Saturday, March 25, 2017

A couple more polling stragglers

- Multiple people have balked at Trump's apparent Mormon support. This comment at Heartiste's is illustrative:
45.5% of Utahns voted for Trump, but you’re claiming that 72% of Mormons voted for Trump? Sorry, but those results don’t line up. There’s definitely some sampling error in there.
Keep in mind the results were in the context of a two-way race. Evan McMullin, the Mormon who was futilely pushed by cuckservatives in a ridiculously far-fetched attempt to send the election to the House of representatives, sucked up a lot of Mormon support. He got 21.5% of the vote in Utah. If we back this out and just compare Trump vs Hillary, we see that Trump crushed her, 62.4%-37.6%.

One-third of Utah's population isn't Mormon. Given that Mormons are the most reliably Republican demographic in the country, it's probably reasonable to assume that Utah's non-Mormon population was less likely to vote for Trump than its Mormons were. If we estimate non-Mormons in Utah went 50/50 for Trump/Hillary, we get a Mormon Utahan result of 68.6%-31.4% in Trump's favor, close to the Reuters-Ipsos result of 71.6%-28.4% among Mormons nationwide.

While Utah is majority-Mormon, the majority of America's Mormons do not live in Utah. Of the 6.5 million Mormons in the US, 2 million live in Utah. Since most McMullin voters, if forced to choose between Trump and Hillary likely would have gone with Trump, it's reasonable to assume that relative to Mormons in Utah, non-Utahan Mormons in states where McMullin wasn't on the the ballot--like California, which has the second-largest population of Mormons in the country after Utah--were more likely to vote for Trump than for Hillary.

So if Mormons outside of Utah went for Trump 73%-27% in a two-way contest with Hillary--which seems quite plausible--we'd be exactly in line with the R-I result.

- Similarly, there have been assertions that the marriage gap is actually just a disguised age gap. Again, from a commenter at Heartiste's:
If you had broken all your groups down by age, you’d find that young white women are more likely to be single and that single white manginas who voted for thecunt were…young!
Age is positively correlated with the likelihood of being married, but the marriage gap is present within age cohorts (at least among women). Among whites under 35, Trump's support among whites breaks down as follows:


Young single white men were marginally more supportive of Trump than young married white men were, though the difference is within the margin of error. The difference between young single and young married white women, however, is yuge.

Now let's look at whites aged 35-65 (beyond 65 we start running into widow confounding):


Here, too, the marriage gap is more of a chasm among women.

We might want to refine our focus on the marriage gap to an emphasis on the female marriage gap in particular.

Note too that age isn't much of a factor here. Younger and older single white women vote pretty much the same, as do younger and older married white women, etc. Among whites, it's mostly single women on one side and everyone else on the other.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

What's the problem with these single white women?

Can we revoke women's suffrage already before western civ is completely dust?

Audacious Epigone said...

Discouraging them from voting by doing what we can to turn them off to the CultMarx left is probably the best approach. Women conform--those without attachments to the zeitgeist, those with attachments to those attachments (namely their husbands).

Anonymous said...

Time to scrap the 19th Amendment.

Random Dude on the Internet said...

> What's the problem with these single white women?

Single white women don't think very far ahead or at all really. They only care about the here and now, which is why Trump's message didn't resonate with them. Blue collar jobs are icky, immigration reform is mean, repealing Obamacare means that their free birth control might be taken away, fixing all the problems in the Middle East just needs a ~woman's touch~, and holding Mexico accountable is mean. Seriously talk to the average single white woman and this really is about the extent of the thought that they've applied to their political views.

When a woman gets married, part of the (implicit) deal is that there will be children. Now she has to think about a world where she's bringing life into it. Suddenly it can't be just about muh tingles, she has to think about a world where her children can succeed. All of a sudden, those mean and awful things become good and necessary to make sure her (hopefully) two or three kids can thrive. This is why women become a lot more conservative.

What a coincidence that the cultmarx narrative is that marriage and children are evil and oppressive.

Anonymous said...

Exit polling showed that white women voted for Trump 53% over 43% for Clinton. The same polling found that White college graduates (37% of voters) voted for Trump 49% over 45% for Clinton.
Conclusion: White voters, both female and college graduates went for Trump over Clinton! Dumb, angry men are not the primary ones responsible for Trump’s election.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/president

Audacious Epigone said...

Random Dude,

Core America really needs to start putting its own interests ahead of abstract principles. As you point out, the CultMarxists do this expertly.

Anon,

The Narrative was that white women betrayed "the sisterhood" by (modestly) preferring Trump.

The real story is that single white women betrayed white America and almost got away with it.

David Pittelli said...

Interesting analysis, but when you break down age into just two (or even several) categories, there is still some conflation of the marriage effect and the age effect. (The average age of all single women between 18 and 35 is lower than the average age of all married women between 18 and 35.) You'd need raw data with each voter's age and marital status to perform a multiple linear regression or some other type of scatter-graph/visual analysis to really separate marriage and age effects.