a place where criminals pick up each other's habits. It is not effective as restitution because the victim, alongside the rest of society, is further victimised paying for the predator's bed and board. The only possible justification for it is as retribution but the supposed justification for prison is that it is less more civiluzed to send people to be bumraped and beaten up by gangs than flogging them.

The right's obsession with prison is the best example of retro-liberalism in action. What is needed is flogging, stocks, and a lot more capital punishment. While lynching is distasteful it is probably indispensable when the average wait on death row is two decades. Another point is that before the 60s (in England to some extent even into the 80s) police had a remarkable degree of freedom to administer on the spot punishments, like kicking the s**t out of you in an alley. The rule of law doesn't work. It wasn't a good idea in the first place.

As a Jew, I should also make a plug for personal slavery of up to 6 years for monetary offense and damages, but perhaps I,ll leave it there for now.

snorlax said...

Gabriel -

I agree that corporal/immediate punishment works better, but incarceration (ironically, a cruel if no longer unusual punishment) is better than nothing.

Jay Fink said...

I'm in the 17% that voted Republican. Maybe you guys can help me on this. I am genetically Jewish but I don't practice the religion at all. If a survey asks me what religion I am do I answer Jewish or none?

HBS said...

Looks like the House will end up 230 Dem, 205 Rep; the Senate 53 Rep, 46 Dem, 1 Romney. Governors, Republicans have a net loss of 6 mansion, but maintain a 27-23 edge.

There's no doubt that the de-platforming of Trump supporters, the Alt-Right, and others has helped Democrats, the left, as well as Boomercon cucks. They first two thought that social media was theirs and could not be used against them until Alt-Right was able to effectively interrupt the airwaves in 2015. The later on the other hand, still continue to misread and misinterpret why Trump won.

Things we learned that are either fake or over-hyped:

#Walkaway
#Blexit or Black Exit

Overall winners for Democrats:

The "Centrists" and The Ascendant (The Obama-Clinton Core)
The NPC message of "Orange Man Bad."

Losers:

Bernie Bros


For Republicans, Trumplicans or those closer to Trump did better overall, but still suffered some key loses. The GOPe lost house seats all over. Unfortunately, that might play into their narrative about Trump voters being "unreliable" and driving away suburban "moderates." Backing up 216's point, one of, if not the main reason Republicans did poorly in the Northeast/New England/Acela was due to muh SALT deduction. Despite that, they nearly pulled of the upset in Connecticut.

It was also a bad idea to waste money and time on Based Blacks like John James (whom Boomercons love), when Jim Renacci right next door in Ohio could have pulled off the win. Now only is Michigan harder to win than Ohio, Stabenow rarely broke below 50 percent in the polls where as in Ohio, the polls were way off.


216, AE

I can't help but think that 7-8 years of Sam Brownback hurt Kris Kobach. Brownback won by a very close margin in 2014, suggesting that the state would be posed to flip the next time around. You see that also with Wisconsin and Michigan where Walker and Snyder won by closer margins in 2014, but then went D this time. On the other hand, Iowa, Ohio, & Minnesota were won by larger margins in 2014, increasing the chances of a third term for the incumbent party.

On Florida,

DeSantis did not run the best campaign. Trump also helped to drag him over the finish line, and in turn, DeSantis dragged Scott over.

He did better north of Tampa/St. Pete compared to 2014 because he was not running against (likely closeted) Charlie Crist. Crist is from that area and ran close in Pasco and Hernando Counties (FL589), while winning his home county of Pinellas comfortably. Gillum was also the first Dem nominee not from the Tampa/St. Pete area since 1998.

Unlike the Panhandle, the other counties of the North Florida coast were not as affected by the hurricane and have been trending Republican for some time. I wouldn't be surprised if voters there were more aware of Gillum's term as Mayor of Tallahassee.

In South Florida, I think the elderly and Cubans really came out for DeSantis. That he won 44% of Hispanics (broke even with men) according to the exit polls lends evidence towards that view. Its also possible that some of the Philip Levine voters either didn't turnout or voted for DeSantis.

Florida also has this tendency to defy wave elections. Jeb! lost in 1994 and Crist, as a Republican, won easily in 2006. For a swing state its kind of amazing the state will go a quarter century without having elected a Democrat as governor.

Philippe le Bel said...

-The worst news is the dem victory on this floridian referendum about vote right for ex-prisonners.

I can"t see how republicans can win FL now. There is no path to victory in 2020 without FL


-I was stunned to read than Voxday, one of my favorite blogger, called for a republican house at 8:36 the election night, because he is smart and american. Me, viewing this from Paris, I looked at the county-by-county results on the NYT (excellents) maps and I quickly saw than in EVERY county, dems overperformed by 6 to 10 pts.
To be honest, I make an error too, I was conviced than Telster would lose MT and Kobach win KS. I wasn't aware about the size of this Johnson county (btw, your counties names are boring, dear american fellows^^ : always the same names everywhere (Lake, Allen, Greene, Logan, Jefferson, Johnson, Fayette...) (well, you should keep Fayette counties lol)

-I never want to hear talking Bill Mitchell, Larry Schweikart, HA Goodman and others, they give me false hope. OK, I kept doubts (I don't remember if I talked here about my worries on polls, wich I think are oftenly globally accurate for the whole story), I kept doubts so, but I became to believe I would live another delicious liberal tears night. I wanted my liberal tears nights !

...And then, became Florida proposal. No more liberal tears night, untill...I don't know. A miracle ?

@VOK3 : oui, Français ;)


Feryl said...

"Without exaggeration 9 out of 10 times that one of the cops pulls over a car or stops someone walking in a parking lot the people have one or more of: a stolen gun, a stolen car, stolen items, hard drugs, or outstanding warrants. At least 1 out of 3 times some sort of high speed chase and/or violent resisting of arrest happens, usually endangering other people on the road or by-standers. During the many violent resisting of arrest incidents, the cops invariably call for backup, deploy tasers over and over, and only after a lot of struggle and taking multiple fists to the face (including to lady cops) manage to get the cuffs on. "

Gee, with Millennials having historically low rates of sex and violent behavior (after such things soared amongst youth born in the 1940's-1970's), hard drug use falling into irrelevance (aside from the late Boomer and early Gen X-er dominated opioid epidemic), and many Millennials actually avoiding driving as much out of preference as out of economic difficulty, I'm sure that the streets out there must be really dangerous.

The wildly dangerous environment of which you are certain exists right now, sounds a lot more like what the late 1970's or early 1990's were really like.

Among all races, on the GSS, the FEAR variable shows that anxiety about crime was most consistently high in the 1970's. It declines slightly in the mid-late 80's, reaches very high levels in the earlier 1990's, and subsequently falls to a pretty low level in the 2000's and 2010's.

The Youth Risk Survey suggests that people these days are probably greatly exaggerating the threat of street crime, as each class of High Schoolers since the late 1990's has been less violent, less into drinking and drugs, and less sexual than the previous cohort.

I dunno when you grew up, but I personally remember the 1990's as being a decade of frequent gang violence in every urban area (not just ghetto hell holes in Chicago, Detroit, and Baltimore), of vandalism and littering being not uncommon in even the suburbs, let alone urban areas, and domestic disputes frequently escalating to fist fights, knifings, and shootings (The TV show COPS was luckily on hand to witness the (Boomer driven) peak in domestic violence that occurred around 1991). Criminologists in the mid-1990's believed that each successive cohort was going to more dangerous than the last, due to the behavior of Gen X-ers in the early 1990's being even more self-destructive than what young Boomers did in the 1970's, and the Boomers in turn were worse behaved than Silents.

Audacious Epigone said...

Matt Forney/Philippe,

Matt, well done.

I took a stab at it in the subsequent post, but we're still scratching our heads here, too. The polls Philippe says are accurate showed Kobach winning by 1, not losing by 4. If only they were accurate!

The midwest is full of cucked Germans and Scandinavians. The only whites who showed up as whites with at least an implicit sense of identity were, surprise surprise, Scots-Irish southerners. They slapped Abrams and Gillum down. We don't have that in Kansas.

As for there being no path to victory without Florida, sure there is--Trump wins in 2016 without Florida! But it's obviously a lot dicier, and makes PA, MI, and WI *all* must-wins in 2020. That's one hell of an uphill battle. Incidentally, it's too bad the exit poll from Florida didn't include anything on that initiative. Would love to have suspected confirmation on the demographic breakdown there!

Vox Day targeted me and Derb for criticism in the Spring of this year for predicting then that Republicans would lose the House. I should ask him to revisit that post, but I like Vox and don't want to be called a gamma so I'll just smile at my desk instead.

216,

Ha, that's classic Trump stirring the oppositional pot. There are several Ds who've pledged not to support Pelosi as speaker. When supporting her is cast as agreeing with Trump, more Ds will defect and chaos will be sewn. This tact is both funny and accelerationist, I think.

Passer by,

I owed you a beer if the gender gap (23 points counting moves in both directions) was wider than the marriage gap (25 points) but it didn't quite get there.

Is this the gender gap pushed to its max by Kavanaugh/peak #metoo or is it going to continue to widen?

Agree your source did better on the gender gap but R-I was gold for predicting congressional outcomes.

As for young people voting D, it'll be interesting to see when Gen Z fills up the 18-24 yo category. Assuming non-white Zs are as or more D-leaning than older generations of non-whites are, it means 18 yo whites voted like 28 yo whites. Stalled now to begin moving back towards Republicans in the future? Maybe.

Cliched as it sounds, college could be the killer. If we trust the Iowa high school straw poll, for example, high schoolers leaned more R than their parents (and admittedly their childless neighbors) did.

Jay,

Choose "Jewish". Your subsequent responses will make everyone on this thread happy!

HBS,

Yes, the Blexit thing predictably amounted to nothing. Jared Taylor and Paul Kersey had a good go at its absurdity in this week's AmRen podcast. The only thing I thought it might do is modestly depress black turnout. I guess if I want to mine the exit polls for evidence of that, I could point to the estimate that only 11% of the electorate in 2018 was black compared to 12% in 2016. That case is a pretty thin one, though.

snorlax said...

AE -

I just made an effortpost that showed up then disappeared. Can you recover it?

snorlax said...

AE -

Oh well, I'll redo it. Based on the CNN exit polls, Republicans actually did do unusually well[1] with blacks in a number of races, if not nationally.

CA Governor: 84-15
FL Governor: 86-14, women(!) 82-18 [2]
IN Senator: 86-13, men: 80-18
MN Governor: 84-14
MN Senator special election: 85-12
NV Governor: 76-20(!!!), men: 73-23, women(!): 78-18
NV Senator: 78-19, men: 76-20, women: 79-18
OH Governor: 84-15
TN Senator: 85-12
TX Governor: 82-15, men: 75-24
WI Governor: 85-15
WI Senator: 84-14, women: 80-17 [3]

Other noteworthy results:

GA Governor (men): 88-11 [4]
TX Senator (men): 83-17
WV Senator (nonwhites; 3% black, 2% Latino, 1% other): 53-40

Looks like the Kanye/Blexit phenomenon hit states[5] where blacks are likely to have nonblack neighbors and bypassed those[6] where they're more ghettoized. Raj Chetty was right all along!

[1] Which I'll define as a margin within a point of the recent Presidential high-water mark of 84-12 in '96, or better.
[2] And yes, I checked and Gillum is married to a black woman. Very weird.
[3] Sistas don't like the dyke kike.
[4] WNB!
[5] Among the ones with exit poll #s: CA, FL, IN, MN, NV, OH, TN, TX, WV and WI.
[6] Among the ones with exit poll #s: GA, MI, MS, MO, NJ, NY, PA and VA.

Audacious Epigone said...

snorlax,

Are the results in those other states enough to balance out those higher numbers to get us to the national figure of 10-to-1 in favor of Ds (90%-9%)?

Just looking quickly at Texas, there is a pretty big jump in black support from 2014 to 2018, doubling from 7% to 15% for Abbot, for example. Otoh, the national exit poll in 2014 shows Rs doing modestly *better* among blacks overall than in 2018. Curious.

snorlax said...

AE -

Dunno. It's getting pretty late here so I'll try to look into that in the morning. There are also a bunch of states that aren't broken out individually or where the black subsample is too small to show, but which are included in the national poll.

Philippe le Bel said...

@Audacieux épigone : I never wanted to say polls are accurate in details. You can't use the argument of Kobach+1 or others. I just wanted they are accurate GLOBALLY talking.

Here in France, we had the self auto-optimistic view, during presidential elections of 2002 and 2017, with the famous "secret polls" from "secret services" : "Marine is doing BIG BETTER than fake polls says!", "Jean-Marie Le Pen is doing BIG BETTER than fake polls says!".

Well, no. Polls were accurate.


On the other sides, MSM were absolutely convinced the "yes" would win on the 2005 referendum upon UE. Auto-Optimistic bias too. (I think you have an american way to say that, unfortunately, I don't know it)

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sondages_fran%C3%A7ais_sur_le_r%C3%A9f%C3%A9rendum_du_29_mai_2005

HBS said...

AE, Philippe le Bel

You can thank the Florida GOP for the Felon Voting Rights Amendment. In the Republican Voter Guide at the state and county level, their position was NP (No Position, No Preference). Had they opposed the referendum, it would likely would have failed as amendments in Florida need a supermajority or 60% in order to pass.

Something else that worked against Kobach in Kansas was that neither party has held the Governorship for more than eight years since the 1940's-50's.

Snorlax,

I find those exit polls to be unbelievable. If you look at Florida, the Senate results for black men and women are completely different. As Richard Baris of PPD has noted, the exit poll results are often manipulated, refitted, and reshaped as the voting results come in.