Monday, March 19, 2018

The Han Hundred

The inestimable Sid:
What's striking is that China is becoming ever more powerful in Africa, and they may ultimately tie their infrastructure projects in Africa to responsible fertility. I don't know if there are any trends in that direction, but I hope they can pull that off.
How worried are the Chinese about African fertility? The Han don't suffer from the same self-destructive universalistic, egalitarian impulses that Northwestern Europeans (WEIRDOs) do.

China's a big country. They'll keep the dumb Africans outside the walls and everything will be fine. Illegal invasion from Africa into China is nearly impossible. The infiltrators stick out like a sore thumb. If they try a Camp of the Saints move into China, the Chinese navy will sink the rapefugee ships and that will be that. The invaders will seek out whiter pastures.

More likely, China will use its influence in the UN and other global bodies to talk up a good game on universalism and egalitarianism in the general sense. That's why they go to American universities, after all! They'll gesture in the direction of involving themselves in resettlement with no intention of ever actually doing so.
Courtesy

Just as in the case of the Paris Accords, they'll never commit to anything concrete in the present nor will they make good on anything they pledge to do in the future, but will correctly count on naive Westerners to do so. Consequently, the relative Chinese position will become even stronger as the West suffocates under low IQ, feral hordes while China keeps the door shut Japanese-tight.

The more I think about it, the more difficult it becomes--short of the CRISPR revolution or scalable nuclear fusion--to imagine the 21st being anything other than the Chinese century.

The best we can probably realistically hope for in the West is that following the political dissolution of the US, we end up with an implicit (no welfare) or explicit (no non-whites) rump ethnostate in the mountain and/or upper Midwestern former US that, equipped with nuclear weapons, is able to ward off external military threats.

43 comments:

Anonymous said...

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/2014/09/pictures-chocolate-city-2014911115258446208.html

Audacious Epigone said...

Anon,

The CIA factbook lists 17 different ethnic groups that it includes in the residual 7% of China's population of 1.3+ billion, after the Han and Zhuang. All of them are Asian. Africans comprise well under one-tenth of 1% of the country's population. Japan has hundreds of thousands of non-permanent residents, too. They can be uprooted at any time.

Basso e Grasso said...

If Jonathan Swift were alive, perhaps he would propose that the Chinese solve the Negro Problem by putting blacks on the menu. Would anyone care for some Mushu Zulu?

Anonymous said...

A return to Christendom is more realistic than pure white ethnostate fantasies mainly because it once actually existed.

Anonymous said...

I admit the link I posted earlier was not a good rebuttal, but my greater point (which I was too lazy to write earlier) is that the Chinese will not be the next global hegemon. What's more likely to happen is that the Chinese will dominate Asia and implement a sort of Monroe doctrine for the region.

Asian growth and development will slow down to a trickly, a la Japan's lost decade, midcentury, and the region will settle more or less revert back to the historical norm.

Secondly, all this talk about the Chinese Century implies that the unipolar world order will be sustained. It won't. The world is becoming multipolar, which is the historical norm throughout most history.

Also, India's population will eventually overtake China's in the decades to come, while the PRC's demographics will continue to shrink as the cost of living goes up. (Pro-Natalist policies in Asia are generally have mixed to negative results). So even if the United States and Europe collapses, it's very likely that the Chinese will be able to dominate on their own.

Finally, as someone who regularly speaks with Chinese analysts, most Chinese investments in Africa are "push" investments, which is to say it's all capital meant to generate a quick buck but not meant for long term value. This is also true for OROB, which is more of a motto than a fixed or official ideology. It's the equivalent of the Japanese buying up New York in the 80's. The boom period will fade away and what's left will be just Africa.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that the Chinese will not grow stronger. They will, but I seriously doubt that they will be the invincible colossus that will dominate the rest of the century. In my estimation, it's more likely that they will revert back to their historical role of the Asian local superpower, heavily centralized and closed off from the rest of the world.

I can be wrong of course, but geopolitics is a lot more complicated than demographic analysis. Bottom line here is it's premature to say this or that will happen, especially the Chinese Century canard.

t. partly Chinese guy in Asia


t. partly Chinese Asian guy in Asia.

Anonymous said...

* it's very likely that the Chinese will not be able to dominate on their own.

Anonymous said...

Not likely. China's One Child policy will come back to haunt them by inverting their population pyramid. By 2050 China will spend most of its energy on caring for an aging population, much like present day Japan.

Sid said...

First, thank you for your kind words, AE, and I am glad you fond this issue worth considering.

If I had to guess, I would say the Chinese probably don't give all that much thought to African fertility. They ultimately consider that a domestic issue for the Africans, and they'd rather stay out of meddling.

China reversed its One Child Policy a few years ago, but the challenges of that long-held policy (a "graying" population, significantly more men than women) will read their heads for decades to come.

Still, I don't think too many Chinese have given much thought to mirroring issues in Africa.

As time passes, however, China's influence in Africa should only solidify. China would much rather dominate Asian affairs, but their neighbors are extremely wary of them and their burgeoning power. Will Japan, the Koreas, Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, and India sit around and let themselves be bullied in isolation? No, they're already taking steps to contain China, and we're helping that along.

In contrast, China has a lot of easy gains to make in Africa, and they won't let those gains slip through their fingers.

I don't think China will push for African demographic responsibility on their own, but I suspect the West could persuade them to help us with it if we push hard on the issue.

The country that probably has the most sway on Africa (excepting China) is France, and I've loved some of Macron's shitlord comments about African women having eight children.

In short, we in the West need to make African fertility an issue, and from there I suspect we could bring the Chinese on board. We'll see.

Jonathan Centauri said...

A White identity rebirth is inevitable. The ethnic fractures of the past were a result of the White Man's success. There is nothing like a common existential threat to bring people together. Christianity has been compromised. Its less Christ and more sad samaritan.
China only has eyes on the resources that blacks are too stupid to utilize. If they can drive them off they will, but wiping them out will be easy peasy as well. The tribal divisions in blacks are the perfect way to ensure their destruction. They are biological and permanent. The Chinese can simply arm the tribes and stand back as they slaughter each other. The blacks never learn to cooperate. The tribal loyalties are not that altruistic either.
The One Child Policy is problematic, but only in China. When young men have no wife and family it causes instability. However, that 40 tom 50 Millions of unmarried men would make the World's Largest Army. Taiwan, Africa and even South America make easy targets for that Grand Army, I expect.
Africa is a mess. The blacks cannot run it. They cannot even feed themselves. Arming the different tribes and cutting off aid from the West will cause a mass extinction event. That Wakanda Meteor will become like the Comet that wiped out the Dinosaurs.

Glen Filthie said...

Africa always wins.

the orientals rely on mass/hive social patterns. blacks are incapable of it. the only thing that will work for the Chinese is slave labour... but since even slavery requires intellect
the blacks will require too many yellows to manage them.
the smart money is on leaving Africa to Darwin and Murphy for the next 20 years, and maybe go in and see if anything is salvageable afterward.

Wency said...

China is in Africa for natural resources, which is the only economic reason anyone has ever gone to Africa. Expect the Chinese to do whatever they think will help them secure resources, which primarily means promoting stability. You don't want a country that you made investments in to turn into a war zone or to suddenly have some anti-Chinese demagogue take power and seize your investments.

High fertility is probably a negative for stability (mainly because it results in a bulge of youth, and the youth like to break things -- see the Boomers), but there are a lot of other factors at play. Ukraine has been a relatively unstable low-fertility country, for example.

It's mostly inevitable that China (and NE Asia more generally) will be the center of science and high-value economic activity on Earth. Anatoly Karlin has written quite a bit on this. Even accounting for the fact that NE Asians tend to underperform their IQs on a lot of measures of scientific output and economic creation, they are still catching up very rapidly on the highest-quality STEM research, even as they lag badly on Gender Studies output.

So compare the billion-plus Chinese against roughly half that number of whites in NA and NW Europe who will be increasingly distracted with schemes to keep Muslims, blacks, and Latinos pacified while experiencing increasing breakdown of institutions due to corruption and loss of social trust. If the Chinese are only half as productive per capita as the degraded West, they (or at least NE Asia) will still represent over half of global scientific and high-value economic activity.

I don't worry too much about this though. China is USG's key competitor and target, but it's not really *our* competitor -- a key and often unrecognized distinction. Empires have never done very much for the bulk of their home countries' inhabitants.

I don't believe you'll ever have a white ethnostate in NA though. What is the chain of events that leads this to happen? The only way I could see it is if someone pulled the trigger on attempting a white genocide before having the numbers to see it through. That sounds pretty far-fetched though. Most likely the U.S. follows the Latin American pattern of a mixed, corrupt, low-trust society, though still always a better place to live than anywhere in Latin America.

Jonathan Centauri said...

You cannot "stabilize" any black country. They do not really even exist. The African blacks belong to a tribe not a nation. Those nation states are now a fiction. A leftover from colonialism that serves as a zone for profiteering and charities. The tribes fight over the "gibs". The dictators and warlords get the lion's share and the rest split it, favoring the dominant tribe.
The Chinese can legally acquire the whole place. The black inability to plan and the innumeracy of no math skills means the Chinese can simply extend credit and loans, and then scoop it all up when these idiots cannot pay up. Without White Aid, these imbeciles will simply sign away anything, and the Chinese have MORE THAN ENOUGH MILITARY to back that up.

Anonymous said...

"It's mostly inevitable that China (and NE Asia more generally) will be the center of science and high-value economic activity on Earth."

Historically, NE Asia was a very stagnant place techwise. Prior to modernization, the most technologically advanced period in Chinese history had been the Song dynasty, and most of its output had been destroyed in subsequent ages.

Mark Presco said...

Wency said... “I don't believe you'll ever have a white ethnostate in NA though. What is the chain of events that leads this to happen? “

The difference between the US and Latin America is that we are running a massive welfare state. When the parasites are no longer being fed, all hell will break loose.

Hopefully, we will take the opportunity to rid ourselves of the leftist white parasites as well.

Feryl said...

WRT guns, using the OWNGUN variable and limiting to white men, it looks like the Silent Gen (born from 1925-1945) is the most likely to have a gun in the house. If that sounds odd, well, keep in mind that they've had way more money than anyone else. They're also the last generation to grow up in a climate of relative domestic peace (the late 30's-early 60's), and the subsequent unrest of the ensuing period evidently has spooked them into being armed.

Silent Gun owners: 60%

Boomers, 1946-1964: 51%

Gen X, 1965-1980: 44%

Millennials: 1981-2000: 35%

That basically parallels the poverty of each generation. Silents are the richest and have had the resources to buy guns and polish them in their free time. Each subsequent generation sees less and less need (and has less and less money) to bother with guns.

It also tracks the cynicism of each generation. Silents and Boomers grew up idealistic in a prosperous country, and then fucked it up, gave it up, and put on armor. X-ers and Millennials grew up in dystopian conditions and just don't think much of it, thus we don't care all that much about "self-defense".LARPING is biggest with older generations, who started pushing apocalyptic fantasies in the late 70's and have never stopped since. Silents and Boomers are apt to think of society as a place that could be better, if only we snuffed out the roving bands of marauders haunting us (see: Mad Max, any of them, it's pure Boomer fantasy). Gen X-ers and Millennials on the other hand think more in original sin terms; any one out there could be a scumbag, but there's degrees of scumbaggery; no amount of Kung Fu or munitions is going to change the fact that there's a lot of shitty people out there. What do you expect us to do about it? Blow 'em all away? And sure, a lot of dickheads out there that lie, cheat, and even steal, but BFD....That's just life and having a gun (or working out, or learning Kung Fu) isn't going to grant you magical properties that ward off all the bad guys.

I suspect early Boomers trend to the Silent paranoia, while later Boomers are closer to Gen X-ers in terms of not buying Mad Max LARPing. It's funny how those who grew up in Mid-century Mayberry feel so darn afraid of things, so insecure, while those who grew up dealing with pedophiles, serial killers, and mass-murders during the cultural decline of the last 50 years have more insouciance about it all. X-ers and Millennials don't fantasize about being one-man armies cleaning up the world. We do, however, have greater appreciation for the importance of doing small things, and trying to stay on good terms with others, that hopefully will make the world a better place for future generations.

Audacious Epigone said...

Basso,

They'll breed faster than you'll be able to eat them!

Chinese Guy,

Well taken, thanks.

It's usually easier to see the potential while missing the pitfalls from the outside looking in, as I obviously am.

There are all kinds of wildcards--how will China be effected by the inevitable collapse of the US dollar, for example--but broadly speaking, demographics are destiny, and the West's demographics are going to change a lot more in this century than Asia's will.

China is older than other 'developing' countries, but still younger than all the Western countries are (and they live longer). There are more Chinese under the age of 25 than the entire population of the US.

Sid,

Is there anyway to seriously retard African fertility without cutting off Western/international aid? Doubt it.

Is there anyway to seriously cut aid to Africa without a severe economic downturn in the West? Doubt it.

Relating to Mark's welfare state comment, when a collapse occurs and the dust settles, the future will come more clearly into view.

Jonathan,

What about South Africa? It's the canary in the coal mine and the results thus far are depressing. At what point do they fight back? If they won't, where's the guarantee other whites will?

Wakanda Meteor

Ha!

Glen,

Too bad it isn't a continent-sized wildlife refuge. It may become one though.

Wency,

Agree re: Chinese-Western antagonisms. An Ice People alliance, with mutual respect for maintaining influence in their own national neighborhoods, is where things would optimally settle.

As for an ethnostate, I don't think that's the most likely outcome. I think it's the most desirable one with at least a plausible chance of coming into being. Something resembling contemporary Mexico, Brazil, or maybe even Venezuela seems more likely, though.

Jig Bohnson said...

The most likely future for an ethnically unhinged US is not Brazil or Mexico, or South Africa, or Venezuela. It is Malaysia. The Muslim Malay majority basically extracts a set amount of gibs from the economically dynamic Chinese minority, and makes the Chinese, and other minorities such as Hindu Tamils, 'kiss the ring' by rubbing Muslim holidays in their faces. In exchange, the Chinese and other minorities are basically allowed to carry on with their lives, albeit chafing under high taxation and unfair set-asides for Malays in universities and whatnot.

Jonathan Centauri said...

Audie, this isn't South Africa. The Whites are hopelessly outnumbered and outgunned. The Feds are seriously baby stepping gun control here. One misstep and all fucking Hell will break loose.
The whole Federale Force is about inside the DC Metro Area. Its Lincoln's Legacy as you might say. Its all centrally located and easy to encircle. You can see the blue on an electoral map. You do not have to take it. You just have to cut it off and shut off the lights. 6 days or so, and you can take it over after you send in some maids and meat wagons to clean it up.

Feryl said...

"What about South Africa? It's the canary in the coal mine and the results thus far are depressing. At what point do they fight back? If they won't, where's the guarantee other whites will?"

Right now, white elites inWestern Europe and the English speaking countries still earnestly believe that all white people need to be held to account while all non-white people have halos. These elites exert so much pressure on not just their own countries, but on whites of Anglo-Teutonic descent everywhere. Remember that South African whites didn't buckle until the mid-90's; Silent and Boomer whites, by the mid-90's, were confident and driven in their tinkering and meddling with out affairs because aside from the 1970's, we'd had economic booms for essentially 40 straight years. Silents and Boomers were the most privileged generations in history, particularly those who didn't grow up in communist countries. Economic distress=let's mind our own damn business and be pragmatic. Decades of good fortune=let's experiment and moralize.Remember that the Boomers freaked out in the 60's over one basic fact: they didn't want anyone (parents, teachers, police, generals etc.) telling them what to do, what to wear, how to talk, etc.. It wasn't protest or rage over elite corruption and exploitation (which was at an all time low in the 50's and 60's); it rather was based on a sense of extreme entitlement and narcissism (we're better than older generations and we've got a right to tell them that they're bad and stupid).

So indeed the irony is that such overly privileged people would so buy into cultural Marxist narratives. Modern young people can be forgiven for buying into some form of Marxism since elites have been so decadent for the last 20-30 years. But those who grew up in Mayberry are evidently ashamed that they had it so good and are insistent on "spreading the wealth" to those who were "victims" for century after century (e.g., blacks, foreigners, homos, etc.).

What we also are seeing is that it is the ex-commie countries that don't buy into cultural Marxism. These countries' Boomers grew up in police states where forced labor, secret police, extreme censorship of unapproved ideas, and hypocritical/corrupt elites were the order of the day. They now are seeing more and more Western states fall into these traps; moreover, there's the added problem of much greater ethnic diversity in the modern West, which contributes to the focus on cultural rather than economic Marxism. But Marxism is Marxism; intellectual and preachy busy body elites live in luxury while micro-managing and repressing the middle to lower classes who aren't allowed to find their own way or even speak their minds.

Dereliction of elite duty will eventually be punished; it's just a matter of when and how.

Anonymous said...

"Dereliction of elite duty will eventually be punished; it's just a matter of when and how."

Not sure. Pre-1960 USA is obviously gone (I don't simply mean 1950 USA: I mean the whole US experiment 1750-1960). I'd suggest that the independent New Englanders in 1760 had something similar to what Irish settlers in 1870 in Wyoming had, and something similar to what California boomers in 1945 had. That is gone. Mexican, Somali, and Iraqi settlers in 2015 don't have it. In other words, in spite of dramatically different waves of immigration (English, then Scots Irish, then Catholic Irish and Catholic Italian, and so on), the American Experiment survived until about 1965. THAT is gone.

So rather than imagine white folks are going to wake up and regain that American Experiment form of civilization: perhaps it really is gone. Just as colonial settlers from Europe have slowly been killed or kicked back to the home continent, it may be more accurate to view USA as just one big colony that is fading away. Our story is different from most: we happened upon a relatively unpopulated territory and occupied it (rather than happen upon a populated territory and coexisted with the natives), but the story is the same: white expansion followed by white contraction.

So rather than imagine America as an 'civilization;' imagine it as a European colony. It happens to be a big, and powerful (and now, independent) colony-but a European colony nonetheless. A colony that is slowly shrinking away. Think of Algeria, in slow motion.

anon

Jonathan Centauri said...

"Peaceful coexistence" is IMPOSSIBLE. Admit this to yourself at least. The prospect of "White flight" is no longer workable. They are SENDING INVADERS to break up White communities. Seeing South Africa and the inability of any of you to get that IMBECILE RUMP to let them in while he lets in Somalis and Indians, should tell you THIS IS DELIBERATE.
Resident Rump is a traitor. The bankers don't have to BUY him. He is so far in debt, they OWN him. Waiting will just make this worse for you. look at South Africa. The Boers have NO ONE here letting them in.
Its time to crush this SCUM. It can be done. It must be done.

Fight or die. That is what your choices are now. They will continue to send more invaders to your hometown. This foul occupation fake government is YOUR ENEMY. THEM or YOU. They will not stop. They will try to take your guns and call you a racist while you are murdered and your children and women are raped.

Come with me if you want to live...

akarlin said...

The more I think about it, the more difficult it becomes--short of the CRISPR revolution or scalable nuclear fusion--to imagine the 21st being anything other than the Chinese century.

I'd say things are even bleaker. The Chinese are likely to adopt CRISPR sooner and in larger numbers (not held back by "Judeo-Christian values" or SJWs). Either the US "wins" the AI race soon or it's curtains on the European Age.

Jim Bowery said...

"...short of the CRISPR revolution or scalable nuclear fusion..."

Excerpting my old Usenet sig:

"Change the tools and you change the rules."

Hence my involvement with the early days of what became the Internet, legislating launch service privatization, the Hutter Prize for Lossless Compression of Human Knowledge (and related social science data compression prizes I'm working on) and advanced weapons technology utilizing locally available skills, tools and materials.

What I foresee happening, that is just as inevitable as the African population explosion, is the technologically super-empowered individual restructuring civilization. The Chinese do _not_ have us at an advantage in this regime. Even CRISPR favors the individual due to its incredibly low capital investment.

Sid said...

AE,

"Is there anyway to seriously retard African fertility without cutting off Western/international aid? Doubt it."

One reason why the Great Leap Forward was so brutal for China was that they gave away what little food they did produce to the Eastern Bloc and the Third World. The policy was absolutely insane, but Mao was happy to do that to gain international clout.

Granted, the current ChiComs aren't half as insane as Mao was. Not a tenth even. But I think if we were to cut international aid, the Chinese would see a great "soft power" opportunity, and give that aid on their own terms.

"Is there anyway to seriously cut aid to Africa without a severe economic downturn in the West? Doubt it."

Aid doesn't even cost all that much of our GDP.

What will be key will be stacking our aid with policies that incentivize responsible fertility rates in Africa. I think the Chinese can be persuaded to also tie their aid and infrastructure projects to said policies, but only if we (the West) make an issue of it.

And of course, only our little corner of the web is making an issue of it. We can't stop now.

Feryl said...

"the American Experiment survived until about 1965. THAT is gone"

America as the founding fathers understood it and envisioned it bit the dust in the mid-late 1800's when Catholics and Jews arrived in waves and brought increased crime levels, urban overcrowding, and political/financial corruption to America. WASP wasn't a slur before then; in early America, you either were black, Indian, or a British Isles/Dutch Protestant. Then the robber barons of the day wanted cheap labor, and voila, people with no ancestral affinity with either blacks or WASPs flooded into the country, transforming the identity of much of the Northeast as time went on, and also causing some discord in the Midwest and Far West. It wasn't until the mid-1920's that the gates were locked back up, something which caused resentment from the usual suspects, who evidently weren't grateful that for 60-70 years they were permitted to enter a country to which they were drawn for a myriad of reasons.

The 1965 immigration act didn't take effect until 1968, and even then, we still were nowhere near being fully committed to corporate welfare and neo-liberalism; elites weren't corrupt enough yet to deluge us with foreigners. The Southwest was hit first and hardest, with anecdotal reports of bad traffic getting worse, overcrowding, lots of foreign accents, etc. not showing up until the mid-late 80's in Los Angeles. Post-1980 economic booms made a lot of Americans glib about very high immigration levels, and meanwhile, corrupt elites were pushing sentimental BS about human rights and America being a nation of immigrants. It's not at all in keeping with the culture of the 1930's-70's when people were still concerned about elite arrogance and elites were still fairly responsive to these concerns. The year that things really started to unravel is 1975; that's when income inequality started rising after it fell from the 40's-60's, when Western elites began to promote off-shoring to a greater degree, when people started to get more emotional and less stoic (stoicism being a sign of people not wanting to draw undue attention to themselves), and so forth. The rise in competitiveness and poor faith first affected super elites (CEO's and the like) in the late 70's/early 80's, then affected "average" professionals in the late 80's, and by the late 90's even many working class people were becoming anxious over their status. Elites want cheap labor and servants, and they don't care how it affects their countrymen. That's why immigration levels gradually rose throughout the 70's and to the present day. Immigration was cut off in the late 20's-40's, then was at a reasonable level in the 50's-early 70's (perhaps still too much but certainly not enough to wreck the country). Since the mid-70's more and more classes of people have become glib about the effects of too much immigration.

If elites don't become more responsive, then they're really asking for it.

Feryl said...

Also, anon:

Elites who've gotten too big for their britches, and refuse to repent, are eventually punished. How?

1) Populist minded fellow elites gain the favor of the masses by fining, jailing, and perhaps even executing the most wayward and stubborn elites.

2) Alternatively, intransigent elites fend off any kind of accountability or reform, and in the process the nation crumbles into infighting and decadence, and it may take decades to recover if indeed a full recovery ever happens. This is what happened in the later 1800's in the US.

You can't be as arrogantly corrupt as Western elites are and get away with it forever. In addition, the very "values" that got us into this mess in the first place are primarily held by those born from about 1940-1970. Younger people are fed up with assholes climbing over each other trying to be king of the mountain. Since we've grown up around adults being insecure chest beating dick heads, it's just not cool or appealing to want to keep going down that road. Not when it's given us Dickensian inequality, massive levels of corruption, and people acting like two year olds well into middle age.

Passer by said...

China will be clearly the dominant power in the future. While people speak of japanese scenario, they forget that if China has similar GDP per capita to Japan (predicted by their IQ) they should eventually have 3 times the amount of total GDP of the US, therefore they will dwarf the US and will be clearly the most powerful country in the world.

In other words a Japan with an economy three times bigger than that of the US, with people with 15 IQ points higher than the US. This is quite serious, if you ask me.

They may get older, but they will also be the people with the highest IQ in the world. More than a billion of high IQ people. Do you know what this means?

The consensus among IQ experts has been that IQ will stay the same or drop in western countries and will increase by 7 IQ points in China, probably due to further Flynn effect gains by better nutrition and medical care, as millions of chinese join the middle class.

https://notpoliticallycorrect.me/2016/11/14/a-reversal-of-the-flynn-effect/

This means that you could have an IQ gap of 10 - 15 points between China and Western countries. Do you have any idea how serious this gap is? Its as if you compare the US and Mexico, only in the future it will be China instead of the US and the US instead of Mexico.

Feryl said...

" Most likely the U.S. follows the Latin American pattern of a mixed, corrupt, low-trust society, though still always a better place to live than anywhere in Latin America.

"There are all kinds of wildcards--how will China be effected by the inevitable collapse of the US dollar, for example--but broadly speaking, demographics are destiny, and the West's demographics are going to change a lot more in this century than Asia's will. "

As for an ethnostate, I don't think that's the most likely outcome. I think it's the most desirable one with at least a plausible chance of coming into being. Something resembling contemporary Mexico, Brazil, or maybe even Venezuela seems more likely, though."

But different regions are affected at different rates. America was already 10-15% black in the 70's, and then in subsequent decades we did nothing to push down the black birth rate (other than welfare reform in the mid-90's). On top of that other kinds of ethnic groups began moving here in large numbers in the 80' and 90's; they've reproduced as other waves have arrived in subsequent decades. But that's America; as I understand most parts of Britain weren't heavily affected by high immigration levels until the late 90's at the earliest.

In Scandinavia, Sweden is gaining a non-white population much faster than the other countries, with some Danish pols being pretty upfront about getting tighter control of immigration lest they go down the road that Sweden has. Austria has a vocal opponent of immigrants as PM, and unlike Trump or whoever is running Britain, he doesn't have to worry as much about cutting into the profits of New York and London.

I suspect that the Western countries which play their hand better might end up taking in white "refugees" who are tired of being soaked and treated like lepers by their native countries which have gone full cultural communist and been deluged with rapefugees.

The "good" news about America more resembling Latin America is that the quest for racial absolution and greater "diversity" will eventually be over, as light-skinned elites begin to despise the underclass and will mostly refuse to permit large numbers of immigrants, out of fear that they will swell the ranks of a restive underclass. Previous and almost entirely white generations of Westerners could afford to rile up minorities who at the time were just that: minorities. But if Los Angeles is home to a series of violent uprisings against "Anglos", well, elites just might change their tune. One Reginald Denny is a footnote, a few hundred Reginald Dennys could be cause for an epochal change in cultural identity and demographic awareness. LA is already close to this, but many of the remaining white Boomers and Gen X-ers still haven't quite processed what's going on; they still idealistically dream of a society where all ethnic groups get along and whites can finally feel content and free of guilt. Well, eventually that guilt will turn into fear.....And animus towards the dark hordes, after decades of vilifying white proles.

Feryl said...

I see America or England as going to the dark side first, literally and figuratively. If any country were get to get fubard in the near future. England will further villify and stigmatize white tradition and white proles to placate the Muslims, only for it to backfire as they find Muslims impossible to please and prone to territorial aggression (a new caliphate). In America, California could be ground zero for secession, blatant attempts to strip white traditions from the state, and agitate whites in general, even the liberal ones to say nothing of conservatives in the state and elsewhere.

Keep in mind that civil instability spikes every 50 years or so; it happened in the late 60's and early 70's, and it certainly went higher during Obama's 2nd term and Trump's first term. How much higher could it go? If Trump started having rallies in prep. for the 2020 election, how ugly is it going to get? The 2016 campaign could end up looking like a picnic, esp. if a Kamala Harris type is raising hell and openly declaring Trump the candidate for whites and traditionalists. And such a candidate could very well instigate more incidents like the 2016 San Jose Trump rally shitshow, where the cops looked the other way as Mexicans and anti-fa assaulted Trump supporters. Unless they happen on a military base, how many of Trump's future rallies in California will be safe and uneventful? Having the Dem be a POC California cult. Marxist in the 2020 election will likely lead to bloodshed and treason, given that a full term of Trump is going to make the cultural Marxists even more indignant and resentful, and the Dem candidate will likely do nothing to stabilize the situation. Neither will the media.

We could've cut our losses on cultural Marxism decades ago, but nope. Elites led the charge to demonize and eventually replace traditional white Western culture; what better way to do that than to replace the people. What started out as idealistic and well-meaning has turned into a nightmare of greed, treachery, and cynicism.

IHTG said...

Heads up: https://twitter.com/kausmickey/status/976577391081357312

Audacious Epigone said...

Jig Bohnson,

Will the Coalition of the Fringes be able to maintain enough cohesion to pull that off?

Feryl/anon,

Except that there is no home country/seat of empire to come home to.

akarlin,

I can't locate your post on AI/tech, the gist of which was Europe is out of the running and the race is between the US and China. You've been on a tear recently--don't think it was that long ago it was posted, but searched back through several pages on Unz and couldn't find it.

Jim,

As in CRISPR allowing individuals to become ubermensches?

Sid,

Right, it's a relative drop in the bucket, but will the political will exist to cut it? Only if the West finds itself in the throes of a deep recession, I'd guess.

Passer by,

Indeed. That's the population of the US, Canada, Australia, and Europe--combined. Younger, higher IQ, no moral hangups about "the other", no egalitarian ideologies getting in the way of science--serious indeed.

Feryl,

But if Los Angeles is home to a series of violent uprisings against "Anglos", well, elites just might change their tune

The legacy elites? Or is there even hope that the 2% sobers up?

IHTG,

Some speculation, maybe too hopeful:

- Schumer is terrified that Trump will declare the bill gives him wall funding and the shrieking invaders will go nuts (a la Nancy Pelosi) so he is preemptively essentially saying it provides nothing at all for said wall

- This gloating will piss Trump's base and tradcons more generally off, they'll make a fuss, and Trump will veto the bill, a veto which will have a 0% chance of being overturned

IHTG said...

"Inside Trump’s snow day": https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-trumps-snow-day-a-flurry-of-doubts-over-spending-bill-then-a-truce/2018/03/21/40927fae-2d38-11e8-8ad6-fbc50284fce8_story.html

Anonymous said...

I think my main opposition to the people, like Passerby and AE, is that their main metric is IQ and demographics, which - don't get me wrong - is very important, but when talking about international politics, it is only one of several factors to consider.

Consider the Koreas, for example. If genes dictate prosperity then the North should be almost as powerful and as rich as the south, yet it isn't.

Anothr problem with the IQ/demographics analysis is that it posits the survival of the existing Pax Americana world order. It won't. It is already dying, and the Asian economies will be net losers when it falls apart.

Geopolitics is more difficult to predict than demographic trends, because of the scope. Demographics is local, specific. geopolitics is not.

Audacious Epigone said...

Anon,

Points are well taken. Especially important is that the collapse of Pax Americana puts Asian economies in very precarious positions. Hard to tell what will come out of it.

Jig Bohnson said...

@AE: Yes, I predict so. In particular one of the reasons I think that Malaysia is the model is precisely because the intersectionality ethic of the US progressive coalition is strictly adhered to be the various groups and places Muslims at the top, so they will have a disproportionate say in constructing the future order.

Jonathan Centauri said...

Are you trying to be funny Anonymous? The Koreans are One People. The illusion of "prosperity" in the South is manufactured for propaganda purposes. The shot from orbit that shows all the streetlights and neon on the Southern side is hardly a sign of prosperity. Times Square may be full of neon lights, but its also full of hookers, drugs and shit literally on the street.
If the North is so weak, then why have the Neocons gone all out to attack it? Just target practice is it? Perhaps the lack of a Rothschild Vampyr Den of Thieves is the Real Reason, eh? The Vampyr stalks. It hunts down any victims that have not yet sacrificed their futures for the Endless Greed of the Babylonians and their Hubris.

God isn't Dead. They are...

Anonymous said...

What does fusion have to do with anything? Fission is enough for the foreseeable future - unless you’re thinking of its PR problems in the rich world, but then a future in which we can tolerate crispr is one where we can tolerate fusion.

Anonymous said...

Correction: “tolerate *fission*”

Feryl said...

"I think my main opposition to the people, like Passerby and AE, is that their main metric is IQ and demographics, which - don't get me wrong - is very important"

There's also generational character, and how it's expressed at different points in time and in different places. Throughout virtually the entire world, for example, the 60's and 70's were a time of social instability and cultural change. The nature of these changes differed from one place to another, but point is, a lot of stuff went down. Italy, for example, had their "years of lead" that started in the 60's and then petered out in the later 80's, so named because of the levels of extreme violence and volatility.

Trying to say that everything is encoded in DNA and race is just not true. White people lost interest in having kids, and protecting them, in the 60's and 70's; as did Asians in not just America, but also in, well, Asia. There are cultural phases we go through that are partly defined by the way that different generations deal with them.

Now that we've been passed any lingering traces of the 60's for well over 30 years at this point, it's difficult for X-ers and esp. Millennials to get the enormity of different cultural cycles. We just assume that everything and everyone is screwed up, though we may not agree on why or how we got here; the mistake here is to think in linear terms, acting as if where we are can be traced back to 1964 or whenever, when the reality is that people these days are not at all in the headspace of the 60's......Man. Young people in 1964 opposed most of their elders and thought that they were gonna "change it all"; young people in 1994 didn't have much of an opinion on anything; and young people in 2014 want to work with elders to create positive change and make the world kinder, gentler, and slower.

It's not only erroneous to think of history as linear, it's also ill-advised to think to think that any particular nation or people is somehow going to produce the same results, or even have the same potential, perpetually. Of course, some groups are better or worse than others, and always will be....But still, we shouldn't take anything for granted. MTV videos made in 1990 were edited much faster than the 1984 videos, and c'mon guys, it's not as if there was an invasion of blacks or Jews who did it. What happened is that people's headspace changed.....In the 60's-early 80's, people wanted to soak stuff in, to "experience" things. By the 1990's, people started to treat everything like a commodity and were becoming hyper competitive; gotta get rich, gotta get ratings, gotta grab people's attention, etc. That's why in 1997 people said that the 90's were their least favorite decade; it didn't matter that most people were fairly safe or secure, people could tell that something had gone badly awry, we just didn't feel excited about anything like we did in the previous decades; a pall of cynicism was sticking to us, as we felt that we didn't have anywhere else to go or anything to trust anymore. .

To go back to the 60's, people below the age of say, 40, all felt that as soon as JFK was shot, we felt.....Different. We couldn't just go back to school, back to work, back to our friends or family, and pretend that everything was peachy keen. And whether Oswald really did it or not, he fittingly was relatively young, and a harbinger of the unrest and agitation that would mark the 60's and 70's. These "awakenings" of passion and tempest only happen when particular generations go through adolescence and feel less than thrilled about the state of the world they were born into. They aren't shy about letting people know, either. Meanwhile, the slightly older generation feels obligated to mentor and feed the egos of the younger generation.

Audacious Epigone said...

Anon,

Fusion is this amateur's rhetorical stand in for any technological innovation that drastically reduces the cost of energy on a global scale.

akarlin said...

@ Anepigone,

I think it was this one: http://www.unz.com/akarlin/europe-cant-into-big-tech/

Recommend using something like Feedly to follow blogs, one benefit is that it makes searches much easier too.

Audacious Epigone said...

Anatoly,

Yep, that's it, thanks.

I stopped using feeds when my first child was born. Should go back to doing so, instead of just keeping tabs open on all my "must reads" and refreshing whenever I get to the first post I've already seen.

Wazoo said...

There will be a CRISPR revolution but it will be in China. The Chinese are in the forefront of research into the genetic basis of IQ, which means they will pull ahead even faster in the years to come.