Wednesday, December 07, 2016

Trump's net favorability on track to surpass Obama's by inauguration day

Trump's shattering expectations.

I got on the Trump Train back in July 2015 for three primary reasons:

1) Immigration -- his candidacy was a referendum on a wall.

2) Political correctness -- any other political figure who'd said one-tenth of the things he did would've been toast. Instead of groveling, he doubled down. Rather than shedding support, his level of support increased.

3) Messianic democracy -- he offered a reorientation of Republican foreign policy from neocon interventionism to America First nationalism to such an extent that the 2016 election was one in which the Democrat was the hawk and the Republican was the relative dove.

Trump's positions on trade and corporate taxation were encouraging to hear but I figured they would at best amount to small effects on the margins.

Was I ever wrong about that. The news of foreign investment heading into the US and of manufacturing already here staying here as a direct consequence of Trump's election continues daily--Ford (hyperbole aside), Carrier, Trans-Lux, SoftBank, to name the biggest and most conspicuous ones so far.

There is nothing more valuable than access to the US market. That can be leveraged to the hilt. Wal-Mart didn't become the world's largest brick-and-mortar retailer by focusing on reciprocity and equitability with its suppliers. That sort of principled cuckery is the reason the phrase "nice guys finish last" exists.

Parenthetically, don't think I've lost my grounding here. Despite the recent surge, the markets are headed for a serious downturn in the relatively near future, on the order of a double-digit percentage decline over the course of a single year. That was going to happen irrespective of who was elected. I'd put it at 5% before Trump takes office, 80% during his first-term, 10% between '20-'24, and 5% that it'll happen after that.

Anyway, Trump's net favorability has gone from -29.2 to +5.2 in a mere six weeks. He's now within striking distance of Obama. The markets need to open an over/under on whether Trump will be more popular than Obama by inauguration day:


Trump is now far more popular among whites (+21.6) than Obama (-8.7) is, and Trump has closed his own NAM gaps considerably, from -50 to -16 among Hispanics and from -85.8 to -64.0 among blacks.

10 comments:

FlyingHighin2016 said...

DJT will immolate, self destruct, if he falls for the poison apple of media approval.
He can never forget that his enemy #1 is the media-edu complex. The Dems are a 2ndry extension of that foe, not the primary.

Black Death said...

Amen. I hope Trump is too smart to fall into the Democrat-MSM-approval trap. The last two Republican presidents are living proof as to where that leads. Bush I, who was always viewed with suspicion by the hard-core Right, made a solemn promise to his backers - "read my lips - no new taxes!" Of course, he made a deal with the devil (the Democrats and MSM) and broke this promise, causing a nasty recession. His backers stayed home on election day, and he lost to Bill Clinton in 1992.

Bush II was no better. He inherited a nation at peace and a budget in surplus when he took office but quickly began to forget the voters who elected him. He initiated big-spending government programs (Medicare Part D, No Child Left Behind, Homelans Security/TSA), started an expensive, useless war in Iraq and pumped up the housing bubble. Bush II did get reelected, but the chickens came home to roost with the GOP disaster in 2008.

Here's some good advice for Trump - worth what you pay for it - "Dance with the one that brung you." Remember who put you in office (and brought along a lot of other Republicans with you - this has been a great year for the GOP). The Republicans have an historic opportunity right now - control of the White House and both Houses of Congress. Blow it now, and you may never get another chance.

Audacious Epigone said...

FlyingHigh2016,

I don't think he will. He mentioned at one of the debates that he is too trusting but that once he's burned, he never forgets. He's embarrassed the media on multiple occasions already, and not just during the campaign when he did so regularly. Even as president elect he's gone places without giving them a heads-up and he gave the famous dressing down with a whole host of them assembled together. He's playing with them wrt to his appointments, too--the markets are all over the place as to who he is going to pick for which position. Seems like he's having fun toying with them.

Black Death,

Amen right back at you.

FlyingHighin2016 said...

Today's pick for LaborSec is v bad. Same ol crony capitalism, wage suppression, & enriching of the plutocracy that DJT campaigned against. There is also potential for massive sell out at DHS if certain GOPe gain Kelly's ear. The only way to salvage situation is for Kobach to be running show behind scenes at DHS with Kelly as ornamental leader. Pudzer needs to be made powerless - he is symbolic of the last 30 yrs of DC rot. Make no mistake: if DJT doesn't thicken up his thin skin & stop his media approval seeking, his base will abandon him with a speed & fury that will make the past year's events seem as consequential as a super bowl halftime show.

Audacious Epigone said...

FlyingHighin2016,

It's not as satisfying as Kobach, but John Kelly is an encouraging pick for DHS. Here he is a couple of years ago--when it did him no favors with the Obama administration--pointing out the porous mess that is our southern border.

I may have to eat it for being cautiously optimistic, but Trump is going to do some conversion work of his own.

TWS said...

Double digit correction? 10%, 50%? How big a drop are we looking at?

Audacious Epigone said...

TWS,

Akin to 2008-2009 is my best guess.

Sigma K said...

I do not always comment but you really do impressive work.

Thanks.

I am citing you everywhere as a news source. I tell the plebs that you got more correct about the election than the lying media. Then post your links. Then they shut up.

Life = simple.

Dan said...

In thee current year, Obama's brother Malik Obama is a Trump loving, pepe meming, based twitter shitlord. He says he learned to twitter from Chuck C. Johnson. I will be sad to see 2016 end.

Audacious Epigone said...

Sigma K,

Thanks. Your life is impressive. We're all contributing in our own ways.

Dan,

Yes, the first few times I saw his twitter I assumed it was an alt-rightist troll account but it's legitimate and hilarious. 2016 is one of those watershed years. Whatever the future holds, things will never be the same.