Saturday, August 11, 2018

Kobach won the brown(er) counties

Of the twenty counties in Kansas where Hispanics comprise at least 15% of the population, Kobach won sixteen of them. Colyer won four. The state has three counties that are majority-Hispanic. Kobach handily won all three of them.

On average, the counties that went to Kobach are 13.1% Hispanic. The counties Colyer won are 7.3% Hispanic.

The correlation by county between Kobach's share and the share of the population that is Hispanic is a positive .28. Fairly modest, but not insignificant.

As the results came in on election night, they undercut a lot of the conventional wisdom about how the results would shake out. Most saliently, there was no clear rural/suburban/urban divide.

This correlation between a large Hispanic presence and Kobach's share is one I'd hoped would manifest, so it's encouraging to see it empirically validated. And the correlation between the voting share of white Republicans and the Hispanic presence is almost certainly higher than .28, since the counties with lots of Hispanics will include larger shares of Hispanics voting against Kobach than counties with few Hispanics.

If the Ned Flanderesses of the cuck corridor are able to push back, however feebly, instead of lying on their backs and taking it, there's still hope the West will yet find the will to survive.

Parenthetically, all data presented above are calculated in a two-way race between Kobach and Colyer. Adding the vote totals of the other throwaway candidates into the mix was a tedious proposition for very likely no meaningful change in the results.

18 comments:

snorlax said...

Rather depressing post. There are majority-Hispanic counties in Kansas?!

Duke Norfolk said...

See! We knew they were natural conservatives!

Kidding aside, this is likely to make the cucks pander harder to the Brown crowd. Even though they should get the counter conclusion from this.

Anonymous said...

The whole idea of a uniform "hispanic" vote is a mythical. Lots of the Puerto Ricans and Cubans here legally resent the hell out of the illegal Mexicans.

The Z Blog said...

Awareness of demographics has a strong impact on white opinions. This study is a good example of how normie whites become more politically conservative when made aware of their actual numbers.

https://academic.oup.com/sf/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/sf/soy046/5002999?redirectedFrom=fulltext

I've seen this in Lagos. Whites here are race aware, regardless of political ideology. A white moves here and in a few months they start to sound like Paul Nehlen.

Maryland has had a strong union labor history. Baltimore was a white blue-collar city into the 60's with heavy industry like steel, manufacturing and shipping. The rural areas were the populist farmer types. As a result, the state is pretty much one party.

That said, the last governor election, the Democrats ran a black and the state went GOP as whites voted heavy against the black. This election, the Democrats picked another black and the Republican is a heavy favorite.

This underscores a point that Democrats can only win if they run a white and downplay demographic reality. The trouble is, demographic reality is hard to hide and it is making it hard for them to run white men.

Anonymous said...

What is the rest of the process for vote counting in KS going to be? What timeline? Are all the mailed ballots done? Is it now just the provisional? When will we know the final count on those? I am really hoping and praying kobach doesn't have the race stolen. The gop has done it in the past in primary races - ron paul and pat buchanan have both had states stolen from them in presidential races.

216 said...

O/T


https://twitter.com/MaximeBernier/status/1028801395296792576

"Values cucking" doesn't work. Whenever one speaks of "non-integrated minorities" they always circle back to white socons that don't love Big Brother.

Audacious Epigone said...

snorlax,

Yeah, of the meat-packing-plant-miles-outside-of-the-small-town variety.

Duke,

If they're not going to see the obvious, we'll spin it this way--the more we talk about stopping the invasion, the better we'll do with Hispanics! Hey, if it sells it'll be an idea that will unite the factions!

Anon,

In the country and on the east coast specifically, that matters more than it does in Kansas. Our illegal Hispanics are overwhelmingly Mexican/Central American.

Z,

Exactly. It's like we need someone to take them over to the other side of the river and the rest will take care of itself!

Your Net Roots angle was a great one. We can see the battle lines being drawn. For accelerationist reasons and for the sake of clarity, I want Kamala Harris to beat the Sanders/Warren faction.

Anon,

Canvassing committees in every county in the state will be meeting this upcoming week to review provisional ballots, of which there are 8,999. Some number will be thrown out, the rest will be counted, and the results should be in by the end of the week. They won't necessarily be certified by then, though, since either side can request a recount.

I'm having a hell of a time figuring out where absentee military ballots figure into all this, though.

Audacious Epigone said...

Anon,

Kobach put his #2 in charge of the process. The biggest opportunity for Colyer to steal the election is in his insistence that all eligible votes need to be counted. He keeps insinuating that should include unaffiliated voters even though party rules say primary participants had to be Republican-affiliated a month ago. That deadline is long gone now.

216 said...

Anon,

When it comes to PR/DR/Cubans in the Eastern US, urbanization and lower incomes trend towards a higher support for socialist economic policies. They may not like illegal immigration, but they don't see it as the existential threat to constitutional order that we do. A surprising amount express fear of "Neo-Nazi gangs" beating them/their kids up.

Non-white distrust (I'm hesitant to use the word anger) at immigration is rooted in resentment over "queue-jumping". It is rarely expressed in terms of wage stagnation, housing bubbles and environmentalism. Any non-white that expresses dismay at loss of the white supermajority is so rare as hen's teeth. There is an anger at Muslims, but not at the level that white evangelicals are at.

Anonymous said...

@Z

Why would any sane white person move to Lagos in the first place?

And if a white person has Paul Nehlen opinions, why on earth would they choose to stay in Lagos?

Every now and then we see white individuals who self-identify as "white nationalist" or "alt-right" pop up on the internet who say they live in New York, LA, Asia, Latin America, or Africa. I can only assume they are crazy because they are like people with peanut allergies who CHOOSE to live next door to the peanut butter factory.

Joe Suber said...

My door-knocking for Kobach was in Little Mexico. Registered GOP, but in the poorer part of town. I found no Colyer supporters, and many pro-Kobach. The suburban bubble-wrap is real.

Blank Spott said...

I've seen Ulysses turn into Tijuana, Liberal into Juarez (at least the blacks left). I won't even start in on Garden.

When I was a kid in the 70s, there were a few Mexicans, but, of course, nothing like now. Now half the signs on main in Ulysses are "en Espanol" for the ubiquitous "pananderias", where you can also "envio valores". There's black tar heroin in Johnson. There is an entire underground of border-town-tier vice in Southwest KS. Mexican prostitutes working out of trailers in Satanta. This has all happened in less than 20 years.

It's an invasion, period.

It's gonna take more than a Kobach.

The Z Blog said...

Anonymous,

Cecil Rhodes spent a lot of time in Africa. J. B. S. Haldane spent a good chunk of his life in India. Some of us honkies just like adventure.

Z

Audacious Epigone said...

In addition to the existential love of adventure--if Z-Man had pursued an acting career, he'd be a shoo-in to play the role of police detective on just about any set--there is also a strong Paul Revere element to it. The fundamental question of the 21st century is whether or not the West has the will to survive. We need the warning bells to ring out across the land and one of the loudest ones ringing right now is coming from Lagos on the Chesapeake.

Blank Spott,

Yes, there are areas of Johnson County--Olathe and Roeland Park, specifically--that have become Little Mexicos.

Will it take more than Kobach? Yes, of course. But if we can't even muster Kobach, I'm not too bullish on our chances.

Joe,

If Kobach pulls this off, what Z joked about on last week's Power Hour should really be directed at you. Kobach as governor in 2018 could conceivably be Kobach as president in 2024. It may not end up being much of an exaggeration to say that had it not been for you, that wouldn't have happened.

silly girl said...

off topic

Hey AE,

I was wondering if the GSS can shed some light on whether people who are more athletic have more children. I would call athletic someone who was on his/his high school sports team for whatever sport. If GSS researchers are themselves not to sporty this might fly under their radar, but maybe there is some other database that would track sports participation among the characteristics, behaviors, etc., that are tracked.

Anonymous said...

https://ent.sos.ks.gov

The page is showing as being updated at 16:53 on 8/13/18 and has new totals.

Kobach now is listed at 127,666 votes, while Cuck is at 127,460. So kobach is back up to a 206 vote lead. What changed? Were they the mail in ballots just counted?

snorlax said...

Anon -

All the provisionals except from Johnson (Kansas City, KS) and Sedgwick (Wichita) Counties have now been counted. The remaining provisionals will be counted by this afternoon.

Audacious Epigone said...

silly girl,

No. Two of the most surprising topics the GSS has never asked about:

- Participation in athletic activities like sports or about exercise routines/frequencies
- Pet ownership or anything to do with pets

Anon,

Kobach is now up by 320 votes.

snorlax,

Sedgwick is in. KCK is actually in Wyandotte county, just north of Johnson. It has not reported yet, either. It is likely to be good for Kobach, but Johnson county has an order of magnitude more votes than Wyandotte does. Johnson is set to release in about half an hour. Unless Colyer performs destroys the trend everywhere else, that should be it. We still have Shawnee county, too, though. That's where Topeka is and it's not favorable for Kobach either. Likely his lead will narrow from 320 but not be overcome.