Wednesday, August 08, 2018

Stretching Jeff

Colyer's press release:


No complaints from me about using small, round numbers to illustrate abstract proportionalities in ways that are easy to grasp.


But that approach is also easy to reverse engineer.


So, to be precise, Colyer's phrase "hundreds of votes" translates to... 102 votes. C'mon, Jeff, that's a little misleading, isn't it?

Regarding the outcome, I remain cautiously optimistic. Kobach has a razor-thin edge of 191 votes with absentee military, provisional, and snail mail post-marked no later than August 7th yet to be counted.

Kobach won two of the three counties--Leavenworth and Bourbon--that include military bases. Colyer won one, Riley. The largest of the three is Leavenworth. Kobach clean up there, 51.2%-34.2%. Riley county, the second-largest of the three, is also home to Kansas State University. The latter accounts for a larger share of the county's population, so Colyer's 45.5%-31.9% advantage is at least in part attributable to KSU.

Advantage: Kobach.

Provisional ballots traditionally present the most trouble for irregular voters. In this context, those are Trumpian Kobach voters. The Colyer people are Republican lifers who dutifully and reliably vote for the Establishment candidate whenever the polls are open and people who have no intention of voting for the GOP in the general (see below). Their ballots will pass muster.

Keep in mind that the current totals do not include any provisional ballots--those that are subsequently deemed legitimate will be added onto the current totals in the future.

Advantage: Kobach.

Colyer won early voting by healthy margins just about everywhere.

Most saliently, he opened with a huge early lead in Johnson County on account of this, enjoying a 4,000-vote margin when the first batch came in. Among day-of voters, though, Kobach held his own in a county that was conventionally assumed to be the one that would give Colyer his win. But the earlies favoring Colyer and the day-ofs favoring Kobach was the general trend everywhere.

If it's just day-of voters, Kobach is declared the winner last night. Who are the people who mailed their ballots in at the last minute? Largely those weren't planning on voting but decided to in response to Trump's endorsement of Kobach on Monday.

Advantage: Kobach.

Tangentially, "RINO" is an acronym usually reserved for people like John McCain. That's not very accurate, though, since McCain usually does vote with his fellow Republicans along party lines.

As was explained to me last night, the actual RINOs are members of the electorate in a place like, say, Kansas, which is Republican-dominated at the state level. They register as Republican so that they are essentially allowed to vote twice. First, they vote for the most leftist Republican who has a chance of winning in the GOP primary. Then in the general they reliably vote for the Democrat. Either way they get a leftist who has promised them the gibs.

These people are heavily overrepresented among early voters because many of them don't actually follow politics, they just do what their unions, pension organizations, etc tell them to do. To maximize the electoral impact, said organizations send out instructions ahead of time and instruct their members to vote early.

The last few days have been a blur. I'm running a big sleep deficit, so excuse the dereliction in responding to comments at the moment. It will be rectified in a day or two.

34 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the update, AE. I've been checking here to get the "real" scoop on what's happening with Kobach's candidacy. Sounds promising.

Get some sleep! Your words are needed going forward.

Surly said...

AE, are you a Kansan?

CrunchyButRealistCon said...

Audacious, Thanks for the insider details. This is/will be a huge boost to our side. Not since Tom Tancredo has someone emerged with the grounding needed on immigration patriotism. Onwards to November!

Lance E said...

Too bad Kevin Yoder didn't have a stronger primary challenger, but it'll be nice to see ¡Colyer! thrown out.

Joe Suber said...

Using Colyer math:

If each provisional ballot is only equally likely to fall to either candidate, the "2 vote" lead on 102 provisionals gives Kobach a 66% chance at winning.

If the tilt towards Kobach on election day holds up among the provisional ballots cast on election day, so that they are each 52.5% or so likely to be for Kobach, then there is a 79% chance of victory.

If the tilt is more like a 55%, then its an 89% chance of victory.

But this calculation is completely deceptive. By reducing the sizes of everything as Colyer would have us do, randomness plays a much bigger role than it should. The law of larger numbers kicks in when we have to flip the coin for an estimated 8000 times (valid, new ballots that are going to be for our top 2 candidates). In that scenario with a 50/50 propensity, 191 votes are almost insurmountable.

Our provisional ballot casters must be only 47.5% likely to vote Kobach in order for the odds of a Colyer victory to just get to even.

Sperg out!

SeanF said...

Thanks AE; add me to the list of those relying on you as our go-to source for Kobach updates.

PS: Twisting - heh - your title around, sure Collyer's cucky right down to the physiognomy, but he's far, far from the top of the list of those who need stretching. That's an entirely different neck-and-neck matter, often reserved for more masculine, more dangerous, types with some courage of their convictions. The wrong convictions.

El Gringo said...

I sometimes register Republican for 30 days just so I can vote in a GOP primary. Of course, as a decent and moral patriot I vote Democratic in the general election.

But I usually do it only when the incumbent Republican is a crook (two times they literally served jail time after I voted against them) in a district that is so Red the primary is the only way to beat them. Of course, I vote the whole ballot and not just the office I'm targeting so I have to choose the least offensive Republicans top to bottom. That means one more vote for Ron Paul all the way down to the least obviously corrupt Republican candidate for county recorder.

snorlax said...

https://twitter.com/Melissa_Brunner/status/1027623137398145025

BREAKING: @GovJeffColyer will have 100 votes added from Thomas Co; State elections director confirms standard double checking found error in entry; Colyer received 522 - they entered 422 #wibw #ksleg

Anonymous said...

Open-borders neocons raised millions for Jeff Colyer at the national level to try to defeat Kobach.

Colyer is a complete RINO cuckservative stooge.

Samantha said...

Hearing rumors on Twitter that illegal Mexicans came out in droves to vote for Colyer

216 said...

What are the odds that Colyer endorses the Dem or Greg Orman if he loses the primary?

Will Kobach win the general, or will the voters cuck like they did for Kathleen Sebelius two times?

Is it true that millions of illegal Russian little green men voted for Kobach, and promised waifus to his alt-right base?

Audacious Epigone said...

Anon,

Thanks. Confident Kobach will not cuck by recusing himself and handing the election administration over to the Topeka swamp that Colyer sits square in the center of.

Surly,

Not by birth, but I'm a resident now and have no plans of leaving the state. Are you?

Crunchy,

Yes, this coup will be huge if Kobach can pull it off. I remain optimistic. The guy simply doesn't cuck.

People may not be aware, but back in ~2015, while SoS, he said there was a chance Obama's DOJ would simply stop prosecuting blacks for anything as a matter of policy. All the predictable pearl clutching and histrionics that followed didn't lead to him backing down an inch. The man is a rock.

Joe,

Ha, thanks for that!

SeanF,

Ha, I was merely referring to the truth, not the grotesque soy-laced physique.

El Gringo,

The RINO tactic is one I can appreciate. If I lived in some urban hellhole, I'd be a DINO.

snorlax,

After the day's dust settled, Kobach is up just over 100 votes. The mail-ins will be released tomorrow. I suspect they'll favor Kobach. If they don't, we're in trouble.

Anon,

Indeed. His donors would prefer Laura Kelly (the Dem in the general) over Kobach. So will the Koch brothers, who have a big presence in Wichita. But Kobach did great in Wichita and his running mate is from there.

Samantha,

Kobach is talking about the possibility of non-citizens voting. Not sure I see why he'd do that unless he had hard evidence.

216,

Slight. He will still give a tepid, impotent--because that's what he is, a tepid, impotent creature--endorsement of Kobach. While the Topeka swamp hates Kobach, a lot of the state level representatives like him. This isn't Trump-in-DC animosity we're talking about, here. To put it in terms of the 2016 general, think of Kobach as Cruz. If he'd won, faggots like Kasich wouldn't have been happy about it, but they still would've endorsed him without waffling about it.

Audacious Epigone said...

I, otoh, will definitely vote for Orman if Colyer steals the nomination. In a lot of ways he's the worse than the other two--he's a socially libertine chamber of commerce type--but I'll still do as an FU.

216 said...

AE,

Do you think Cruz ever had a plausible path to victory? I can't see him winning the Upper Midwestern states, and I don't see the "Latino" novelty carrying him over the top in the Southwestern states the GOP hasn't won since 2004, nor do I see him carrying Virginia. I think he would have won Florida by a larger margin. We'd probably have VP nominee Kelly Ayotte.

Kobach is running on more of the same "slash and burn", rather than as a fiscal centrist. I can't see that working out well in a pro-union environment. Expropriate Koch Industries without compensation!

Do we have a chance in Oregon this fall?

What direction would be best for the establishment in 2020? Pence as the nominee or full cuck with Governor Baker of Massachusetts (Cory Gardner/Tim Scott as VP). No strong female contenders (good) on the GOP side, but would be eagerly exploited if General Secretary Kamala is on the ballot. I doubt the ability for Nimrata Haley to pull off a Macron in the GOP primary unless Trump stupidly endorses her.

216 said...

O/T

Read this slice of neoliberal arrogance and yellow supremacy. Spread this around the water coolers of the heartland and watch the GOP keep Congress. For all the mentions of mercantilism, no one has ever made the case that it has inhibited Chinese growth.

https://www.quora.com/China-has-just-announced-more-tariffs-against-US-Why-does-Trump-think-he-can-win-this-trade-war

snorlax said...

216 -

Baker wouldn't be the choice of "full cucks" because immigration is one of the few issues he's relatively solid on. He's vetoed "sanctuary state" legislation and driver's licenses for illegals, and killed (with a veto threat) in-state tuition for illegals.

snorlax said...

The liberals I know (which, in MA, means just about everyone I know) have all quite jarringly reversed themselves 180 degrees on trade (because Trump Bad) and now sound like the Wall Street Journal editorial page, or perhaps the Chinese Foreign Ministry on the topic.

snorlax said...

Cruz was making if you recall some Trump-lite noises on trade and foreign policy, from which you could see the beginnings of a somewhat plausible path to victory emerge.

He'd have to pivot fairly hard to the center though (especially dropping his opposition to rape/incest exceptions to an abortion ban), which would open him up to charges of flip-flopping and opportunism. There's also the matter of his grating personality, although Trump was able to win despite being widely-disliked.

If he won the nom "dirty" by stealing Trump's delegates, then he'd almost certainly have had no shot.

No chance in Oregon, not this year. We just had a favorable poll or two but I don't believe them. Very cucky state. It's also all vote-by-mail (i.e. Dem fraud bonanza).

Audacious Epigone said...

Recusal. Disappointing. A play for the general, maybe, but that’s post hoc rationalizing on my part.

Anonymous said...

Everyone:

If you have a chance today, call Colyer's office (785-296-3232) and demand that he concede the election. Say he's acting disgraceful and needs to concede. Kobach won.

Joe Suber said...

realtime updates

herfsi said...

to vote for Kobach one had to press the screen to go the 2nd page – Colyer was on the 1st screen page of candidates – could've messed up a few voters. the ballot maxed out at 4 candidates per screen page. while voting this potential difficulty (for fellow boomers to vote Kobach) seemed alarming.

snorlax said...

herfsi -

Oof. Although possibly an own goal by Kobach, since I assume the SoS chooses the voting machines.

Feryl said...

Hey, Ho, computer screen voting has to go!

Really, how many times do we have to deal with this crap? Stick to paper ballots, and either have them counted by a scanner (whose accuracy can be verified later by paper ballot reconciliation) or counted by hand (which they still do in Britain, BTW).

When voting machines were first widely used in the 2000's, there were problems from the get-go with software reliability and so forth. The machines are only as good as the programmers and tech support want them to be be. As for the private sector is kewl crowd, keep in mind the Diebold, the first big voting machine company, did a horrible job with their machines. And even if the machines are designed and maintained correctly, they still are vulnerable to hacking (vulnerabilities which have been widely exposed and proven).

Here in MN I've always filled in paper ballots.

Fortunately if Kobach can't reach a quick resolution to voting controversies, he ought to be in a position to demand greater integrity in the process. And outlawing voting machines is part of this.

Didja know that in the 90's and 2000's, Diebold was a big donor (!) to the GOP. Consequently, red states are much more likely to use voting machines.

Feryl said...

"No chance in Oregon, not this year. We just had a favorable poll or two but I don't believe them. Very cucky state. It's also all vote-by-mail (i.e. Dem fraud bonanza)."

I don't think voter fraud is a big deal. No, really, I don't. The reality is that America's legacy inhabitants and upper class people are much more likely to vote. I read recently that whites in California cast well over 50% of votes. Even more so in local elections, given that the pres. election is the most popular with proles.

Middle and upper class Americas essentially get what they want. And really, what they deserve. America's higher classes in 1994 completely abandoned the America of the New Deal. That was the key period in which higher class Americans of low-moderate education abandoned either the traditional Democrat platform, or abandoned the party altogether. This sort of anti-government voodoo promulgated by narcissistic Boomers resulted in a major shift towards GOP ideology (in effect, many alleged Democrats of the 1990's actually sounded more conservative than Rockefeller Republicans did in the 1970's).

We shouldn't let the non-stop promotion of buggery and drug since the 1990's (which, in any case, has no analogue in FDR's America) delude us into thinking that the last 30 years have been "liberal". No way, Jose. If a bi-partisan arrangement to gut welfare, de-regulate industry and the financial markets, go lax on anti-trust, and let income inequality reach Dickensian levels is "liberal", then what would "conservatism" be? The literal non-existence of the government outside of a minor police presence?

Whining about vote fraud is I think a sign of a low-trust/bad faith era. If you aren't that popular, you just won't win most elections.

Feryl said...

Note also the graying of the voting booth. Gen X-ers and Millennials are less likely to vote at a young age, because well, they are still fairly young. But detachment from voting is a problem that seems to be getting progressively worse with each generation, and as they age they don't necessarily correct it (whereas older GIs and Silents in middle age or older voted heavily). It could also be that the rising tide of cynicism first seen in the 70's has just alienated Boomers and especially post-Boomers from voting.

I'd have to say that older generations are at fault for voting for idiots like Colyer long past their sell-by date, while younger generations are at fault for not showing up at all.

216 said...

Feryl,

"White College" voters are surging towards the left. Is this a temporary phenomenon, or is it a worldwide trend (E. Macron/Brexit)? How many of the upper-income bracket are without college in these times? Will "white college" voters be comfortable voting higher taxes on themselves to prop up the Ocasio-Cortez types?

Do you think a prospective 2020 defeat for the GOP will lead to a loss of confidence in democracy among the right-wing intellectuals? Or will it lead to the intellectuals supporting the FW De Klerk option known as "full cuck"?

Joe Suber said...

Update to spergout with 110 vote lead for Kobach.

If there are 8000 valid provisional ballots and they are from voters who have a 100% chance to vote for Kobach or Colyer -

at 50-Colyer 50-Kobach - Kobach wins 990/1000
at 51-Colyer 49-Kobach - Kobach wins 750/1000
at 52-Colyer 48-Kobach - Konach wins 138/1000

if there are 4000 valid provisionals:

at 50-Colyer 50-Kobach - Kobach wins 999/1000
at 51-Colyer 49-Kobach - Kobach wins 980/1000
at 52-Colyer 48-Kobach - Konach wins 835/1000
at 53-Colyer 47-Kobach - Kobach wins 380/1000
at 55-Colyer 45-Kobach - Kobach wins 2/1000


So fewer remaining ballots, within reason, is a help to Kobach.
Colyer needs to do much better than he did during the completed day-of voting to have any kind of chance. The provisional balloteers will have to be a different kind of people than those who were properly registered to vote.

Audacious Epigone said...

Anon,

Good idea. Will do.

herfsi,

The governor ballot was randomized. I checked with my wife just to make sure and her Kobach ticket was in a different location than mine was.

Feryl,

These machines print paper copies of each electronically-submitted ballot. Iow, there is both a digital ballot and a physical paper ballot. From someone on the outside looking in, it's not your fault you're unaware--it's an indication of how lazy and sloppy our media are.

I'm not sure it's well over half. In 2016, the exit polls for CA showed it 48% white, 52% non-white. In non-presidential elections, it is probably modestly over 50% white but would it be well over half?

Joe,

I'm coming up with Kobach being able to lose 49.5%-50.5% on 8,000 ballots and 49%-51% on 4,000 of them (assuming two-way). Given that Kobach voters are the ones who will tend to have less familiarity with voting, though, and given that Kobach did better on day-ofs overall, I don't see any reason to think that the provisionals will do anything but help Kobach.

snorlax said...

The governor ballot was randomized.

That's a horse of a different color then, and a fiendishly-clever disparate-impact hack. Dindus will presumably struggle to locate the Democrat more so than huwhites the Republican. Although maybe not given the age demographics of GOP voters…

Given that Kobach voters are the ones who will tend to have less familiarity with voting, though

I don't think that's a valid assumption; a Kobach fan is presumably an immigration-focused political junkie like ourselves, while Colyer should have more name rec with low-info voters as the sitting gov.

b3k said...

I think most of Ft Riley would vote under Geary County. The county line runs through the post, but housing--at least a lot of it--is on the Geary County side.

Feryl said...

"I'm not sure it's well over half. In 2016, the exit polls for CA showed it 48% white, 52% non-white. In non-presidential elections, it is probably modestly over 50% white but would it be well over half?"

I saw a (credible) citing of a particular analysis of CA voters, but damned if I can remember where. I might've erred in saying well over, but I do remember the number being north of 50%. It's possible that the study was using pre-2016 figures (which obviously sparked huge POC turnout in CA), or was using local and state elections w/ or w/o pres. elections.

Regardless, all of this is to beat the drum once again that you can't blame CA on the Mexicans. Can you imagine what voter demos were in say, the 1990's? We're probably talking over 70% white. And as is almost always the case, states with a notable agriculture belt have since the 1970's produced one spineless class of Republicans after another, with the isolated exceptions (e.g. Kobach) invariably ganged up on by the CoC. The demographic changes enabled by the GOP (please stop with the garbage that Teddy Kennedy started it) in the 70's and 80's have culminated in the Dems being poised to become champions of now relevant demographic groups.

Boomercons and Alt-Right alike who try and retcon modern crisis level issues as being the result of a 50 year long Democrat and/or Bi-partisan conspiracy to steal power from conservative whites are delusional. Political and economic conservatism have become incredibly durable over the last 30 years. We can't let buggery and racial spoils systems blind us to the reality that Boomers in particular have had tremendous success at getting the government to do as little as possible to safeguard the working class and middle class. And wide-open borders is obviously a tell-tale sign of these Dickensian norms. As soon as GIs faded heavily in the 1990's, every last measure to stop predation on the vulnerable was ripped out.

And yes, Virginia, the Republicans in the 1990's and 2000's frequently criticized American workers for being too soft, too lazy, too quick to support unions, and over-paid.

I'm willing to forget the past if current leadership agrees to no longer live in the past.....

Feryl said...

"White College" voters are surging towards the left. Is this a temporary phenomenon, or is it a worldwide trend (E. Macron/Brexit)? How many of the upper-income bracket are without college in these times? Will "white college" voters be comfortable voting higher taxes on themselves to prop up the Ocasio-Cortez types?"

No, it's not worldwide, which is why Duterte and Putin are (relatively) popular and held in esteem in their respective countries.

It's in Britain, America, Canada, Australia, Germany, and France that all of these issues are proving to be the most poisonous. These are countries which experienced tremendous post-war growth, which was taken for granted by Boomers who squandered their blessing on hedonism and mild forms of cultural communism first (1964-whenever each cohort hit middle age), and economic/cultural division and exploitation second (yuppies, culture war between Xtians and secularists, and libertarian conservatives and hardcore cultural communists from 1984+).

This mentality is seen a milder form with Gen X-ers, who obviously never felt as blessed as Boomers and therefore are less likely to bleat about horrible white people taking advantage of poor brown and black people. Also, X-ers are less likely to whine about their "demons" (sex, drugs, whatever) than Boomers are.

The lesson to be learned here is that you can't just bestow vast good fortune on a generation that did nothing to earn it. That's why Boomers in the Western Protestant-sphere are proving to be so terribly destructive. In comparison, the GIs had to weather the Great Depression, WW2, the high levels of political corruption and ethnic squabbles seen in the Progressive era, etc. before the GIs helped lead us into successfully tackling a major crisis period (the 1940's) and then making the subsequent Boom period (the 1950's and 60's) as pleasant as it could be (with the Boomers becoming a major irritant after 1964).

Given that the Boomers always came up short, why would we expect them to do any better in the face of America's greatest (ideological and civic) crisis since the Civil War? The crises of the 1930's and 40's were partly the result of domestic elite corruption as well as foreign elite arrogance (the Nazis). The current crisis almost entirely due to failure of the Me Generation to uphold basic norms of accountability and civility. But FDR's generation in the 30's and 40's admitted it had a serious problem, it eventually helped bring about a solution. In today's post-modern Boomer world, nobody even agrees on what the truth is, or what reality is, anymore.

Audacious Epigone said...

snorlax,

The number of people who are voting for the first time in a primary are not going to be people who are voting for Colyer. Yes, the immigration restrictionists who've followed Kobach for decades (like me) are not going to be casting provisionals, but some people who maybe voted for the first time ever in 2016 for Trump and then stumbled through the primary last week could be. Also, Kobach's machine gun replica gimmick could bring out a similar type of "come-and-take-'em" apolitical person to vote Kobach. Otoh, it could bring the pearl clutchers out to vote against him, too. We'll see next week.

b3k,

Great to know! That means the military counties went comfortably Kobach, all three of them.