Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Stressed and depressed be the low-class lass

In response to GSS data showing a positive correlation between marriage and mental health, commenter Marlborough County writes:
To use Charles Murray's parlance people in Belmont get married, people in Fishtown do not. Look at the CLASS variable. Big difference. Isn't marriage just a proxy for class here?
That's quite reasonable, and he's correct about the link between social class and marriage and thus also between social class and mental health. To the contrary, mo' money does not appear to lead to mo' problems, at least not emotional ones.

But the marriage gap exists independently of social class. The percentages of non-Hispanic white women, by marital status and social class, who report having experienced poor mental health--defined as "stress, depression, and problems with emotions"--in the month prior to being surveyed. All responses are from 2002 onward (N = 3,209):

Rules, structure, and convention benefit those at the bottom of society most. The expansion of bohemian and bacchanalian mores from cosmopolitan elites into the wider popular culture has been devastating for those at the bottom. This, of course, fits perfectly within Murray's framework in Coming Apart.

GSS variables used: MNTLHLTH(0), SEX(2), RACECEN1(1), HISPANIC(1), MARITAL(1)(3,5), CLASS

Sunday, October 15, 2017


Women murdering men is close to three times as common as women murdering other women is:

I stumbled across this while looking for cross-referenced offender and victim data from the latest iteration of the FBI's Uniform Crime Report. The latest year the figures on sex are cross-referenced (that I could find--the report is not intuitively organized so I may be missing it) is 2013 so that's where the data in the preceding table comes from.

I'm mildly surprised by this though I guess I shouldn't be. A lot of these murders are presumably gang-related and the way of men is the way of the gang. When it's a gangsteress taking the shots, most of the targets are men. Whoever is doing the killing, the object of their homicidal intent tends to be a man. Male privilege!

Saturday, October 14, 2017

Childless women have poorest self-reported mental health

The percentages of people, by sex and number of biological children, who report having experienced poor mental health--defined as "stress, depression, and problems with emotions"--in the month prior to being surveyed. To avoid racial confounding, only non-Hispanic whites are considered. All responses are from 2002 onward (N = 6,961):

Whatever the cause and effect may be, if there is one at all, what these results suggest is that having children probably doesn't turn people into nervous, anxious wrecks. By providing purpose, and satisfying the biological imperative, it may even ameliorate mental health issues rather than accentuating them.

Living in accordance with one's nature may in fact be a better formula for human flourishing than trying to perpetually reconfigure, redefine, recalibrate, and even flat out remake that nature. There's a philosophical tradition in the West stretching back to antiquity that suspects as much.

GSS variables used: MNTLHLTH(0), SEX, CHILDS(0)(1)(2)(3-8), RACECEN1(1), HISPANIC(1)

Friday, October 13, 2017

Feminism wins

The percentages of people, by sex and marital status, who report having experienced poor mental health--defined as "stress, depression, and problems with emotions"--in the month prior to being surveyed. To avoid racial confounding, only non-Hispanic whites are considered. All responses are from 2002 onward (N = 6,521):

Eat, anxiety meds, pray, anxiety meds, love.

GSS variables used: MNTLHLTH(0), MARITAL(1)(3,5), SEX, RACECEN1(1), HISPANIC(1)

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

The well is full of virtue

Vox Day, falsely accused of asserting that "intelligence determines virtue", denies it. Jordan Peterson recently denied the same in a podcast with Stefan Molyneux.

Assuming we're talking about the contemporary conception of virtue as ethical behavior (as opposed to the latin virtus, which is closer to what we'd refer to today valor or courage) are they correct?

The GSS includes three questions serving as reasonable first approximations of the contemporary concept of virtue. The following graph shows how respondents, by intelligence buckets as measured through Wordsum scores, fare on these measures. To avoid language fluency issues, only those born outside the US are excluded. To avoid racial confounding, only non-Hispanic whites are included:

No apparent relationship emerges. Each intelligence grouping looks best on one measure, worst on another, and in between on a third. The differences are modest. 

Intelligence is as useful for rationalizing as it is for ratiocination.

GSS variables used: EVSTRAY(1-2), ARREST, TAXCHEAT(1-2), WORDSUM(0-5)(6-7)(8-10), ETHNIC(8,10,11,14,15,18,19,21,24,26), RACECEN1(1), HISPANIC(1), BORN(1)

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

White Privilege: Psychological Edition

Percentages, by race and sex, who report having experienced poor mental health--defined as "stress, depression, and problems with emotions"--in the month prior to being surveyed. All responses are from 2002 onward (N = 9,342):

Contrary to the Narrative about putative low black self-esteem and the emotional burden that comes from doing "X while black", black bodies--especially male ones--tend to suffer less from psychological afflictions than non-whites do. 
Stereotype of blacks as non-neurotic,
carefree isn't a new one (via TWCS)
One might be forgiven for thinking that being weighed down by systemic oppression would be stressful, depressing, and emotionally taxing. Apparently it is not.

To the contrary, gentile white men fare marginally worse than all the groups of oppressed men do. I guess every form of refuge has its price!

Then again, that oppression takes a toll on members of the fairer sex among one particularly oppressed group, Jews (though the Jewish sample is only 170, so it should be viewed cautiously). It seems their intelligence has not come without a cost

No word, parenthetically, on whether or not Amy Alkon has managed to shake that which many a Jewess is unable to avoid:

GSS variables used: MNTLHLTH(0), RACECEN1(1)(2)(4-10), HISPANIC(1)(2-50), RELIG(3)

Sunday, October 08, 2017

Speculating on data is the spice of the quant life

The previous post generated a lot of "correlation does not equal causation" responses on the ping pong ball forum. Jayman is fond of the mantra, and for good reason, but most of the people chanting it are tedious to deal with.

I understand as much, and that all traits are heritable. I could've as easily written that women experiencing "stress, depression, and problems with emotions" are at high-risk for riding the cock carousel instead of the other way around as I actually did write it.

One may influence the other, they could be mutually reinforcing, or they could have nothing to do with one another. It could conceivably even be the case that, in isolation, sleeping around is beneficial for women but it's something the mentally unstable do more of than balanced women do and so the benefit gets buried under the other problems they suffer.

The color commentary here is my best guess punditry. Its mileage will accordingly vary. This is primarily a quant blog. Data is the focus. That data is suggestive, not conclusive. I'm not interested in posting something fit for scientific journal publication. For one, they contain their share of bullshit. Hell, while there are clear patches, much of the fields of sociology and psychology are covered in bullshit.

It's easy to use selective controls to produce intended results. It's why I prefer to look at simple relationships. If I control for other variables, it's limited to those presenting the most obvious potential confounds, like sex and race.

Steve Sailer has mentioned on multiple occasions that he likes using data not gathered for the purpose of answering the question he's asking because it generally avoids the problem of stacking the deck in favor of a preferred outcome. The GSS is perfect for that. There are several hundreds variables to cross-tab.

For sake of argument, assume all traits are perfectly heritable. No voluntary or even involuntary behaviors are capable of modifying underlying traits and tendencies. Extract philosophy entirely. We're still left with subjective experience, and that's where the punditry comes in. If, every day after work, a man comes home and stares at the wall for six hours before going to bed, he will have the same quantifiable outcomes--lifespan, income, personality, health, etc--of other men who do things regular men do.

I guess we could refrain from evaluating wall man in relation to the others, but it feels anti-human to do so. Life is for living. I go "exploring" in the woods with my son not because it's going to make him more resourceful later in life but because it's fun for him and for me and it creates memories we'll treasure as long as we live.

Go a step further and take free will out of the equation. We may not have any. The corollary of that, of course, is that it shouldn't be expected that people assuming correlation and causation are the same will be swayed by arguments about correlation not equaling causation. The world is simply doing what it's going to do and that is that. There is no agency, but there is no way to convince people who think there is agency that we are devoid of it, so stop wasting your time--if that's what your destined to do, or don't, if it's not. Whatever.

That said, the example of smoking seems a devastating relatively recent illustration of how social pressure can strongly modify behavior. The genetic predisposition to smoking in the US population presumably hasn't changed much in the last 50 years, but smoking rates have declined drastically. Religiosity has reliably correlated with fertility for generations, yet religiosity continues to decline in societies where the religious consistently out-breed the irreligious.

Finally, some interaction with the archetype Heartiste has warned will be the downfall of the Western world. I was unaware of her until today, but she's a blue check mark so I assume she's not a troll (her tweets unrelated to celebrating barrenness and the joys of prostituting for free, she seems pretty sensible):

Totally irrelevant!

Sustainable for exactly one generation!

Income opporunity
She could get more no-strings-attached in her prime than I could. Game, set, match!
The world revolves around more than a woman's immediate personal preferences

Saturday, October 07, 2017

Sluts are nuts

The following graph shows percentages of respondents who reported having experienced poor mental health--defined as "stress, depression, and problems with emotions"--in the month prior to being surveyed. Results are broken down by sex and by total number of opposite-sex partners (non-heterosexuals are excluded; all responses are from 2002 onward, when the GSS began querying about mental health; and N = 3,782 for women and 3,475 for men):

Unsurprisingly, being repulsive or invisible to the opposite sex is suboptimal. The ground floor girl is gold. As rides on the cock carousel increase from there, things go downhill. The more men who have ridden her, the worse her neurosis will be. Women who've had over 15 partners are at more than 50% greater risk of poor mental health than women who steadfastly remain tethered to 'the one'.

I mention women in the preceding paragraph because while the trends are technically the same for men and women, the degree of differentiation by partner count is negligible in the case of men while it's staggering in the case of women.

A recent post at the chateau spurred me to take a look at relevant data in the first place. Heartiste nailed what is merely being quantitatively corroborated here:
Every added cock scours a woman’s soul while every added pussy gilds a man’s soul. Bad relationship experiences accumulating over the years can potentially embitter both men and women, but men in my observation, when they bounce back, are more seamlessly able to reconstitute a loving relationship with a new woman minus the emotional baggage of past women who left them with foul memories. In contrast, women who have run through failed relationships tend to dump increasingly heavy loads of baggage on their new men.
Giving away the vadge is akin to giving away citizenship--it feels good in the moment but it creates all kinds of problems down the road. Slut-shame her not only for her own good but also for the good of Western civilization.

GSS variables used: NUMMEN(0)(1)(2-5)(6-15)(16-989), NUMWOMEN(0)(1)(2-5)(6-15)(16-989), SEX(1)(2), MNTLHLTH(0)(1-30)

Thursday, October 05, 2017

Unapologetically rise from the ashes

What if it were possible for both sides of the gun control debate to get what they want?

What if it were possible for some places to restrict the movement of firearms and allow the free movement of undocumented migrants while other places allow for the free movement of firearms and restrict the movement of illegal aliens?

What if it were possible for places where people think diversity is a strength to become more diverse while places where people desire homogeneity to become more homogeneous?

What if it were possible for something other than a uniform set of rules, restrictions, and regulations to apply to 330 million people--people who are disunited linguistically, culturally, ethnically, politically, financially, geographically, morally, racially, and religiously?

It is possible. It's happening across the globe--from Spain to Sudan, from Britain to Kurdistan, from East Timor to, say, some day in the not-so-indefinite future, Texas.

The members of these formerly United States are like a married couple well past the point at which they should've divorced.

The husband leaves the gate open, the dog runs off and before long the couple is yelling back and forth about how stupid it was to get the house in this neighborhood. A psychopath shoots up concertgoers and we're simultaneously screaming about the evils, and apologizing for the merits, of guns, white men, parenting strategies, media sensationalism.

The wife forgets to turn a light off in the closet and before long their yelling back and forth about how she doesn't care about saving for retirement and he doesn't care about anything but money. A subset of athletes refuse to stand for the anthem and we're simultaneously screaming about the evils of and apologizing for the freedom to do so without consequence, of popular entertainment, on what constitutes patriotism.
Resonates with wistful boomers;
stuff of legend for younger Americans

Every incident escalates with such rapidity that it should probably be described as immediacy into something much larger than the incident itself.

Who do Hillary Clinton voters hate more--Donald Trump or Nigel Farage? Who pisses red-staters off more--the Democrat party or the Labour party? Trump and Democrats, the ones with control over their lives, of course.

This nation no longer makes sense. Inertia, economic convenience, and a large enough tax base to run a global empire are the only things holding this carcass of a country together.

How the political dissolution will occur is anyone's guess--probably along currently existing state boundaries, though that needn't necessarily be the case. What seems clear, though, is that it's time--past time--for secession.


Parenthetically, when I had the opportunity to host a certain polymath for a few hours over the summer, I asked if he thought the political dissolution of the US in our lifetimes was a real possibility. A decade ago his answer would have been "no way", but now he thinks it is conceivable (though not necessarily desirable).

The likely mechanism? Another severe economic downturn, exacerbated by the potential of a resultant dollar crisis. There are obvious ways a crash could precipitate dissolution.

There are also less obvious ones. To get out from under the risibly unpayable national debt, for example, a state like Texas could secede, declare the federal debt accumulated under the union it used to be a part of both unconstitutional by the standards of that union and an unjust burden on the republic of Texas, and wash its hands of any obligation on the $20 trillion.

The Cloud People would never allow it! The secession would be brutally suppressed! The optics of Spain's reaction to the Catalon referendum were terrible, even though Catalonia's actions were clearly illegal (while Texas' would not be).

Think the people of Oklahoma would go for the feds marching on Texas? More likely, they'd petition the governor to join their southern neighbor. Hell, think people in Massachusetts would? Nope. Good riddance, they'd say.

Monday, October 02, 2017

Mean Wordsum score by highest degree attained across groups

The following table shows the mean Wordsum score by demographics and by highest completed degree (n = 21,502):

Education will never 'close the gap' because the width of said gap is pretty consistent across differing levels of educational attainment.

We see, for example, that whites have about a full point advantage on blacks at every level of degree completion with the exception of post-graduate degrees, where the advantage is even larger (because a lot of black post-graduates pursue subjects that provide the relatively easily attained credentials they need to do the blackety-blackety-black?)

Even if we grant, for the sake of argument, that there is no ceiling on the percentage of blacks who can earn graduate degrees without pulling the mean Wordsum score for black graduate degree holders down (a dubious assumption), the only conceivable way to narrow the gap would be to push differential rates of educational attainment so that more blacks and fewer whites pursued higher levels of education.

Alternatively, we could focus our collective energies on improving outcomes for everyone, even if those improvements benefit members of different races at similar rates, instead of quixotically trying to bridge the unbridgeable. But that's the sort of strategy only an extremist would advocate.

And don't dare notice that Jews without any college experience have more expansive vocabularies than blacks with post-graduate degrees do!

A few technical notes:

I'll often convert Wordsum scores to IQ estimates but elected not to in this case to emphasize the intractability of The Gap. Even if spending a decade in college doesn't increase the g-factor, shouldn't it at least reliably increase a person's vocabulary? Given the conventional wisdom, shouldn't we expect a black doctorate to have a more expansive vocabulary than a white high school graduate does? Doesn't post-graduate education require a lot more reading than getting a high school diploma does?

Additionally, I've traditionally used the GSS variable EDUC for educational attainment, but DEGREE is better so I'll be using that from now on. Despite having tapped the database on and off for a decade now, I'm still discovering new things contained within it.

There is a fifth degree category, "junior college", not included above because the sample sizes were prohibitively small for Jews and Asians (only 7.8% of all respondents fall into the category), but results are predictably between "high school graduate" and "bachelor degree".

To avoid language fluency issues, results were restricted to respondents born in the US. For contemporary relevance, all results are from the year 2000 onward.

GSS variables used: DEGREE(0)(1)(3)(4), RACECEN1(1)(2)(4-10), HISPANIC(1)(2-99), RELIG(3), BORN(1), YEAR(2000-2016)

Sunday, October 01, 2017

A black is more likely to commit an anti-white hate crime than vice versa

A decade ago I did a series of posts showing, in short, that the "hate crime" designation is a way to get to bizarro world validate The Narrative, with designated victim classes actually looking like victims and designated oppressor classes actually looking like oppressors.

The FBI hasn't yet released data on hate crimes for 2016, so we're looking at 2015 figures here.

Hate crimes made up just 0.07% of all crime in 2015. Like the major media highlighting the 1-in-1,000 story that fits while passing over without comment the hundreds that do not, the hate crime designation allows for a portrayal to be crafted in which Hate appears to be the purview of heterosexual white men even though actual crime is overwhelmingly the purview of Sun People, especially young black men.

Despite the enormous latitude provided, in 2015 a black was still more likely to perpetrate a hate crime of anti-white bias than a white (including Hispanics!) was to perpetrate a hate crimes of anti-black bias*. While 1-in-203,000 whites committed an anti-black hate crime, 1-in-127,000 blacks committed an anti-white hate crime.

When it comes to hate crimes against sexual deviants, the black overrepresentation is even more pronounced. Blacks were 417% as likely to commit an anti-gay/lesbian/bisexual/transgender/gender-non-conforming hate crime as whites were.

That's a lot of punching down on my part, so let's take a swing at the clouds. The following graph shows the percentages of anti-X hate crimes that are hoaxes in which the alleged perpetrator is unidentified:

* Emphasizing as much without pointing out that blacks are correspondingly also more likely to be victims of hate crimes than whites are--something that will always characterize a smaller group vis-a-vis a larger group in a tit-for-tat scenario--is to commit a rhetorical sin of omission of my own. I don't deny it, because the whole hate crime category is bullshit. It exists as a means of running interference on the actual nature of interracial crime in the US, so I don't care.