Thursday, September 14, 2017

Make Amnesty Die Again! #MADA

The 2016 presidential election utterly destroyed the aura of augury he'd enjoyed since 2012, but Nate Silver is learning. Via Steve, one of Silver's recent posts is entitled "Trump's Hardline Immigration Stance Got Him To The White House".

He's come along way from mocking Trump's campaign as a gag on account of it detailing a position on just one issue, immigration.

Silver essentially argues now that while most people are 'moderates' on immigration, a contingent of mostly Republicans are vociferous restrictionists and they scare congress critters away from amnesty whenever it is attempted.

As for the part about restrictionism polling poorly, that's an intended artifact crafted by the wording of the questions asked and the answers permitted. A couple of years ago Reuters-Ipsos conducted a refreshingly straightforward poll about whether all or most illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay or should be deported. The latter won by nearly 20 points overall and by 35 points among whites.

With regards to scaring congress, I couldn't agree more. Join in the terror by contacting your House member here and your senators here.

R-I also maintains a poll querying respondents on which issue from a list of twelve is most important to them. Healthcare and the economy always come out on top with polls like this. With that in mind, the following graph shows the percentages of Democrats, Republicans, independents, Clinton voters, and Trump voters who identify immigration as "the most important problem facing the US today" (n = 57,027):


There is a lot of overlap among Trump voters and Republicans and among Clinton voters and Democrats, of course. Among Democrats who voted for Trump, 10.0% chose immigration as the nation's biggest problem! That's where a lot of his crossover support came form. The issue really did put Trump into the White House.

The above comes to over 8 million Trump voters (current company included) who put the National Question ahead of the economy, healthcare, unemployment, terrorism, war, crime, morality, the environment, education, energy, or any other issue. 

If one in every ten of those voters--800,000-plus, or more than one for every "Dreamer"--demand their congress critters oppose DACA amnesty, it will die a deserved legislative death. Make amnesty die again!

8 comments:

The Z Blog said...

My read on Trump all along has been that he likes chaos. He thrives on it. People who have done deals with him say his team turns every meeting into a free for all. The idea is to get everyone running around and disorganized so he can pick off the opportunities. This is looking like more of the same. The GOP was refusing to work with him, so he creates some mayhem.

What's interesting about all of this is there is no deal he can make with the Democrats. They lack the numbers, but more important, they lack the power to move legislation in the House or the Senate. Trump can cut any deal he likes with the Democrats, but it goes nowhere without Ryan and McConnell agreeing to it.

Trump surely knows this. But, he knows the press is too stupid and too lazy to resist the idea of him cutting a deal with the Democrats. The media is running with a nonsense story, Trump supporters are enraged, calling Washington and frightening every Republicans in the city. Meanwhile, Trump is saying contradictory things to add to the mayhem.

The timing means every Republican doing the Sunday chat shows will be asked about it.

dc.sunsets said...

The best I hope for is that this is NOT decided, and the whole issue remains in limbo until the DJIA reaches its apogee, the 10-year Treasury Note price begins to fall in earnest and the vague fear and outrage of Americans who elected Trump both spreads and becomes a lot less vague.

These are a time of transition. I want to see Big Decisions wait until that transition is nearly complete, and I'm quite certain that the uninvited millions in America will flee back to their homes just ahead of the enraged mob of my neighbors.

As it is, the post-1965 immigration wave and Section 8 have turned most of America (but especially cities above 80,000 or so) into Indian Country, a target rich environment for the path ahead when effigies won't be the only scapegoats hanged.

dc.sunsets said...

I want every HINT of amnesty to look like gun control. Those funding congressional campaigns (The Chamber of Commerce Corporatists) want amnesty, but they'll settle for stalemate. We must hope that congressmen grasp that making noise about something doesn't cost them their seats, but voting that way absolutely does.

Jim Bowery said...

Where's Blade when you need him?

Random Dude on the Internet said...

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SAN_FRANCISCO_MURDER_IMMIGRANT_ACCUSED?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2017-09-15-15-10-28

I know this doctor/engineer is not part of the DACA program but stories like this is what we need to keep pushing. The media would like us to think that every immigrant is hard working and just wants to find a minimum wage job doing things that lazy white Americans refuse to do but stories like the one above is a far more accurate portrayal: a group of lazy and violent people who couldn't hack it in their native country so they come up here and make life hell for society because we treat them with kid gloves.

Audacious Epigone said...

Z,

I recall during the campaign people like Milo saying they liked Trump because he was the chaos candidate. That's not exactly what they had in mind--they were referring to what he'd do to the political system in general--but they're related.

From Trump I'd obviously prefer a rescinding as promised (200+ days late) and a united front with Jeff Sessions. That said, it's not hard to see why he's playing it the way he is. The political class is walking into a political minefield here. Trump is demanding the congressional legions go first so he can follow behind them and not step on the same spots that blow them to bits.

The most beautifully chaotic thing that could possibly come out of this (admittedly a long shot but not entirely inconceivable): Trump cuts a DACA amnesty deal with Dems. Some number of cucks get on board with it so that it has enough votes to pass while still seeing a majority of Republicans vote against it. Trump then pulls the carpet out from under the Dems and cucks by vetoing the bill. The traitorous cucks who voted with the Dems get massacred in the 2018 primaries.

dc.sunsets,

It's not decided. No way Paul Ryan has the auctoritas to dictate what the majority of Republicans do. Lacking that, there is no certainty, as Z Man points out. McConnell is probably in a better spot in terms of getting people in line.

Jim,

Hell yes.

Random Dude,

Exactly. He was a dreamer. That was his American Dream. Many dreamers have similar dreams. Trump, remember Kate Steinle? Remember Grant Ronnenbeck? Here it is, happening again, under your watch, and you're busy fighting with your base to keep the illegal aliens here?!

Hey, the progs make a habit of abusing the hell out of words. We should to.

Random Dude on the Internet said...

It needs to be emphasized that any compromise with respect to DACA is amnesty. Pure and simple. Anyone who thinks that we can let in some of the "good ones" misses the fact that there will be a ninth circuit judge who will declare that to be unconstitutional and that the United States has no right to determine who we can let into the country. So by passing any kind of legislation that lets in "the good ones" is the exploit that they can finally use to legalize open borders.

I know I'm preaching to the choir here but there are a lot of blind Trump followers who think that making a deal on DACA is some kind of masterstroke. It isn't. I still remain optimistic that DACA isn't going to pass at all because there are enough Republicans who are just smart enough to know what happened with Eric Cantor. As much as they want to enact a globalist agenda, they'd rather keep their seats in Congress instead.

Audacious Epigone said...

Random Dude,

Could not agree more.