Monday, November 07, 2016

More on why Trump should win Florida

A Quinnipiac poll that ran from 10/27-11/1 reported the following:



At the time the poll was taken, slightly more registered Republicans had voted than registered Democrats. The poll shows Trump doing marginally better with Republicans than Hillary is doing with Democrats, and it shows Trump leading among independents.

More Republicans than Democrats have voted. More independents say they'll vote for Trump than for Hillary, yet she has a six point lead in early voting?

The only way this adds up is if early voting Republicans (and independents) are especially supportive of Hillary relative to Republican and independent Floridians as a whole.

It's possible, but it seems improbable. Unless we're talking about an army of hundreds of thousands of Erick Eriksons waddling in early, the presumption should be that Republicans who are toying with the idea of crossing party lines to vote for the witch are going to wait until the last minute to turncoat. They're not going to do so weeks in advance when new information keeps coming on a daily basis. The ones who are voting early are the ones who are the ones without a question in their minds as to who they're going to vote for.

On the other hand, there are numerous reports of large numbers of Hispanics among the in-person early voters, so the fix could already be in.

As the time for conjecture wraps up, I'll offer my electoral college prediction, albeit a prediction with far less confidence than those made throughout the primary season:


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Reading the entrails more audaciously still, we see that Pennsylvania will be closer than the polls have indicated over the last couple of months, and credible evidence for voter fraud out of Philadelphia will cast a heavy cloud of skepticism over the results.

15 comments:

IHTG said...

Unless we're talking about an army of hundreds of thousands of Erick Eriksons waddling in early

It's Florida. Anti-Trump Cuban Marco Rubio fans? Look at the Senate polls, they almost surely exist.

Alex7 said...

I know its very early, but the midnight voting in three small New Hampshire towns (Dixville Notch, Hart's Location, Millsfield) looks promising for Trump.

Trump 32
Clinton 25
Johnson 4

2012
Obama 33
Romney 30
Others 2

2014 Senate
Shaheen 27
Brown 23

The Z Blog said...

If Trump wins ME2, then he'll win NH.

I think the 269-tie is well within reach.

IHTG said...

ME2 has been much more favorable to Trump than NH in polls.

Dan said...

Regarding that Fla poll -- I think the only way that they turn those split results (R's and D's favor their own party, I's favor Trump) into a Hillary lead is if they assumed Dems dominated early voting. Basically, I think they mixed the 2012 early voting turnout with the 2016 poll answers. Now we know that didn't happen.

That said, I am pessimistic about today overall for a few reasons.
(1) I expect D's to come out harder today now that they see things have tightened up. I see Google is pushing GOTV hard today, including on Android devices. I expect black pastors in all the inner city churches were all GOTV on Sunday.
(2) The 'exoneration' of Hillary, a boost for her, is not reflected in most polls.
(3) The pope made comments that favor Hillary
(4) The establishment machine generally, from the media to celebrities to Obama are all in full gear. They are not called the establishment for nothing.
(5) Cheating, both hard and soft. Soft is 60,000 felons in VA being pardoned for voting purposes. I don't know how the hell so many 600 person precincts in Philly go 600-0, but it doesn't seem plausible at all. The number of black Republicans is not high but certainly not zero. I bet other things happen.

If Trump loses, and I hope he doesn't, I really hope he says something like this:

Hillary will never be President of the United States. She will only be president of her constituents. Democrats in the last decade have shown consistently that they will not take a balanced approach, and will not represent America as a whole. They will only represent favored groups and not the rest of us. Until recently, American presidents, although they came from one party, were the president of both sides of America and worked to represent both sides. Hillary and the new Democrats will not do that. For that reason, Hillary will not truly be an American President.

That statement would be a challenge. You are only the president of half the country. The challenge is to try to be everyone's President.

I'm hoping (and praying) for a Brexit result.

Dan said...

On the flip side, enthusiasm is with Trump -- just look at the rallies -- and that could make the difference. In particular, I hope those die-hard Trumpers are fighting for Trump in their families and circles. Also, maybe there is a phenomenon where people aren't telling pollsters they are for Trump. Brexit happened. My state of Maryland has a Republican governor. Maybe the final Trump ad spending will make a difference.


Cicatrizatic said...

If the Drudge exit polls are somewhat accurate, it's going to be really close. There's no scenario where Michigan and Colorado are too close to call and yet Clinton wins comfortably. More likely that the exit polls are overestimating Clinton than Trump.

Audacious Epigone said...

IHTG,

The pro-Rubio anti-Trump voters aren't coming from Republicans according to the same poll, though, because Trump is winning Reps 88-7, even better than Hillary is doing with Dems. I assume there are some Dems who aren't thrilled with Hillary who are okay supporting her by splitting their ballots by also voting for Rubio.

ME-2 is about 4 points more favorable to Trump than NH in the polls, but basically within the MOE.

Dan,

We'll see how much the establishment matters. Trump's 2-minute closing ad was fantastic, the perfect mental retort to the big last-minute establishment push.

Cicatrizatic said...

Trump wins FL

He is leading in OH and NC

He is even leading in MI and VA at the moment.

Media narrative shattered. This is close so far, but strongly trending in Trump's direction.

Audacious Epigone said...

PredictIt has Trump favored now.

Trump wins Florida, going to win NC -- Burr, who Trump was outpolling, has already been called the winner.

Along the Ohio River in Ohio is All Along the Trump Tower.

It's going to come down to Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Nate Silver has Trump favored, too.

Dan said...

LOL -- boom!

I had a vicious fight with my parents a few days ago. They wanted to go cucky and support neither candidate even though they have always been Republican. I more or less made it clear that they'd have to find a new son if they did that. We are on great terms again, but that is something I will not have, even though we live in Maryland which isn't a swing state.

I imagine real men all across America laid down the law with their families like I did.

Audacious Epigone said...

Hell yes indeed.

I converted my entire nuclear family and, more difficult still, my wife, who always votes third-party.

It was millions of yous and mes doing this across the country that made the difference.

Dan said...

I am bleak pessimist. See my post from this morning. It wouldn't be the Dark Enlightenment after all if it was optimistic.

But this is really over. He's done it. And he is running up the score.

Dan said...

As of 1:07 AM CNN gives Trump 238 electoral votes. Funny how behind they are.

Dan said...

Here comes Erick Mc.Erick von Erick Erickson, totally on the Trump Train now.

http://theresurgent.com/wrong-wrong-totally-wrong-time-to-reset/