Trump has irretrievably squandered a priceless opportunity to register and mobilize the Missing 47 Million White Blue Collar people for a “mess of pottage” from GOPe agents.The thought is that without additional white voters, Trump will have to do about 3 points better than Romney did among whites in 2012. Trump will have to get 62% of white support to win the popular vote.
While granting clemency to Paul Ryan after the primaries only to have the cuck later stab him 23 times looks like a mistake, that may not be the only path to a Trump victory (assuming minimal electoral fraud--an admittedly big and unwarranted assumption).
The Reuters-Ipsos' daily tracking poll has justifiably come under fire for rigging its surveys in Hillary's favor. It has oversampled Democrats and undersampled independents and to a lesser extent Republicans. It has also oversampled the well-educated and undersampled the modestly-educated. Its utility is an open question.
That said, it allows users to create and toggle cross-tabs across a whole slew of variables. Having done so, here's a reason to be cautiously optimistic: Turnout.
The turnout rate, by race, among eligible voters in 2012:
White -- 64%
Black -- 67%
Hispanic -- 48%
The percentages of registered voters who self-identify as "likely general election voters" in November in Reuters-Ipsos' daily tracking poll (running from 9/15 through 10/15), by race:
White -- 77%
Black -- 65%
Hispanic -- 37%
Comparing turnout among eligible voters and among registered voters isn't an apples-to-apples comparison. The pool of eligible voters is larger than the pool of registered voters, as all citizens aged 18 or older are eligible voters (excluding incarcerated felons) but not all eligible voters are registered to vote.
Consequently, we should expect the 2016 percentages to be higher across the board than the 2012 percentages are. While that is the case for whites, it's not so for blacks or Hispanics.
Whites appear to be fired up about heading to the polls next month. Non-whites, not so much. Lest we forget what the electoral map would look like if only whites could vote:
Rather than the story being how Trump lost because he was unable to mobilize enough politically apathetic white voters, it could instead be how Hillary lost because she was woefully unable to match the electoral enthusiasm among NAMs that Obama generated in the last two elections. While overall turnout was down 6% in 2016 compared to 2008, black turnout fell 11%, or twice as much as non-black turnout did (there isn't sufficient exit polling data to calculate Hispanic turnout).
A modest suggestion for Trump: Drop the "what do you have to lose?" pitch to blacks. Hillary's using it repeatedly to prod uninterested blacks into taking an interest in the campaign. Pointing out that things have been bad for blacks will cause blacks to reflexively feel like Obama is being attacked, and black racial solidarity will translate that into an urge to make the effort to vote for Hillary on behalf of Obama. Follow the Derb's advice instead and just don't do race.