Wednesday, January 17, 2018

The dark decline

++Disclaimer++The 2015 data assigns a racial/ethnic classification to 99.7% of all recorded births, while the 2016 data only assigns one to 97.0% of all recorded births. I am unsure why the discrepancy is so large between the two years, but it creates the appearance of a larger decline in births by race/ethnicity across the board than actually exists in terms of total births. There was a 0.9% decline in the absolute number of births between 2015 and 2016.

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The following table and graph show the change in non-Hispanic black births from 2015 to 2016, by state (for whites, see here). Mixed-race births are not included in these counts:

State%▲
1) South Dakota+10.7
2) North Dakota+6.8
3) Massachusetts+0.6
4) Connecticut+0.3
5) District of Columbia+0.1
6) Florida(1.3)
7) Iowa(1.6)
8) Georgia(2.3)
9) Texas(2.6)
10) Minnesota(3.1)
11) Alabama(3.2)
12) Mississippi(3.3)
13) Maryland(3.5)
14) Louisiana(3.8)
15) Tennessee(4.9)
16) North Carolina(5.0)
17) Delaware(5.2)
United States(5.3)
18) Nevada(5.3)
19) Indiana(5.5)
20) Virginia(5.6)
21) Illinois(5.7)
22) Ohio(5.9)
23) Michigan(6.0)
24) New York(6.4)
25) Arkansas(6.8)
26) Kentucky(7.1)
27) South Carolina(7.1)
28) Wisconsin(7.5)
29) Missouri(7.6)
30) New Jersey(9.4)
31) Idaho(9.6)
32) Pennsylvania(9.8)
33) Nebraska(10.1)
34) Arizona(10.9)
35) Maine(11.2)
36) California(11.3)
37) Oklahoma(12.0)
38) New Hampshire(12.2)
39) Kansas(12.6)
40) Colorado(12.9)
41) West Virginia(15.9)
42) Washington(16.3)
43) Rhode Island(17.8)
44) Utah(19.1)
45) Hawaii(19.9)
46) Alaska(24.4)
47) New Mexico(25.6)
48) Wyoming(27.6)
49) Oregon(29.2)
50) Montana(36.0)
51) Vermont(46.6)

Courtesy

Eighteen states show double-digit percentage decreases in births in 2016 compared to 2015. None of those states are heavily black, nor are they on their way to becoming so. Nationwide, the black fertility rate per capita is still about 20% higher than the white fertility rate is, but the gap has been narrowing for decades. At the current rate, white and black fertility will have reached parity in a couple of decades, and the total fertility rate before that. Can't wait to see the major media celebrate the elimination of that gap!

The east-west divide in changes in fecundity is even starker with black births than it is with white births. As Feryl will undoubtedly notice, the hot, swampy tropical South suits blacks.

The energy boom in the Dakotas have attracted a lot of younger people from all of the country. Americans will do jobs Americans won't do if the wages are right, and while they've receded some from their peaks a few years ago, it's a laborer's market in both those states. Black births are up considerably there.

25 comments:

IHTG said...

Something I said on the Lion of the Blogosphere blog recently:

Imagine you had to select one of the following:

1) Ten million black Americans marrying ten million white Americans and having mixed race babies.

2) Twenty million foreign Mexicans immigrating into America and forming closed, bloc-voting ethnic enclaves.

Which one of these you prefer, or rather which one horrifies you the most, determines whether you’re more of a white nationalist or an American nationalist.


I identify a relatively reduced focus on blacks as an attribute of the newer strands of the alt-right, compared to the older generation that is still haunted by the controversies of decades past over desegregation, busing, white flight, etc.

alex69elijah9yaki said...

Native Americans have the lowest fertility rate of all ethnicities / races in the USA, then the Asians, non-Hispanic whites would be in the middle, blacks have a slightly higher birth rate than whites, and finally Hispanics have the highest fertility rate of all, except for Hispanics, all ethnic groups have a birth rate below the replacement level, so if there was no immigration, the Asian population (and also the black population), would stop grow.

Audacious Epigone said...

IHTG,

Yes, that's an interesting thought experiment. Salience has a lot do with it, doesn't it? The country was a lot more black-and-white a couple generations ago than now, pun intended.

Alex,

Indeed. With white rates converging on black ones and higher than American Indians and Asians, an immigration moratorium paired with a repatriation of non-citizens would go a long way--maybe all the way--to stabilizing the demographic situation.

Peter Johnson said...

Interesting that Black births are declining even more sharply - not sure how to interpret that in terms of medium-term changes in population ratios. I did the same excel analysis as you, but less elegantly:

All White Black Hispanic
-0.92% -3.53% -5.30% -0.75%
-0.81% -2.51% -3.20% 6.69%
-0.57% -11.52% -24.41% 0.12%
-0.97% -4.68% -10.89% -0.86%
-1.72% -3.08% -6.78% 1.40%
-0.61% -6.32% -11.31% -2.28%
0.10% -3.02% -12.88% 2.10%
0.69% -4.24% 0.34% 4.16%
-1.59% -2.25% -5.16% -6.59%
2.91% 3.09% 0.12% 1.50%
0.34% -3.17% -1.29% 2.84%
-1.00% -3.87% -2.27% 0.71%
-1.88% -23.87% -19.93% -0.25%
-1.49% -2.99% -9.58% -0.82%
-2.33% -3.66% -5.69% -3.70%
-1.13% -2.26% -5.54% -2.50%
-0.28% -2.12% -1.56% 1.55%
-2.81% -4.61% -12.64% -0.03%
-0.95% -2.57% -7.09% 4.46%
-2.20% -2.86% -3.76% -2.70%
0.79% -0.65% -11.23% -5.18%
-0.67% -3.53% -3.47% 1.11%
-0.28% -2.88% 0.60% 2.72%
-0.31% -1.93% -6.04% 0.51%
-0.10% -2.27% -3.09% 0.41%
-1.25% -1.21% -3.28% 3.29%
-0.55% -2.95% -7.65% 2.27%
-2.42% -4.99% -35.96% -4.36%
-0.32% -2.42% -10.05% 0.71%
-0.05% -6.84% -5.34% 1.31%
-1.24% -2.47% -12.24% 9.08%
-1.05% -1.51% -9.36% -2.84%
-5.20% -3.40% -25.63% -6.12%
-1.11% -2.94% -6.42% -1.96%
-0.05% -2.03% -5.03% 1.48%
0.62% -3.51% 6.81% 0.86%
-0.82% -3.23% -5.87% 6.43%
-0.93% -8.35% -11.98% 1.97%
-0.22% -3.34% -29.15% -0.60%
-1.84% -4.05% -9.84% 2.08%
-1.60% -5.16% -17.84% 2.60%
-1.36% -2.93% -7.14% 3.91%
-0.47% -2.49% 10.67% 13.42%
-1.02% -2.90% -4.91% 5.45%
-1.65% -4.67% -2.59% -1.78%
-0.62% -1.77% -19.10% 1.14%
-2.52% -3.04% -46.56% -2.88%
-2.03% -3.94% -5.58% 0.79%
1.72% -3.62% -16.32% 2.85%
-3.81% -5.45% -15.90% 14.55%
-0.64% -2.11% -7.45% -1.47%
-4.85% -6.96% -27.59% 1.04%

Anonymous said...

I've been waiting for this to happen. The reason BLM went supernova is because black America realizes it's finished. The Obama era was as good as it gets. None of the important gaps have closed, and black people have already been out-competed at the low end by the hispanics. They're done. I expect deaths of despair to begin to creep up slowly, then go white hot as the despair really takes hold (in a white-hot economy, no less). There will be a media panic, but a more atomized public won't take the bait.

Peter Johnson said...

In my earlier comment, the "State" column did not copy, for which I apologize.

State All White Black Hispanic
United States -0.92% -3.53% -5.30% -0.75%
Alabama -0.81% -2.51% -3.20% 6.69%
Alaska -0.57% -11.52% -24.41% 0.12%
Arizona - 0.97% -4.68% -10.89% -0.86%
Arkansas -1.72% -3.08% -6.78% 1.40%
California -0.61% -6.32% -11.31% -2.28%
Colorado 0.10% -3.02% -12.88% 2.10%
Connecticut 0.69% -4.24% 0.34% 4.16%
Delaware -1.59% -2.25% -5.16% -6.59%
DC 2.91% 3.09% 0.12% 1.50%
Florida 0.34% -3.17% -1.29% 2.84%
Georgia -1.00% -3.87% -2.27% 0.71%
Hawaii -1.88% -23.87% -19.93% -0.25%
Idaho -1.49% -2.99% -9.58% -0.82%
Illinois -2.33% -3.66% -5.69% -3.70%
Indiana -1.13% -2.26% -5.54% -2.50%
Iowa -0.28% -2.12% -1.56% 1.55%
Kansas -2.81% -4.61% -12.64% -0.03%
Kentucky -0.95% -2.57% -7.09% 4.46%
Louisiana -2.20% -2.86% -3.76% -2.70%
Maine 0.79% -0.65% -11.23% -5.18%
Maryland -0.67% -3.53% -3.47% 1.11%
Massachusetts -0.28% -2.88% 0.60% 2.72%
Michigan -0.31% -1.93% -6.04% 0.51%
Minnesota -0.10% -2.27% -3.09% 0.41%
Mississippi -1.25% -1.21% -3.28% 3.29%
Missouri -0.55% -2.95% -7.65% 2.27%
Montana -2.42% -4.99% -35.96% -4.36%
Nebraska -0.32% -2.42% -10.05% 0.71%
Nevada -0.05% -6.84% -5.34% 1.31%
NewHampshire -1.24% -2.47% -12.24% 9.08%
NewJersey -1.05% -1.51% -9.36% -2.84%
NewMexico -5.20% -3.40% -25.63% -6.12%
NewYork -1.11% -2.94% -6.42% -1.96%
NorthCarolina -0.05% -2.03% -5.03% 1.48%
NorthDakota 0.62% -3.51% 6.81% 0.86%
Ohio -0.82% -3.23% -5.87% 6.43%
Oklahoma -0.93% -8.35% -11.98% 1.97%
Oregon -0.22% -3.34% -29.15% -0.60%
Pennsylvania -1.84% -4.05% -9.84% 2.08%
RhodeIsland -1.60% -5.16% -17.84% 2.60%
SouthCarolina -1.36% -2.93% -7.14% 3.91%
SouthDakota -0.47% -2.49% 10.67% 13.42%
Tennessee -1.02% -2.90% -4.91% 5.45%
Texas -1.65% -4.67% -2.59% -1.78%
Utah -0.62% -1.77% -19.10% 1.14%
Vermont -2.52% -3.04% -46.56% -2.88%
Virginia -2.03% -3.94% -5.58% 0.79%
Washington 1.72% -3.62% -16.32% 2.85%
WestVirginia -3.81% -5.45% -15.90% 14.55%
Wisconsin -0.64% -2.11% -7.45% -1.47%
Wyoming -4.85% -6.96% -27.59% 1.04%

DissidentRight said...

1) Ten million black Americans marrying ten million white Americans and having mixed race babies.
2) Twenty million foreign Mexicans immigrating into America and forming closed, bloc-voting ethnic enclaves.


1) "White American" is a redundancy. "Black American" is an oxymoron. Blacks are merely Americanized. The number of blacks who genuinely support the Constitution (i.e., they reject civic nationalism realize that "secure the blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our posterity" was never about them) is negligible, although some occasionally comment on Vox Day's blog.

2) Does "white nationalism" mean I'm supposed to embrace socialist Scandinavian cucks? Or for that matter liberal white urbanites? Never gonna happen. White civic nationalism is the poisoned root of universal civic nationalism.

But to answer the question, #2 is obviously preferable because the cleanup process is far easier, and could perhaps even be solved politically. Miscegenation, on the other hand, is guaranteed to lead either to war or irreversible national evolution.

Audacious Epigone said...

Peter,

Great! Thanks for the double-check. Have done Hispanics and will put into map form, which I think is a handy visual, tomorrow.

Anon,

Agree. Without expanding numbers, it is hard to see how black America hasn't peaked in terms of influence, both real and perceived.

DissidentRight,

#2 is solved by carving off a slice for the 20 million who've effectively colonized it. #1 forces an entire culture and way of life.

luke jones said...

@Anon

That's not going to happen. Black America was living under worse conditions and circumstances for many decades prior, yet didn't have large rates of suicide nor deaths from despair. http://thosewhocansee.blogspot.com/2017/07/segregation-our-most-cherished-myths.html

Also, the influence of Black America on US culture doesn't seem to be declining any time soon, especially among Gen-z

Audacious Epigone said...

Luke,

Is black influence on gen Z stronger than on millennials? My sense is it peaked in the late 90s and early 2000s, but I’m woefully uninformed on pop culture.

Who is the biggest black name now? Is it still Beyonce? She’s from that peak period tho. That was Eminem’s heyday as well, and he is about the most blatant example of whites imitating blacks. Biggest names I think of now in pop culture are Katy perry, Taylor Swift, Luke Bryan. Besides will smith (also from peak period), who are biggest movie stars? Pretty much all white aren’t they?

Audacious Epigone said...

Seems like he aesthetic has become more nerdy and more waspy among whites. See more young white guys in slacks and polos and less imitating black sagging than when I was in high school.

luke jones said...

@Audacious Epigone

Wigger tendencies are still a thing with many Gen-Z whites (there is actually a slightly higher number of white rappers out now than a decade ago.) Many Black artist continue to get near or above 100 million views on YouTube. Black artist more or less dominated the Grammy's in 2017. Sagging pants became out-of-fashion with blacks since the mid-2000's that's why you don't see it anymore. As far as actors go, there's Idris Elba, Kevin Hart and Michael B. Jordan.

IHTG said...

Black culture has even had an influence on the alt-right. Smh fam.

Sid said...

When I was in high school in the mid-2000s, it was considered fairly normal for white people to act black. The mindset was that blacks were cooler and more athletic than whites, so white men sagging their pants, parroting Ebonics, listening to rap and the like was considered a means to become cooler yourself, while also acknowledging that black culture was better than white culture, proving you weren't racist.

Nowadays, though, I think this mindset is a lot more "problematic" than it used to be. Cultural appropriation comes to mind!

Dave Chappelle said he stopped his comedy routine because he didn't like whites aping his culture anymore. That attitude seems to be more common among blacks than it used to be - you're not black and you're not allowed to corrupt our way of living.

Twelve years ago, it seemed like blacks thought whites imitating their culture was a sign of deference and abasement, but now it seems more likely they think it's a sign of mockery and polluting their culture. If you're a white guy and blacks chew you out for pretending to be one of them, you're going to cut the cornrows and wear a belt.

That said, I don't hang out around high schools, so this is more guessing than anything.

wrt to blacks despairing a la the White Death, I think blacks are far less inclined to suicidal hopelessness than whites are. The White Death came from the jobs leaving town and whites getting addicted to opioids from old injuries, as well as abusing alcohol and narcotics. Blacks have self-destructive tendencies, but it's more of what you see in BLM where they burn their cities down and aggressively fire off at each other in the rubble. Blacks becoming even more of a underclass with nothing to lose seems more likely to me than their self-medicating themselves to death in their despair, but who knows, that their birth rates are also coming down says something.

Audacious Epigone said...

Luke,

Thanks. I’m obviously not knowledgeable enough to engage beyond that. I wonder what a way to try and gauge it quantitatively might be. Are the Grammys driven by the preferences of teenagers more than young adults? I don’t know.

IHTG,

Assertiveness is a black trait the alt right has benefitted from emulating.

Audacious Epigone said...

Sid,

The r/K selection theory, which I’m quite skeptical of wrt intraspecies behavior, says that in tough times the reproduction edge for r should be *greater* than in good times, which can’t really be squared with a black depression spiral.

luke jones said...

Suicide rates in the black community remains the lowest of any racial group in America.

https://www.sprc.org/racial-ethnic-disparities
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hestat/suicide/rates_1999_2014.pdf
https://afsp.org/about-suicide/suicide-statistics/

With the exception of some ethnic groups like the Igbo people, suicide isn't exceptionally common among Sub-Saharan Africans and their diaspora.

@Audacious Epigone

Declining birth rates in the black community are largely driven by increased access to birth control, mostly by black women who are already mothers and want to cut down on family size.

Feryl said...

'My sense is it peaked in the late 90s and early 2000s, but I’m woefully uninformed on pop culture.

Who is the biggest black name now? Is it still Beyonce? She’s from that peak period tho. That was Eminem’s heyday as well, and he is about the most blatant example of whites imitating blacks"

Yeah, that was peak wigger. The Offspring did a joke song about these white kids in 1998.

Part of the reason we're past peak wigger is that blacks themselves have changed. Gen X black culture was very brash and coarse, while Gen X whites often made fun of how lame they themselves were. So I suppose some prole whites thought it would be cool to act black. These days young blacks are a lot different than they were in the 80's or 90's. In the 90's it was common for white people to think that blacks "kept it real", that they faced long odds, were toughened up by living in horrendous ghettos, etc. The notion was that white people were soft, shallow, and phony compared to earthy blacks. The horrible fashion of the late 90's was to a fairly large degree influenced by black thug/prison culture.

The Youth Risk Survey reveals that those born in the later 80's and beyond are actually experiencing much less danger/violence than earlier generations did in the 90's. With the environment being palpably safer (only Boomers still believe that things are "more" dangerous than ever), the importance of young people being "tough" isn't what it used to be. Blacks born over the last 20-30 years don't have the same swagger that older generations of blacks did, and whites no longer feel the same level of insecurity over a perceived lack of style or toughness like they once did. I mean, the mind boggles at how the much whiter cohorts born in the 60's, 70's and early 80's got into fights, brought weapons to school, skipped classes, etc. Meanwhile, the much darker birth cohorts of the last 30 years live a more uneventful youth. True, there's still a handful of god-awful all or mostly black ghetto areas, but that's the exception, not the rule, in terms of what Gen Z has experienced.

BTW, school violence (as measured by fights) peaked in the 70's (due to the heavily white "wild child"/thrash metal cohort born from about 1958-1965). It's striking how many white late Boomers and X-ers project their own behavioral problems onto non-whites. Have you ever actually heard your late Boomer relatives honestly talk about their own youths? They did all kinds of crazy crap.

luke jones said...

@Feryl

"With the environment being palpably safer (only Boomers still believe that things are "more" dangerous than ever), the importance of young people being "tough" isn't what it used to be. Blacks born over the last 20-30 years don't have the same swagger that older generations of blacks did, and whites no longer feel the same level of insecurity over a perceived lack of style or toughness like they once did"

This mostly isn't true. Hypermasculinity and toughness is still the it thing for current black youth, as exemplified by current black pop culture trends. While millennial and gen-z whites are largely pacified in terms of violence and drug use compared to their baby boomer and gen-x counterparts, the same can't be said for their black counterparts (for the most part).

Random Dude on the Internet said...

> I've been waiting for this to happen. The reason BLM went supernova is because black America realizes it's finished. The Obama era was as good as it gets. None of the important gaps have closed, and black people have already been out-competed at the low end by the hispanics. They're done. I expect deaths of despair to begin to creep up slowly, then go white hot as the despair really takes hold (in a white-hot economy, no less). There will be a media panic, but a more atomized public won't take the bait.

I've heard that theory a few times before but I don't really buy it. Black political groups rarely think in terms of long term ramifications for their people. Instead it always boils down to more gibs and rewriting the laws so black people get away with more. BLM employs both. I think it's just the opposite: BLM was created because they think they are on the upswing in terms of power and they want to flex their (perceived) new political muscle to get more gibs and rewrite the laws so black people can get away with more. Then Soros funds them because they can be used as a cudgel to cow guilty whites. Then one of them shot a few cops in Dallas and Soros has been funneling his money towards antifa ever since.

Feryl said...

RDI -

Keep the popcorn handy. Since the cohorts born since the late 80's immigration explosion are much less white and black than traditional demographics, I foresee a future in which graying Boomers and X-ers are largely clueless about America's transformation, especially if they live outside of California. Sure, they can superficially tell that things have changed, but since one's generational peers always take precedence, older generations generally act as though America is still a majority white country by a considerable margin and blacks are the biggest and most important minority.

Also, the conflict that invariably arises from greater ethnic diversity will amuse us woke folk while horrifying people born before circa 1970 who always fear that a new holocaust/authoritarianism is just around the corner. It should come as no surprise to us younger people that surveys show younger people to be much less concerned about privacy issues, strongmen politics, and personal autonomy than X-ers and especially Boomers. The damage wrought by about 2 1/2 generations (later Silents, Boomers, early X-ers) primarily concerned about not having anyone tell them how to live their life is certainly a major problem, and who knows if we'll ever be able to fix it in time. But at least we'll be on hand to say "I told you so". Speaking of naivete, it's become a canard that everything changed overnight after 1965. Bullshit. That act didn't take effect until about 1968, and furthermore, the economic problems of the 70's and early 80's kept immigration relatively low compared to future levels. Then there's the fact that the 1950's and early 60's actually had moderate immigration levels, and some of these immigrants came from Latin America. Truth be told, we've been accumulating the effects of blank slatism and idealism since the end of WW2. But the older you are, the less severe the damage has been to you.

Coverage of cop violence has lessened since Trump won. Rallying to the cause of dubious black "victims" turned out to be a major own goal by the Left. They've switched gears to non-stop promotion of Trump (and other nationalist leaders) as an all-purpose evil doer who needs to be derided and protested. Instead of focusing on such a niche victim group (young black inner city males) being terrorized by the police, the Left wised up and is now selling the idea that basically everyone is the victim of a bullying and stupid kleptocrat. They also seem to realize that military and police are important institutions and are more respected than many other institutions at the moment. It's going to be hard for either side to get things done if they revive 1960's young Leftist rhetoric that is hostile to all forms of government authority, especially the kind the carries a gun. Furthermore, Boomers remain the most hostile to police, adjusting for age factors (e.g., middle aged Boomers are more hostile to police than middle aged GIs were, and young people by default have some problem with authority, though Millennials and Gen Z appear to be less hostile to police, adjusting for race, than Boomers and X-ers were/are).

Audacious Epigone said...

Feryl,

My perception is that social ostracization is as far as 'bullying' goes now outside of ghetto schools, which have always and will always be chaotic disasters. I got into a couple of fights in middle school in the late 90s. From talking to people involved now (my sister is a teacher), that's a rarity.

Feryl said...

Gen X youngsters were terrible bullies, and I get the hunch that they're terrified of their Gen Z kids having the same experience that they did. Of course, X-ers aren't stupid or oblivious to the fact that their kids aren't showing up to home with bumps/bruises/cuts like teenagers invariably did back in the 70's-90's. As for the oft-stated opinion (among Boomers) that schools are "worse than ever" these days, that's bullshit. And btw, it's not as if white suburban/small town schools were idyllic back in the 70's-early 2000's. I myself carried a knife to school on some occasions in the very late 90's and early 2000's, and this was in a lower middle class suburban high school that was at the time around 80-85% authentically white American. Violence among teens, domestic violence, etc. was much worse in the 70's-90's, and by the mid 2000's Millennial youths and Gen X adults presided over a change in culture that's put us in a much different place than we were in the 80s and 90's, when most adults were Boomers and X-er youth created a highly fractious and tense landscape.

Boomers were (rightfully) concerned about teen violence/drug use etc. back in the 80's/90's/early 2000's, but the culture has changed a lot since then. Since the vast majority of Boomers haven't had kids in grade school for quite some time at this point, many Boomers still erroneously conflate Gen X youth culture with Gen Z youth culture (with Millennials, as you might imagine, being a cross between the two generations with people born from about 1980-1986 not dissimilar from X-ers).

Corvinus said...

"Gen X youngsters were terrible bullies, and I get the hunch that they're terrified of their Gen Z kids having the same experience that they did."

Please stop. You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. Generation X was replete with bullies. Their conduct is exactly why our society have these anti-bullying campaigns. Most boys of the Generation X got bullied at some point, but eventually they manned up, overcame the cowardice, and confronted the bully. Now, he may have gotten his ass kicked, but they bullying would cease or occur less frequently out of respect. That is how Generation X did it while growing up, and we are much tougher as a result of it. The trend today us to be non-confrontational and the exact opposite of what we learned growing up. My sons are learning to man up, and are given the accordingly strategies and tactics.

"I myself carried a knife to school on some occasions in the very late 90's and early 2000's, and this was in a lower middle class suburban high school that was at the time around 80-85% authentically white American."

Yes, that's how Generation X boys rolled back in the day. Teachers, both men and women, would simply ask for the boys to put them away. Now, it's an automatic suspension from school.

Feryl said...

"Generation X was replete with bullies."

That's exactly what I said. Terrible can mean great, as in ya know, large. Dinosaur means "terrible lizard".

It's funny how "great" and "terrible" have mostly lost their original usage related to size, and these days usually mean "good" and "bad".