Saturday, August 12, 2017

Many young BernieBros defected to Trump

As it turns out, the Hispanic Heritage Foundation also conducted a massive nationwide poll during the primaries in 2016.

Looking at non-Hispanic whites (n = 57,196), Sanders obliterates Clinton among students who support a Democrat,84%-16% in a two-way race. Trump gets three times the support Cruz--who runs a distant second among Republicans--does.

Where this gets interesting is in the transition from the primaries to the general election, specifically with regards to what those Sanders supporters did once he was out. We're doing algebra with two separate variables on each side of the equation, so we have to make an assumption about one of them.
The results of a few of those possible assumptions follow.

If we assume students supporting a non-Trump Republican broke 25% for Clinton, 50% for Trump, and 25% either sitting out or voting third-party and 25% of Sanders supporters sitting out or voting third-party, we get Trump beating Clinton by an astounding 76%-24% among whites who supported Sanders in the primary.

If we assume students supporting a non-Trump Republican broke 10% for Clinton, 80% for Trump, and 10% either sitting out or voting third-party and 10% of Sanders supporters sitting out or voting third-party, we still get Trump beating Clinton 60%-40% among whites who supported Sanders in the primary.

Even if we assume every single non-Trump Republican backed Trump, we get Sanders supporters splitting almost exactly evenly between Trump and Clinton in the general election assuming corresponding full general election participation among Sanders supporters.

If we take it to a risible extreme and assume that every single non-Trump Republican backed Trump while half the Sanders supporters sat out the general election, we end up with a sizable minority of those former Sanders supporters who do vote in the general backing Trump, with Clinton winning them 70%-30% in this scenario.

No matter what assumptions are made, a staggering percentage of Sanders supporters end up going to Trump. Many of us, myself included, hoped we'd see more of that from the actual electorate but assumed--accurately, as it turned out--that most adults are too stuck in the partisan loyalty trap to crossover to someone with the wrong letter next to his name.

The left-right/Democrat-Republican/liberal-conservative paradigm ("boomer politics") is on the way out. A cosmopolitan-identitarian/globalist-localist paradigm is the best bet to replace it. That transition will occur as the boomers die off and generation Z comes of age.

Alternatively--or more likely, simultaneously--it's hard to overstate just how bad a candidate Hillary Clinton was, especially in the eyes of adolescents.

On one hand, an uncharismatic, scolding lesbian schoolmarm with the most unfashionable sartorial signature imaginable who spends half her time tsk-tsking about the forbidden things Trump has said and done.

On the other, a god-emperor catching nuclear bombs fired at him from the Vatican, the White House, Hollywood, and Brussels, mocking those who deployed them, and then throwing them back to detonate on the places from whence they came, while grabbing HBs by the pussy during his down time.

11 comments:

pithom said...

Some counties (most notably in parts of Ohio, Arkansas and Indiana, as well more obvious ones in closed primary states such as in Oklahoma and West Virginia) actually had more Democratic primary votes in 2016 than they had general election votes for Hillary Clinton in November.

Audacious Epigone said...

Pithom,

Indeed. Monroe County in Ohio is for whatever reason one I remember and refer to when incredulity comes up. Democrat primary and general election results for Ohio in 2016.

Mil-Tech Bard said...

AE said --

>>Monroe County in Ohio is for whatever reason one I remember and refer to when incredulity comes up. Democrat primary and general election results for Ohio in 2016.

Wowza.

2,300ish Dems voted in their competitive Presidential primary total, but only 1,600ish voted Dem in the general election?!?

Even assuming 1/2 of the swing was Bernie supporters staying home...that represents a 15% shift of hard core Democratic primary voters to Trump.

That is hard core Democratic primary voting supporter melt down in a Presidential year.

Given the racial make up of Monroe that represents demographic doom for National Party Democrats anywhere but majority-minority urban areas in the Mid-West.

The "Blue Wall" is now flying the Red Trump banner.

Feryl said...

They're going to keep pushing harder and harder for a full Merkel treatment of every white country, in light of how few white normies want the full cultural and racial Marxist platter. The blathering of elite white liberals and the demographic pig-in-the-python represent by the large and ultra liberal 1988-1995 born cohort are causing many to lose focus of just how unappealing the Dem's current ideology of Neo-liberal econ. policies and batshit crazy cultural liberalism is. And even Millennials were alienated by economic Marxist candidates being pushed aside by the corrupt and archaic Dem leadership.

Audacious Epigone said...

Mil-Tech Bard,

Yep, the template is there, staring us right in the face.

Feryl,

You think the net of this, in 2018, is going to be a fairly good showing for cuck Republicans, then? That's my best guess, uninspiring as it is.

Corvinus said...

Mil-Tech Bard--"Even assuming 1/2 of the swing was Bernie supporters staying home...that represents a 15% shift of hard core Democratic primary voters to Trump."

Because Bernie and Trump are anti-establishment, and Shillary represented the status quo. Those same voters put their faith in Obama for 8 years. They felted duped, so they went to Trump. Considering the difficulties he is having running the nation, and the numerous investigations down the pike, those same voters will likely have remorse, and vote for a more conventional politician in 2020. If Trump runs in 2020, and wins, and in 2024 a similar candidate emerges and wins, then we can say definitively that the "Blue Wall will fly the Trump and his acolytes banner".

Feryl--"The blathering of elite white liberals and the demographic pig-in-the-python represent by the large and ultra liberal 1988-1995 born cohort are causing many to lose focus of just how unappealing the Dem's current ideology of Neo-liberal econ."

Gen X'ers favor national health care, civil rights, and gay marriage. They probably will support immigration restrictions, but no to mass expulsions of their non-white friends. When it comes to political correctness, yes, they are sick and tired of cultural appropriations and safe spaces, and will fight back in some way. But expecting a 180 turn to the Alt Right, with all the fixings, that is a pipe dream considering the divisions with this political and ideological movement.

Feryl said...

Corvinus:

People were extremely hostile towards gays in the 70's and 80's. Gen X-ers included (60's and early 70's births are still more homophobic than later X-ers who went to college in the gay 90's).

If we can start to get things back on track, the elites will stop normalizing perversion. We've got to destroy neo-liberal economics and cultural Marxism. Encouraging wholesome attitudes is hardly alt-Right or novel. It's only been in the last 20-25 years that status brownie points are gained from promoting so much sick crap.

Once cocooning declines in the 2020's, we're going to see more success at calling out nonsense, like how in the 80's and early 90's it was so much more common to hear complaints about affirmative action, welfare queens, dopey judges, and the like from the populace. Vigilante beatdowns were more common back then, too. But that was also when we were at the beginning of a period of elite corruption, so elites didn't always listen to Joe Six-pack back then. They're doing even less listening now (witness the grandstanding over tranny bathrooms and muh Russia, when the vast majority of people couldn't care less). That's got to change. If it doesn't change, then it's off to the darkest period our country has seen since the Civil War.

Feryl said...

You think the net of this, in 2018, is going to be a fairly good showing for cuck Republicans, then? That's my best guess, uninspiring as it is.

Yeah, sure. The Dems and the MSM keep over hyping every race, breathlessly anticipating imminent victory to spur turnout then being disappointed by the results in many districts, which they claim are "unfairly" drawn to favor the GOP, when in fact ethnic and ideological gerrymandering is at least partially rooted in Dem ethnic pandering to shut blacks up.

Trump's support and demographics being what they are, the Dems just don't have enough politically engaged swpls and dark skins to counter the many GOP voters who show up because they realize that the Dems are desperately pulling out all the stops to get more wins. Since there's always going to be only a select number of elite areas by definition, and for the time being they can only get so many politically active non-whites to infiltrate more non-elite white areas and vote in them, the Dems have a huge geographic handicap right now. A dense concentration of swpls in campus areas and larger urban areas, with much of the diversity in or near those areas. And Texas and a great deal of Florida remain fairly conservative, in spite of demographic changes, thus why Puerto Ricans ringers were parachuted into Florida a year or two before the 2016 election.

Oh, and as ever, young people don't vote. Period. Unless it's for the brotha in chief. It's extremely difficult to inspire young people to vote at all, at any time, let alone for a boring-ass mid-term. Lately it looks like they've done better, on account of the MSM hyping up every mid-term as a chance to punch Drumpf. They've tried to bury the lingering resentment over Bernie as much as possible (media blackout of the DNC lawsuit); yet I've got a hunch that they're just bottling it up, not dissipating it, and eventually it's going to blow up in their faces. Most people don't forget that sense of betrayal, especially young people who are easily disillusioned and offended.

You're right about the cucks, though. It's a double edged sword. The dopey Dems get embarrassed again and again, but the GOP will take the wrong lesson from success (that people were voting more for GOP cucks rather than against the odious Dems). As Agnostic has lamented, Trump since early May has stopped promoting outsider GOP candidates, in spite of these candidates often explicitly endorsing Trump. Then again, to be charitable, perhaps he's just overwhelmed by the work and stress he's under and figures that the drama and controversy caused by supporting outsiders just isn't worth the trouble. Which would be a shame because there's strength in numbers, and continuing with same old same old cucks isn't going to do much to give him more supporters and allies.

Feryl said...

I shoulda said hyping up the post-Trump special elections to weak effect, and the mid-terms to come. How much bullshit can the MSM and it's apologists spew in the push to get a slew of Dems across the finish line in first? We'll just have to wait and see. And once the mid-terms pass, then it's onto the push for 2020 and more Vanity Fair layouts of the (presumably younger and more attractive this time) DNC favored candidate.

Audacious Epigone said...

Corvinus,

It would be interesting to see a similar poll of approval levels of Trump among high school students. Would it be higher than the ~40% that shows up in official polling? My guess is that it would be higher, on the order of 50%.

Feryl,

Someone inside the administration needs to put together a Trump mid-term voter guide. It's high risk but also high reward, and Trump's base is capable of both being mobilized and being uniquely positioned to swing some mid-term races since a lot of them are the types of people who don't usually vote in mid-terms.

Mil-Tech Bard said...

>> those same voters will likely have remorse, and vote for a more conventional politician in 2020.

I disagree.

Pres. Trump is governing for the white working class one energy jobs and those who are pissed at Trump are reinforcing their 2016 cultural vote for change choice by doubling down on anti-white cultural issues.

The two most economically successful states in terms of economy since Trump was sworn in as President are Texas and West Virginia.

Lower gasoline prices are a huge tax cut type effect on the economy as a whole, save in places like California that put that price cut into more taxes.