Friday, May 19, 2017

Beyond TFR

The CIA world factbook recently added a field listing of the mean age of women at first birth for several countries. In Chad and Niger, most women are getting pregnant before they turn 18. Sexual relationships that violate laws on statutory rape in the US are commonplace in sub-Saharan Africa, where the age of first birth ranges from the late teens to the early twenties. Most Greek women, in contrast, don't a child until after their 31st birthdays.

The graph Steve Sailer dubs the world's most important:


African fertility rates are much higher than fertility rates in the West, but the population of Deep Darkness would leave Europe's and North America's in the dust even if all three continents had the same total fertility rates.

Here's a (relatively) simple if extreme example to help grasp the magnitude of the difference differential ages of mothers' births have on total population sizes.

We start with a Ebony from Eritrea and Blanca from Belgium. The total fertility rates in both countries are 3.0, and both women and their descendants are representative of their countries in terms of reproduction.

In anticipation of the objection that countries where younger births are the norm are also countries where earlier deaths are the norm, life expectancy in this example is 50 in Eritrea and 100 in Belgium. Both women and their descendants are also representative of their countries in terms of life expectancy.

At age 20, Ebony has her three kids. Twenty years on, Blanca has her three children at age 40 (or Ebony at 19, 20, and 21 and Blanca at 39, 40, and 41 if you insist!), just when Ebony's children are having three children of their own.

Two decades later, the late Ebony is a great-grandmother 27 times over. Blanca is the mother of three adult children.

Another twenty years go by and Ebony, whose children have now passed on, is a great-great-grandmother 81 times over, while Blanca is an octogenarian with nine grandchildren of her own.

Twenty years beyond that--we're a century into our example now--and Ebony, who just posthumously welcomed 243 great-great-great-grandchildren into the world, has 351 living direct descendants. Blanca, who just passed away last month, has 39.

Although both women and their descendants have identical total fertility rates, Ebony has an order of magnitude more living descendants than Blanca does!

11 comments:

Sid said...

What's notable too is that black Americans have been able to slowly grow their share of the U.S. population. In 1950 they comprised roughly 10% of the population, and today they're somewhere around 12-13%. In 2050 it's estimated they'll likely make up somewhere around 14-15%.

Those numbers don't seem consequential on their own. Increasing your share of the population from around 10% to 15% over a century seems trivial. But compare how hard the white percentage of the population is projected to fall during that same time period, and indeed already has, with how blacks have been doing. Compare how blacks have been able to expand on their share of the population even while Hispanics make up an ever increasing part of the pie.

Blacks, therefore, have been making considerable demographic ground: I bet HBD bloggers in an alternate reality where the 1965 immigration act never passed are fretting about how blacks are rapidly expanding their share of the U.S. population.

chris said...

With unsupportable pensions coming due and decreasing share of whites to generate wealth and hence taxes, the welfare state will contract and hopefully the environment will better select for white birth rates, (i.e. long term oriented reproduction.)

Joshua Sinistar said...

Yeah, Anti-White rape fantasies from our frenemies at Globull U just love to fantasize about massive black population bombs. But reality keeps getting in the way of their delusions. I hear another famine is happening. I suppose Bonehead Bono and all the washed up pop stars are gonna start singing again. Do they know its Christmas in Afreaka? Do they know its not The Stone Age anymore? Maybe those Chinese Entrepreneurs building airports and seaports can help them out. With a rational sustainable approach like Tiananmen Square or Tibet maybe?

Anonymous said...

Sid - a combination of generational factors, geography, and government policy caused the black birth rate to soar in the 60's-early 90's. By the 1960's, the black population had spread to a great deal of the urban NE, Midwest, and even California. Then LBJ's "Great" Society handsomely rewarded lazy black single moms and cad black dads. Meanwhile, Boomer and early Gen X blacks thoughtlessly popped out kids while crises of crime and drugs swept black ghettos in the 60's-early 90's.

In the mid 90's, Gen X-er blacks stopped having as many kids due to both Slick Willie's long overdue welfare reforms (which GOP'ers couldn't pull-off in the 80's due to accusations of racism and anti-feminism) and a general "slowing down" of the culture (declining crime, boring pop music, people having less friends and people going out less often) making people act more responsibly. People started having less casual sex, declining rates of smoking and drug use, even less littering compared to the Devil-may-care culture of the late 60's-80's.

https://abagond.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/birthrate-for-black-and-white-unmarried-women.jpg

It does seem like the early 90's spike in both black births and the crack epidemic gave greater urgency to welfare reform. As those of us born before oh, 1987, probably remember, the late 80's and early-mid 90's had tons of horror stories about black kids being shot up in drive-by shootings and born with birth defects attributed to crack.

The "good news" is a double edged sword. On the one hand, Millennial blacks are almost (in comparison to the past) as disinterested in having kids under trying circumstances as Millennial whites are. On the other hand, this only further reminds us that whites need economic and cultural signals to be more enthusiastic about having kids.

The white booms of the 50's-early-mid 60's, and late 80's-1990's were associated with two things: (relative) economic security, and an over-all stabilization of society in comparison to surrounding eras. Whites get spooked by their brethren being in too much danger/unrest or poverty, which makes them reluctant to want to a raise a child who they think might grow up in a world of pain and deprivation. The economic slow-down of the late 60's-early 80's and Vietnam gave adults reasons to not kids, while post-9/11 economic and foreign policy entanglements have really alarmed potential white parents. The Silent generation was a small generation due to the Depression and WW2 giving people concern.

It seems that younger black generations are assimilating closer to white childbearing norms, but if the Dems goose another period of welfare generosity and future generations of blacks don't listen to elders who warn them of how terrible growing up in a poor or high-crime era ghetto is, the black birth rate might soar again.

Audacious Epigone said...

Sid,

How much simpler things would be. That alternative universe would present some problems, but they'd be manageable--just about anything is in a population that is 75%+ non-Hispanic white.

Chris,

Or does a long period of economic malaise accentuate the Idiocracy effect ("not with the market the way it is")?

Joshua,

If the Western world's collective plan is to rely on a natural culling--while ostensibly fighting against that natural culling with aid and allowing immigration--we're done. A country that is 20%+ Latin American Hispanic isn't going to have much time for Africa, I suppose.

Anon,

Dr. Feryl, I presume?

bdoran said...

War is natural culling too.

Feryl said...

Whoops, didn't use teh Google username.

" I suppose Bonehead Bono and all the washed up pop stars are gonna start singing again. Do they know its Christmas in Afreaka?"

They act(ed?) like poverty/hunger arose from like, nowhere, or worse, from Western "oppression".

The reality is that equatorial jungle/desert climes have a small(ish) human carrying capacity, especially if the native "savage" populations are incapable of developing sophisticated agriculture/animal husbandry/fishing operations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution#Brazil.27s_agricultural_revolution

The funny thing is how white people are both the best at agriculture and happen to live in the world's best regions for it (the breadbaskets of the Midwest and Central Europe).

This ill-fated revolution in production allowed a lot of excess which could then be exported to other regions. Also, 2nd tier soils/climates could better support the native population. Basically, we've disrupted the biological feedback system inherent to every region by giving 1st/2nd World food stocks and medicine to equatorial peoples, who, before the advent of modern transport, would've been kept in line by food production limitations and disease inherent to hot regions. Jungle villagers and desert nomads now crowd in half-assed approximations of civilization, breeding out of control, creating super bugs, many awaiting food and supplies and not even attempting to be self-sufficient which given the environment's limitations isn't even possible to some extent.

Much like how "allowing" blacks to congregate in the US urban North has been an unmitigated disaster with no end in sight (as soon as LBJ tried to lift up blacks, we began juggling a lot of HR balls frantically and we can't envision ever dropping them), so too has "helping" the 3rd World created an insoluble crisis. And in either case, whites are blamed for much of the trouble! Nevermind the fact that 1st world IQs among equatorial peoples would've obviated the ongoing support of whites in the first place..

Feryl said...

BTW, doncha love the mythology of blacks going to the North in search of factory jobs which were then yanked from these areas? If they had the potential (which according to liberals they do) to rise above urban serfs, why didn't blacks do so? Liberals desperately strive to equate the misfortunes of white proles with the troubles of genetic 3rd worlders, but it doesn't add up since whites always can to some degree figure out better things to do than commit crimes, spread STDs, and whine about conspiracies to keep you down.

That sad white nigger lament Hillbilly Elegy is an obvious attempt to pin embarrassing pathologies onto a benighted group of unfashionable whites in Appalachia. Yet even the lowliest whites can maintain a degree of dignity, pride, and order. And as some conservatives are quick to point out, clannish feuds and hair-trigger tempers are still a step above the retarded chaos that becomes unavoidable with large and dense populations of Sub-Saharan blacks. Also worth noting is that these hillbillies are just that, hillbillies. They don't desert their roots en masse to pile into the 'hood and await welfare or jobs that are magically created by ubermensch in government/industry like blacks do.

Are there videos of Appalachian whites "swarming" together to attack a non-white person for no good reason? Are there videos of black Friday stampedes in Appalachia? Do Appalachian whites openly cheer on co-ethnics who are hardened sociopaths, like blacks did with O.J. and countless other violent and criminal blacks?

In the face of decades of neglect and disrespect, many prole whites are turning their ill-will inward. They don't feel like acting like whiny entitled bitches like blacks do. But in a way, it's a bad thing because at this point they would be justified in agitating against elites, which is what we need to send a message that things have got to change. A lot of individual whites, especially those inclined to not act like nerdy liberals, find it beneath their dignity to challenge the system since that would be an acknowledgment that you're a loser (or a more privileged champion of such people) who couldn't tolerate the competition (or couldn't tolerate whites beneath you losing so much).

Audacious Epigone said...

Feryl,

There is something to the Black Rednecks, White Liberals observation that Thomas Sowell turned into a book, but the we're looking at a Venn diagram, not a two-dimensional spectrum. Blacks of West African descent in the US have more in common with Appalachian whites than they do with SWPLs on most metrics, but not all and the differences still dwarf the similarities.

Durandel Almiras said...

Tough call for the emotionally altruistic. End foreign aide and white support in Africa and starve them with famine now, or wait until there are so many of them that they break the system (like in S. Africa) and then have 8 times as many die of famine.

I keep thinking of the first Mass Effect game and the sterilizing virus placed on the Krogan. A designed virus could do what many lack the will to do.

Audacious Epigone said...

Durandel Almiras,

That's what many still think AIDS was deliberately intended to be and to do.