Tuesday, August 01, 2017

Gen Z is the West's last great hope!

In a post discussing the potential generation Z holds, a poll of said generational cohort by the Hispanic Heritage Foundation, a non-profit DC outfit "that works to increase the number of Latina and Latino leaders in society", found Trump crushing Clinton among white high school students (n = 16,275*). The poll was conducted in October of 2016, a month before the election, and nearly all the participants were too young to actually vote.

The following graph shows the results alongside those derived from Reuters-Ipsos polling for other generational cohorts in a two-way race. The R-I figures are from those aged 18-34 (n = 9,740), aged 35-49 (n = 9,087), aged 50-64 (n = 10,137), and aged 65+ (n = 6,600), roughly corresponding to millennials, Xers, baby boomers, and silents, respectively. The age ranges don't match the generational cohorts exactly but it's as close as R-I allows us to get. The results for Gen Z show how they reported they would've voted rather than how they actually voted, as most were too young to do so:


This is incredible, almost literally so. It does however mesh with what I saw last weekend and other observations made of late. Z-Man points out that while there were lots of event attendees who could barely pass as legal adults, the protesters were largely comprised of "extremely ugly old women, wearing shirts with feminist slogans." He continues:
I was standing in front of the big glass windows watching the Antifa loonies, when I turned and looked at the young AmRen guys taking pics and selfies, laughing and enjoying themselves. On one side of the glass were grotesquely out of shape people in grubby clothes, smoking and gesticulating. On the other were young men in suits, well groomed and composed. It was one of those times when you can stand on the timeline of your life and see the past and the future at the same time.
Maybe meme warfare and the radioactive lameness of the wicked witch explains some of this away, and it won't be replicable in the future. Gen Z whites were mixed on approval of Obama (37% disapproved, 31% approved, 32% had no opinion). Even if Trump's advantage over Clinton is half of what's shown above, though, it portends a seismic shift in the orientation of the next generation of whites.

Julian Langness thinks millennials will have to save the West. My money is on the next generation, the one with its back against the wall.

Parenthetically, the poll found the expected strong advantage for Clinton among non-whites. She beat Trump 7-to-1 among blacks, 3-to-1 among Hispanics, and 3-to-2 among Asians. The battle lines are being drawn.

Thanks to Sid for pointing to the Hispanic Heritage poll.

* The methodology is tough to nail down with confidence. The major report findings show a sample of 50,000 for all races. The link to details on methodology lead to an interactive map with a reported total sample of 83,298, of which 45,954 are white. To arrive at 16,275 I took the percentage of non-Hispanic whites from 83,298/45,954 figures and multiplied it by the percentage, 59%, of high school white students voting for either Trump or Clinton.

19 comments:

Feryl said...

To be fair to Millennials, the GOP did a lot of asinine things in the 90's and especially 2000's to alienate them. The bible bashing, muh free market, the Bushes and their shitty wars, etc. All the while inequality grew, PC grew, diversity got worse, etc.

Anonymous said...

This is HUGE. Weeks ago I spent a couple of hours looking for race x age voting information. I thought it would take me a couple of minutes as the information must be readily available. I couldn't find it. Is there a reason for this? Qualitatively, what is your feel for the data. Is it valid?

Thank you.

Anonymous said...

The smell test isn't working. The differential based on an arbitrary cutoff (millennial to z) is too big. This is reinforced by the Clinton trend increasing from Silent to Millennial). Thoughts?

Halvorson said...

I don't know about other states, but you can get school level data on Minnesota's mock high school elections here:

http://www.sos.state.mn.us/elections-voting/get-involved/students-vote-results/

Trump lost Minnesota by 1.5% in the real election, but only .29 percent among high school students. Minnesota public schools are only about 70% white, so this is definitely compatible with the idea that that young whites are more right wing than their elders.

I can't use fancy sliders to adjust for ethnicity here, so I'll just use the 19th century method of looking at bellwether high schools that are almost entirely white.

Alexandria High school is 94% white, located in a county where Trump won 64.4% of the real vote. He won 69.7% percent of the (two-way) 774 high school votes.

Maple Lake Secondary is 96% white. Trump won the county with 62.2%, the school's 297 students with 82.2%.

New Prague Senior High is 95.6% white. Trump won the county(ies) with 57.25%, the school's 525 students with 71.2%.

Forest Lake Senior High is 91.7% white. County went to Hillary with 46.5% of the vote, Trump wins 68.1% of the 626 high school kids.

Lakeville North is 87.4% white, county went for Hillary 47.7%. Trump wins the 790 high schoolers with 58.9%.

The most hilarious thing in the spreadsheet is the elementary school results. Trump wins 50.9 to 26.9 (!) among the 10,000 elementary school kids. Even Mexican and Black kids love Trump.

Which maybe suggests that part of the appeal here has nothing to do with ideology, but with the perception that the loose, relaxed Donald is not the type of person who would let some uptight schoolmarm boss him around.

Audacious Epigone said...

Feryl,

Fairness is overrated. Or it's a luxury of good times, anyway. And we're heading out of good times.

Anon,

I'm embarrassed to have not looked at this in more detail earlier. I've had plenty of real life indications that a generational shift is occurring but I lazily attributed it to skewed anecdotal samples.

Anon,

As noted, it's incredible, almost literally so. Yet see the subsequent comment with more apparent confirmation.

If Gen Z in Minnesota--which is less white than Minnesota as a whole--is voting *more* pro-Trump than the state as a whole is, that's huge. If Gen Z was as 'rightist' as boomers, that would be staggering given the tendency for people to move to the right as they age. If it is more so, that presages an impending change in the zeitgeist.

Maybe we call Gen Z the PewDiePie generation.

Halvorson,

Great work, thanks for doing that.

chris said...

I don't think gen Z is more conservative just because their back is against the wall. Conservatives are outbreeding liberals in every generation since birth control and abortion became readily available. It is about time we started seeing some effects.

Audacious Epigone said...

Chris,

We'd think so. Millennials are the mostly the children of boomers, Zyklons the children of Xers, so maybe.

jjbees said...

This is now the 2nd most important graph in the world after Sailer's graph of the African population boom out to 2100.

Imagine a world where progressive cat-ladies birth control and masters degree themselves out of existence, and every one of us is a shitlord– And it is REAL. The future is bright! I love this!

The maxim that "If it can't go on forever, it won't" is true, we are seeing it This is consequence! This is the fruits of all their degeneracy, that just as they have finally won control everywhere, the leftist ceases to exist in a blink of the eye. "Who?" is a question our grandchildren will be asking, aghast that such losers ever had such power.

Feryl said...

Steve Bannon knows that a change is in the air.....that can't be wished away....that will leave our world/society a much different place than it once was. It's up to us to make it a better place. But that requires acknowledging mutual mistakes and holding ourselves and each other to accountability.

Judging from the continuing massive levels of corruption, incompetence, and arrogance among the upper echelons of both parties and their Western counterparts, we're not getting that much closer to a smooth and generally beneficial transition to a better era. Have you read Cernovich lately? Neocon whore McMaster is jettisoning the good guys one after another. Trump may be getting further and further entangled into outdated and moronic foreign policy ideas and personnel, and there's nothing that most Americans detest more than the neo-cons. If they struck a bargain of "we'll give you some stuff (The Wall, immigration cut backs, trade reform) in exchange for for the continuing stench of the neo-cons wafting from the cabinet", that wasn't a deal worth making. Trump, come hell or high water, should've stuck to his foreign policy guns which hit a lot targets on the campaign trail. What is the deep state going to do? Impeach him? Risk a civil war and alienating millions from both parties for the rest of their lives?

For the GOP to stand tall, they've got to 86 the pro-corporate/anti-labor ideology that's gotten musty after 40 years (yes, some of the trade/immigration reform is a start but they've still got a lot of ways to go). And they've got to destroy the last vestiges of the neo-cons; that won't come easy for several reasons: it's perceived as "anti-military" (anti-military industrial complex) which'll hurt the GOP in the Sun-belt (where many bases are and where many people have a military background) and the Bos-Wash corridor (where military elites are ensconced and still quite respected). What also makes it harder is that it requires the GOP to admit that the reigning ideology of several generations was a mistake. They keep sticking to it to save face and their careers. This is the lack of accountability thing: most on the right (certainly, elite righties) can't bring themselves to trash the stupid decisions of so many "experts" and military leaders. A great deal of Trump's Rust belt voters are politically diffident and feel no qualms about tipping the sacred cows of either side. Staunch Lefties can't accept that Cultural Marxism has descended into madness, while staunch Righties are in denial about their favorite institution (the military) being run by clowns.

What we've also got to grasp is that the only thing that really spooked the establishment is Trump's history of tearing into our recent foreign policy, calling it the disaster that it is. The elites and their toadies have been desperately trying to prop up the neo-cons for ages, and they feared that Trump would be the one to put a stop to their BS.

Feryl said...

Let's not forget that to a big extent, we're still in the Trump-as-blank-slate stage. With just half a year in the books, a lot still seems theoretically possible. But.....Bannon/Sessions acted like kids in a candy store the first couple months (the travel ban happened, and no doubt other actions would've gotten the green light if the travel ban hadn't been immediately attacked by various states and the courts), and Trump extended visible support to candidates who fit his agenda. So far so good. Hiring freeze in the state department, tamping down on neo-con wet dreams. Then....Late April/Early May. More generic/less subversive tweets, the Syrian missile strike (which even Putin assumed to be an attempt to appease the warmongers rather than any kind of menacing and belligerent action) which garnered Trump his only positive press coverage, hmmmm. The Polish shindig, which irked liberals but should've spooked his base more (possibly an early sign of a US/Baltic alliance against Russia).

And let's not get started on the lack of message discipline/leaks within the admin.... Various personnel contradicting Trump's platform, each other, and even themselves on many big issues. Very little effective ability to rein in the Russian conspiracy horse shit that major politicians and media figures have been cawing about for months on end.

It might sound crazy, but....What difference does it really make who we vote for, how we align (generationally, geographically, whatever) if what passes for our current leadership is not interesting in reversing every terrible trend of the last 70 years? We failed ourselves in the civil war era, and Boomers and X-ers are in danger of dropping the ball again. Both parties right now are in the habit of simply bitching about the other side, instead of letting their own faults be examined. Such as it goes when quaint concepts like accountability, leadership, and rule of law no longer apply.

Millennial-wise, who da fuq developed brand loyalty to the GOP when the Bush clown family managed to get two (not one, but two!) of themselves into the white house in the 90's and 2000's? Saying that the Dems are worse isn't the most persuasive argument when the GOP basically cheered the destruction of vast swathes of the non-coastal Northeastern quadrant of the US from the late 70's-'til Trump. After Eisenhower, the GOP produced one, count it, one president truly respected by most white proles (Reagan), and that includes Trump so far. Trump better put up a big fight for us if he wants join Eisenhower and Reagan..

Feryl said...

In short, we can't fool ourselves that "our" guys are necessarily getting the job done. We can't fall into the childish partisanship that allows us to rationalize what "our" team happens to be doing at the moment. They haven't done anywhere near enough for us to fully trust them yet. and the thrill of ostensibly owning the throne and frustrating the party out of power shouldn't blind us to the forces still lurking in our midst, ready to produce a dagger at any moment and thrust it into our unprotected backs.

Cerny knows what he's doing, he knows who are real friends are, and the last several days have not been kind to them. The timing of the immigration announcement and the personnel over haul can't be coincidental; the Deep State lets Trump play to his immigration strengths and fulfill that part of his platform, while McMaster begins to throw out those who care more about Americans than they do about the CIA.

At the very least, McMaster has to go. Period. I've no doubt that Bannon/Miller/Trump hate his guts, but they haven't worked up the courage to run him off yet. Will they ever?

Pangur said...

"It might sound crazy, but....What difference does it really make who we vote for, how we align (generationally, geographically, whatever) if what passes for our current leadership is not interesting in reversing every terrible trend of the last 70 years?"

"Why bother trying?" cucked the Cuck.

Rightist defeatism is a long-ingrained habit which has to be crushed. If you cannot figure out that electing Trump is better than electing Hillary, it's time to stop poasting.

Audacious Epigone said...

jjbees,

These kids are mocking those cat ladies and what Jack Donovan calls "the new church ladies", the SJWs.

Feryl,

Politics is downstream of culture. Young whites on the right are the most supportive demographic group in the country when it comes to secession. They don't trust any of the deep state institutions at all. The Trump message is a winner, and it'll be an even bigger winner in a decade than it is now. More polished, professional politicians will pick it up and run with it in the future. The major media, including Cuckservative Inc, have been revealed as paper tigers. The landscape has changed.

If Trump serves as a transitional figure who puts some meaningful restrictionist measures in place--can you imagine a president in the last 50 years who'd support the Cotton- bill?--and the symbolism of a big, beautiful wall, it'll be a victory and an indication we're moving in the right direction.

Pangur,

Right. If there are any black pills in your medicine cabinet, throw them out. Work smarter and harder. Use game to get a good woman and make babies with her. Keep yourself in shape physically, mentally, and psychologically. Apologize for nothing and yield to no one. Don't forget your family tree is full of people who have done less with more. Quit crying and start climbing the ladder.

Feryl said...

"If Trump serves as a transitional figure who puts some meaningful restrictionist measures in place--can you imagine a president in the last 50 years who'd support the Cotton- bill?--and the symbolism of a big, beautiful wall, it'll be a victory and an indication we're moving in the right direction. "

Trump isn't playing down to the abysmally low level of recent or current competition, and that's great but lets not get carried away. The Western countries are demographically fubard due to the overwhelming compulsion to beat Hitler's corpse into dust. What will the future hold? We can't wait for a generation billed as ass kickers to save the day 30-40 years down the road (btw, Strauss and Howe thought that Gen X-ers would lead the charge for nationalism, but that hasn't happened in America). If current negative trends aren't reversed pretty soon (namely, criminalizing of ethnic nationalism), it's going to get increasingly difficult to ever get anywhere near what America was pre-1990.

And the performance so far on health care has been brutally awful (Trump is well aware of obvious remedies, but corporate America still suppresses them).

We can't let our guard down. One of the things that's going on, that really bugs me, is the generational sniping. That happened in the Civil War era, too. In other crisis periods, what typically happened is that the Boomer type generation found a way to positively focus their passion, while the Gen X type generation developed a new found sense of morale and duty. Both generations led a Millennial type generation to victory.

Meanwhile, in this crisis period, Boomers are still brash crusaders who crusade more for themselves than others, while X-ers are still detached from any drive to save a world that doesn't seem worth saving. This has to change, and it won't if the older generations can't bond together over a sense of shared responsibility and accountability.

Feryl said...

"Rightist defeatism is a long-ingrained habit which has to be crushed. If you cannot figure out that electing Trump is better than electing Hillary, it's time to stop poasting. "

I'm not on the Right. I don't believe in post-1970 political ideology , in which the right claims that sucking off corporate America is wholesome while the left believes that sexual deviancy takes precedence over coal miner safety.

I'd have voted for Nader in 2000 had I been of age. I voted for Trump this time. I can't frikkin stand what's happened to us (meaning either side) under Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Obama. I damn well know that HIllary aimed to continue that and I realize that in the short-term Trump is much better; however, if we can't implement and maintain populist measures (isolationism/detente, low immigration, tariffs on foreign goods, junking affirmative action, restoring freedom of association/covenants, restoring sex/drug/religious taboos) soon, then Trump will prove to be a brief respite from the onslaught. Kinda like how Reagan briefly brought sane attitudes regarding sex and drugs back in style, even among kids.

Audacious Epigone said...

Feryl,

There are reasons to be optimistic. Reagan signed the disastrous 1986 amnesty into law. Carter, Ford, Nixon, Johnson, Kennedy--nothing, or worse than nothing. Clintons, Bushes, and Obamas all made things worse. Trump is doing something, something from the executive for the first time since the nation-wrecking 1965 Hart Celler act. I understand your concerns. We shouldn't lose sight of the big picture. Everything--everything--is downstream from immigration.

Random Dude on the Internet said...

> I don't think gen Z is more conservative just because their back is against the wall. Conservatives are outbreeding liberals in every generation since birth control and abortion became readily available. It is about time we started seeing some effects.

I believe we need to rethink what "conservatism" means. I believe we're moving away from liberalism vs. conservatism and more towards nationalism vs. globalism. Most of what Boomer Cuckservatism ascribes to is globalism. It's why you see some of the GOPe leaving the party to be an independent. It's why losers like the Bushes and Joe Scarborough talk a good game about leaving the party.

Nationalism of course is going involve some degree of liberalism. If we're going to be nationalists, then the race to the bottom in terms of wages is over, and is why the MUH TAX CUTS are being reprioritized in favor of serious immigration reform. Stephen Miller talked about this while he was BTFO'ing Glenn Thrush and Jim Acosta. Of course, normies never really cared about the inheritance tax or the merits of having capital gains taxes at 15% vs. 20%.

The "true conservatives" never really paid attention to it even though Washington conservative think tanks sadly based their existence on those useless details. They want good paying jobs and structure for their families. It's why so many of them were Democrats until in recent years when poz-drenched neoliberalism took over the labor unionism that used to be the backbone of the Democratic party. Democrats are too far down the road of being the nonwhite/antiwhite party to reverse course, leaving a huge swath of voters that can be tapped into. Sure, you might have to pay 5 cents more for an apple but you'll know it was picked with real American labor. Seems worth it to me but we'll see how things play out.

Corvinus said...

"On the other were young men in suits, well groomed and composed. It was one of those times when you can stand on the timeline of your life and see the past and the future at the same time."

Other than surprising given it is a conference where there is specific decorum and code of conduct.

"Even if Trump's advantage over Clinton is half of what's shown above, though, it portends a seismic shift in the orientation of the next generation of whites."

No. She is a known bitch. He is a known asshat. Two historically flawed candidates. Trump won because those whites who had voted for Obama for eight years cast their ballot for Trump because he was other than Hillary.

Regarding white millennials, they are having fewer babies, have less homeownership, and are in large numbers favor diversity, homosexuality, and gay marriage. And all it takes is a social media push to further expose what Alt Right leaders like Brett Stevens and Mark Citadel desire--a return to an absolute monarchy that brutally crushes dissent, fiercely opposes modernity, and pervasively undermines individual liberty.

In the end, white people will make their own decisions regarding race and culture.

CJ said...

This shift is maybe less drastic than the chart indicates. Romney ran ahead of Obama 51-44 with white voters aged 18-29.

Link: http://www.people-press.org/2012/11/26/young-voters-supported-obama-less-but-may-have-mattered-more/