Sunday, January 21, 2018

Gen Z backing a coup against Trump?

tcjfs slips a black pill into the Gen Z martini. From Survey Monkey:


Reuters-Ipsos similarly shows less satisfaction with Trump among younger Republicans than among older cohorts (N = 9,124):


R-I is suboptimal in that it doesn't allow 18-24 year-olds--that is, actual Gen Zs--to be separated out from millennials. Those currently aged 25-34 represent, as best I can tell, peak SJWism. The cresting was apparent in the Alabama Senate race, for example (keep in mind that the 18-24 cohort is the least white one--Moore won big among white Zs, but just barely if at all among white millennials):


It's conceivable that this is an indication, at least in part, of less patience among younger Republicans than among older ones. My sense is it is much more a case of younger Trump voters accusing the god-emperor of being co-opted by the tribe into pushing a bellicose Israel-First foreign policy, compromised by the deep state, cucking on this or that, etc than it is older Trump voters doing so. President Trump is closer to GOPe business-as-usual than candidate Trump was. 

A couple of potentially contrasting data points to keep in mind, in any case.

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

A certain King or Nehlen wouldn't hurt.

Audacious Epigone said...

The next step for identitarians is to get one of our own in a position of elected political power. Ron Paul did an enormous amount to raise the profile of libertarianism in the US. We have a good time here in the US knocking libertarians for their lack of understanding HBD. They don't do that in Europe because there aren't any libertarians in Europe. They don't have a Ron Paul on the old continent.

IHTG said...

AE: Is that really the "next step"? I think the experiences of poor Steve Bannon over the last six months suggest it's maybe not the best idea. And at best, it's more of a long-term thing because these identitarian politicians are going to be starting out at the House level where they're just one vote out of hundreds. Steve King is an awesome guy, but he's not exactly in the position to make America great again.

But what I do see is that there's promise in working with the best of the existing high-level GOP politicians and pushing them further in your direction. Tom Cotton and even Jeff Sessions weren't like what they are now ten years ago.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/in-spending-fight-republicans-embrace-trumps-hard-line-stand-on-immigration/2018/01/19/9397be3a-fd3b-11e7-a46b-a3614530bd87_story.html

In McConnell’s orbit, there is a sense that much of the Senate Republican Conference is closer to Cotton and Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) on immigration than it is to Graham, even if they are not as vocal about it.

Anonymous said...

Opinions are most malleable at this age. The quiet support for non-interventionist candidate Trump, who made no general election comments about socon ideas, has been challenged. This is the likeliest group to have non-white peers and be enrolled in institutions of higher indoctrination. The guilt-tripping has been ongoing, and it will cause defectors.

Plenty of white Alabama GOP voters were "embarrassed" by Roy Moore, in the way bicoastal elite voters felt about the GOP since Pat Buchanan's culture wars speech in 1992. The desire to feel accepted cannot be discounted, and I'm not sure how you can adjust to this without separatism.

If there is no recession by 2020, we might see a significant drop in black and youth unemployment assuming an amnesty doesn't pass and ICE continues strategic deportations. That could crater the Dem turnout.

Anonymous said...

Another thought

While Twitter is highly effective for Trump, 2-1 of those polled want him to quit. I've never seen an age breakdown of that question, but it might be important here. The older GOP voter is likely a Rush Limbaugh listener or a Fox News viewer. The younger GOP voter is not consuming their information from the Alt-Right. They are much more likely to be sourcing it from Ben Shapiro.

Trump got a large amount of free coverage from the leftist media, who thought he would lose in a landslide. Now that he won, coverage is entirely hostile. The large social media sites have also restricted the Alt Right, and the very real assistance from Russia has disappeared.

The brinkmanship with North Korea might also play a role, as many take it as a serious threat of war, rather than the amusement we see it as.

Other than that, I am sticking to the "guilt-tripping" theory. A large majority of white people will grovel when called "racist", it is the single worst word you can call a white person. Younger Trump voters are in a struggle session with the campus and digital Cultural Marxists, they will break down.

What was the sampling number?

Anonymous said...

The #MeToo hysteria also might be making an impact, my hunch is that the younger voter is more likely to believe the sexual assault claims.


http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2017/08/generation-zyklons-white-guys-favored.html

This data hints at large gender gaps, is there one here too?

Random Dude on the Internet said...

I'd say a lot of it is rooted in the impatience of the younger crowd. If you think about it from that perspective, it makes sense: wall construction hasn't started, no infrastructure spending bill in sight, no special counsel assigned to investigate and arrest Hillary, and he spent weeks wasting time on Iran, North Korea, and Syria. Not to mention that he has made several missteps, the most egregious one being letting Mueller run around wild for months when it is obvious he has nothing and the longer he hangs around, the more and more likely it is that he will find something stupid enough and minor enough for the media to spin it into something major and drag the investigation out further. Also, Trump's constant kissing up to Israel is nonsensical to younger people, both on the right and left. I'd say anyone under 40 would have a hard time understanding why we'd need to recognize Jerusalem as the rightful capital of Israel and even more would have a harder time caring.

I can understand and agree with that to an extent. I think Trump has wasted more time than he should with issues that don't matter. However 2018 is shaping up to be a much stronger year for him than 2017, which may be intentional to ensure that the Republicans retain the House and Senate. However time is ticking away and if no wall is being built by 2020, Trump will likely end up as a one term president, regardless of how well the economy is doing. 2018 is going to have to be a year where people need to start seeing more tangible results, considering how most kids under 30 don't have a 401k.

The short summary of all that I wrote above is that younger people don't think Trump is doing enough, especially the things he promised that was such a big draw to him in the first place.

Anonymous said...

Jeff Sessions has also been going after marijuana. If the GOP Congress had any sense, they'd pass a bill removing it from Schedule 1.

The average younger GOP voter is no Nick Fuentes when it comes to drugs.

mark auld said...

I thought that gen z was the most red pilled of all the age groups;perhaps it's the impatience of youth?

Audacious Epigone said...

IHTG,

Operating on the assumption that we're already to working on establishment figures like Sessions/King/Cotton. When Chris Christie, of all people, unexpectedly backed Trump after dropping out following South Carolina (iirc--may have been a little before or after then), it was apparent that it had begun happening to some degree.

Still, there are MPs in European countries who say things that are far more explicit than any currently sitting US politician has said.

Anon,

I suspect the tweet yes, tweet no mirrors his reported approval rate, which is close to 2-to-1 unfavorable, too. Forget that. We are entering a phase of American disunity where it is unlikely any elected official will enjoy a national approval rate above 50%. Everyone is going to be underwater indefinitely, irrespective of partisan affiliation, until the country begins breaking apart politically.

For 18-29, n = 1754. For young Republican men, it's 67% approval. For women, 58%.

As for the #MeToo allegations, that's what makes this especially surprising, as recent R-I polling showed young Trump-voting men had no time for it.

Regarding the social pressure, yes, that could well be the case. On the other hand, it could be that Trump isn't the bomb thrower he was during the campaign. Yes, for an elected president he is still regularly refreshing with his antics, but they really do pale in comparison to what he did during the Republican primaries, retweeting racial crime statistics and even retweeting something that had Heartiste copied in the tweet itself.

Random Dude,

Right. This DACA dance has been pretty impressive. Over the last year, though, his list of accomplishments really are mostly just realizing standard BoomerCon objectives--constitutional conservative on the SCOTUS, tax cuts, saber rattling with the axis of evil, cutting environmental regulations, veterans affairs, etc.

Mark Auld,

Hopefully, yes.

Audacious Epigone said...

Anon,

Touche wrt the drug war. Sessions' rescinding of a guidance order isn't going to change much of anything on the ground, but it got a lot of attention, and it's not attention that will help the Trump administration with 20 yo white guys.

Random Dude on the Internet said...

> Right. This DACA dance has been pretty impressive. Over the last year, though, his list of accomplishments really are mostly just realizing standard BoomerCon objectives--constitutional conservative on the SCOTUS, tax cuts, saber rattling with the axis of evil, cutting environmental regulations, veterans affairs, etc.

I agree. I think some slack should be cut to Trump for his lack of experience and a lot of unfriendly people in Washington expending their full effort in taking him down. However, the man got elected to build a wall on the southern border. Illegal border crossings have shot back up because Mexico and Central America no longer thinks he is serious. This is going to have to be a year of action in comparison to 2017. He does that and his younger voter issue will be addressed. If in 2020 he talks about how he's still going to be building that wall...just not yet, then he's done.

William Foster said...

Obviously, the real question is, who would this hypothetical Republican challenger be? Does Gen Z want Jeb Bush or John Kasich? I think not. They probably want someone like Paul Nehlen, which basically means Trump is the best they're going to get.

Also, it may be lost on Gen Z how incredible it is to have a Republican that actually opposes the media's agenda. They don't realize that a "nice" "agreeable" Republican would quickly capitulate to the leftist media onslaught.

Audacious Epigone said...

Random Dude,

Ann Coulter has, since Trump took office, tweeted every single day about the process of the wall's construction (here).

The most vociferous, ZFG-element of his base--and I suspect that's disproportionately comprised of young white guys--will not accept a wall that is physically 0% complete when Trump is campaigning for a second term.

William Foster,

Yeah, thinking about this brought to mind a conversation that included Mike Enoch and Richard Spencer where they were talking about how many volunteers and event attendees they've run into over the last year or so who say things like "I heard about you six months ago," etc. Those of us who've been in the trenches for decades are conditioned to see the Trump presidency as half full. The greener members of the broad movement--many of whom are Zs--are presumably more likely to see it as half empty.

Joshua Sinistar said...

Gen Z has had the worst fallout from "diversity". Gen X had some breathing space. The all out browning and Anti-White policies are turning Whites further right. The Lincoln Party is done. They are ballyhooing the end of the shutdown, but Schumer got what he wanted. No Chin McCuckold has agreed to bring DACA to a vote. That's it. Democracy is over. I'm no fan of JFK but his quote of "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable." is actually 100% true. The idea that Whites will simply let this become South Africa and be genocided. No Way. South Africa was mostly non-White. America has 40 to 50 million gun owners. Some people say that with modern weapons even that number will be mowed down.

TRY IT. NO REALLY. LETS GET THIS PARTY STARTED. 500,000. That's all it would take. You might not believe it. But Saddam was crushed by just that number. How many will fight for the Swamp? Do you believe the invaders will save that place? We Shall See...

Audacious Epigone said...

Joshua,

Legislative amnesties have suffered a string of defeats in the last couple of decades. I'm cautiously optimistic this one will suffer the same fate. If we get an amnesty a year after an electing a president who explicitly promised to kill it on day one of his presidency, the peaceful options will indeed seem scarce.

Random Dude on the Internet said...

The big factor here is that you're never going to get the House to vote in favor of amnesty. I expect that the Senate will eventually cuck once the Chamber of Commerce donors really start applying pressure, but good luck getting the House to go along with it. It's not going to happen. The House Freedom Caucus, flawed as they are, is what's going to save the country, to be a bit melodramatic. Time is flying by here. The fractiousness will keep ramping up and then DACA ends. A few weeks later and midterm elections are six months away. Good luck getting amnesty then from the House.

The media narratives and cucky statements from McConnell, Ryan, or even Trump should be ignored. Except for the cuckservatives, it is becoming obvious to everyone that this is just political theater so Trump can destroy amnesty while having the blame shift entirely onto the Democrats and turncoat cuckservatives like Miss Lindsey who better be looking for another job when his term is up in 2020.

Audacious Epigone said...

Random Dude,

Great analysis per usual.

"Miss Lindsey", lol.

Saint Louis said...

The NY Times wants to know what to call Generation Zyklon:

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/01/23/style/generation-names.html

Audacious Epigone said...

Saint Louis,

Haha, nice. Thanks, will share.

Uncle Max said...

Because... Survey Monkey.

A poll one chooses to take. A poll usually you sign up for by joining the site and then getting rewards for participation. Of the GenZ age group that has the inclination to do this... it would be probably more disposable income... more likely female... more likely college.. etc.

They don't know what they know, much less have a clue. Let 'em want someone new. It's as meaningful as talking to a 21 year old about mortgages, insurance rates, taxes, .. history. heh. They'll have a opinion... but