Saturday, October 15, 2016

Reuters-Ipsos polling suggests black and Hispanic (but not white) turnout will be down from 2012

On multiple occasions an anonymous commenter has pointed out the Trump campaign's missed opportunity with regards to registering unregistered white voters over the last year:
Trump has irretrievably squandered a priceless opportunity to register and mobilize the Missing 47 Million White Blue Collar people for a “mess of pottage” from GOPe agents.
The thought is that without additional white voters, Trump will have to do about 3 points better than Romney did among whites in 2012. Trump will have to get 62% of white support to win the popular vote.

While granting clemency to Paul Ryan after the primaries only to have the cuck later stab him 23 times looks like a mistake, that may not be the only path to a Trump victory (assuming minimal electoral fraud--an admittedly big and unwarranted assumption).

The Reuters-Ipsos' daily tracking poll has justifiably come under fire for rigging its surveys in Hillary's favor. It has oversampled Democrats and undersampled independents and to a lesser extent Republicans. It has also oversampled the well-educated and undersampled the modestly-educated. Its utility is an open question.

That said, it allows users to create and toggle cross-tabs across a whole slew of variables. Having done so, here's a reason to be cautiously optimistic: Turnout.

The turnout rate, by race, among eligible voters in 2012:

White -- 64%
Black -- 67%
Hispanic -- 48%

The percentages of registered voters who self-identify as "likely general election voters" in November in Reuters-Ipsos' daily tracking poll (running from 9/15 through 10/15), by race:

White -- 77%
Black -- 65%
Hispanic -- 37%

Comparing turnout among eligible voters and among registered voters isn't an apples-to-apples comparison. The pool of eligible voters is larger than the pool of registered voters, as all citizens aged 18 or older are eligible voters (excluding incarcerated felons) but not all eligible voters are registered to vote.

Consequently, we should expect the 2016 percentages to be higher across the board than the 2012 percentages are. While that is the case for whites, it's not so for blacks or Hispanics.

Whites appear to be fired up about heading to the polls next month. Non-whites, not so much. Lest we forget what the electoral map would look like if only whites could vote:

Rather than the story being how Trump lost because he was unable to mobilize enough politically apathetic white voters, it could instead be how Hillary lost because she was woefully unable to match the electoral enthusiasm among NAMs that Obama generated in the last two elections. While overall turnout was down 6% in 2016 compared to 2008, black turnout fell 11%, or twice as much as non-black turnout did (there isn't sufficient exit polling data to calculate Hispanic turnout).

A modest suggestion for Trump: Drop the "what do you have to lose?" pitch to blacks. Hillary's using it repeatedly to prod uninterested blacks into taking an interest in the campaign. Pointing out that things have been bad for blacks will cause blacks to reflexively feel like Obama is being attacked, and black racial solidarity will translate that into an urge to make the effort to vote for Hillary on behalf of Obama. Follow the Derb's advice instead and just don't do race.


authenticbenkurtz said...

To be fair to Trump, I think his addressing black voters briefly in his speeches is more about making certain white voters more comfortable with him. Yes, he's politically incorrect and blunt-talking, but all those Washington Lying Post smears of him being actively Racist must be false if he's trying to appeal to black voters in what counts as a genuine way, for him.

I think there are plenty of white voters who are sympathetic to his message, annoyed with shrill political correctness, but don't want to think of themselves as hardcore Racists (or supporting the same).

That's what this is about; I'm sure the Trump campaign, the GOP rank and file, and various sympathetic groups will not be going door-to-door on election day in black neighborhoods, trying to drum up turnout.

Jim Mayer said...

Jeremiah said-Pray your land prospers, if it does, you shall also prosper'(29:7)

This election lots of people are saying both candidates are 'equally' bad. They aren't.
There is one who intends to do good for our country, and one who intends it harm.

Pretend we didn't know their pasts, & we Only knew what each would do if elected. We know what HC wants because we have her private speeches, expressing desires for a 'Borderless Hemispheric Common Market.' - In other words, an end to a sovereign America.

Folks - The end of America!
How would one measure the tears in heaven from all who died for this country?
How do you begin to calculate the blood spilled over 240yrs of history for the US?
She wants to create a super-state combining N&S America!
Who'd stop her? Our current crop of yellow-bellied RINOs?

The US is the Cadillac of the West Hemis. Everyone else is a 10 year-old Yugo. The Yugo drivers would Love the wealth re-distribution. But what happens to Your standard of living if we combine economies? When HC says she cares about you & all the micro-issues, she means it only until you vote her in. We learned that with Obama. Leftists do what They want when in power. Proof? Did they care about public opinion when passing Obacare? Public opinion re gender/bathrooms? Care about the public's low priority re Climate Change?

Leftists have contempt for the Constitution, & go around it with 'ExecOrders'. They say it's a living document, making it malleable instead of inflexible. Not so! It isn't play-dough. But a Leftist SupCrt won't agree, & will rubber-stamp the Left's agenda, & will let unconst'l Exec-orders stand. We'll lose 1st & 2nd amends & many other freedoms. The next Prez may have 3-4 SC appoints. If HC makes those choices, America dies.

MrT, warts & all, wants America 1st. Period. John 8:7 says, 'Let him who is without sin cast the 1st stone.' Trump is a sinner, as are we all, but he won't dismantle the very nation that enriched him. - They are not equal.

Audacious Epigone said...

Ben Kurtz,

Good point. It might also be aimed at depressing non-white turnout, for which it may have the opposite effect, but there's nothing non-deplorable whites hate and fear more than being thought of as waaaaycist, so providing them some rhetorical cover makes sense.


Jill Stein was right when she pointed out that among the big two, Trump is the peace candidate. A vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote for the military-industrial complex--more interventionism, more war, more dead bodies.

Did you notice when Hillary was asked about her supreme court nomination in the 2nd debate, she never mentioned the Constitution once in her two-minute answer about the next justice's qualifications?

The Z Blog said...

Six months ago I reverse engineered Clinton's polling:

What I find remarkable is just how steady her polling has been over the last year. She remains locked into a range of 43-to-45 percent no matter what happens in the race. Trump has these wild swings, often based on nothing more than some silly hysteria in the press.

One theory here is skulduggery. The pressure on polling shops to present good news to their customers is probably enormous. Just look at what happened to credit agencies in the run up to the mortgage crash. The Reuters poll is a pretty good example of working toward a preferred result.

My hunch is it is something different. Clinton has a solid base of support in the low 40's. She could be seen on video strangling a baby and that support will not erode much. That support is also her ceiling. There's 55% that will either vote for Trump, throw away their vote on a third party or stay home. Since some portion of that vote has often stayed home, it falls outside the standard models.

All that said, there is a Brexit vibe to this election. I've often thought that the ruling class hysteria in the final weeks of the Brexit vote tipped a lot of voters to the Leave side.

Audacious Epigone said...


I remember that post well.

The R-I poll also oversamples whites and undersamples blacks and Hispanics, and there is a lot of variance on these fronts and partisan affiliation and educational attainment (and probably others, too, if we examined closely enough).

Mil-Tech Bard said...

>>All that said, there is a Brexit vibe to this election. I've often thought that the ruling class hysteria in the final weeks of the Brexit vote tipped a lot of voters to the Leave side.

Negative campaigning has historically reduced the turn out of the least commited.

Going nuclear on Trump favors the candidate with in the race with the most committed voters...which is Trump.

This is why Hillary is the worst candidate imaginable for Democrats...and the GOpe.

A really populist White turn ut that remembers its enemies down ballot will play hob with the McCain's and Ryan's relections.

Anonymous said...


All good points but it's time to look past Nov 8th. Come what may it's a new world on Nov 9th. We were never going to talk our way out of this - and that includes voting.

Now do we want to survive and want our posterity to survive?

Then we fight.

We. Men. Or not. If not we cease to exist - probably much faster than the comfortable 2040-2070 windows bandied about. If we go down without fighting we'll never rise again [and frankly don't deserve to continue].

Slavery isn't a viable option even for otherwise prospective slave-owners as machines or Mexican's are far cheaper and less risky than us.

So it's Victory or Night. No Dawn save Victory - this is past the election which just chooses the legitimate Commander in Chief.


Audacious Epigone said...

Mil-Tech Bard,

Hispanics are especially susceptible to low commitment. We'll have to hope it's enough to grab Colorado, Nevada, and (maybe) Florida.


Keep prodding. Things are moving in your direction. Voter/electoral fraud will show us if there is a reservoir of fight left in middle America.

chris said...

Trump might be capturing more of the black vote as well.

Audacious Epigone said...


Maybe, though that may be more of a reason to be skeptical of Rasmussen's good news than anything. R-I shows Trump's support among blacks bumping along between 2%-6% and the LAT tracking poll isn't any different, with blacks going for Clinton 88%-4%. I'll gladly be proven wrong, though!

Random Dude on the Internet said...

Latest daybreak poll has Trump capturing 38.7% of the hispanics. Romney only got 27% of the hispanic vote in 2012. Dubya received about 40% of the hispanic vote in 2000. While I suspect this is just a brief spike, for as much talk as there is about Trump being a racist, he seems to do better with minorities than McCain and Romney. He should probably end up somewhere around 1/3 of the vote, which combined with a higher white turnout, will likely secure a good Trump victory. All along I wanted a landslide but if he gets over 300 electoral votes, I will be happy. I still think that is definitely possible.

Anonymous said...


Most of what you write is spot on, but Trump’s failure to employ ground game to motivate and mobilize 25-50% of those 47 Million Eligible White Voters cannot be justified. His reliance upon mainstream media jiu-jitsu, social media tweets on twatter, and rallies – while important – is akin to entering a fist fight with one arm immobilized.

Instead, Trump felt that appealing to a small, fickle contingent of American Africans and "Hispanics" to the exclusion of 47 Million Eligible White Voters was the rational route to follow.

His failure to motivate and mobilize 47 Million Eligible White Voters is due to poor judgment or is linked to the mess of pottage sold him by the GOPe – the same clowns who sabotaged his campaign from the beginning and recently stabbed him in the back.

Outraged snowflakes (male and female) may decide this election.

Let us hope Trump pulls a miracle out of his ass to overcome the rigged voting and that the “less energized” subset of the Independent and Republican “likely voter” contingents don’t go for Hillary or decide to stay home.

Anonymous said...

One more thing, AE

The priceless opportunity to motivate and mobilize 47 Million Eligible White Voters has been squandered. Given this, I offer The God Emperor the following last minute advice:

1. Seek advice from a team of psychiatrists and psychologists for Debate #3. At minimum, Donald needs to provoke Hillary into a live seizure on camera.

2. Work the Catholic and Protestant Christian angle and the First Amendment in general. Point out that Hillary and “her core atheist and Synagogue supporters” intend to conduct new persecutions.

3. Put up $200 million for hard-hitting ads. Maybe $400 million. The enemy is going to break him later anyway, if he loses, to set an example to others.

4. The Hillary Campaign’s complicity with Soros’ plans to destroy Christianity in the West.

5. Hillary’s own crimes as an accomplice of the criminal sex predator, Bill Clinton.

6. Hillary’s own collusion with Putin and her exposure to blackmail from virtually every government in the world with electricity and a computer.

Just sayin'...

Random Dude on the Internet said...


I've spent the better part of two months getting people registered, filling out absentee ballots, etc. Unfortunately the GOP is very poorly equipped for significant GOTV efforts. Some people think it is intentional but my experience is that this is really the first time in their lifetimes where people are really, really excited to vote for the Republican nominee. One weekend they ran out of forms and I went to a local copy center and made 1000 copies of the registration forms so people can go knock on doors. It's disgraceful but hey, we weren't going to have people just walk out when they're excited to hit the street.

Generally I'd say that Trump's base, including his new voter base, tends to be with it more than the Democrats, which require getting a bus in major urban areas to hand out sandwiches to get them to go to the booth. Even the dormant voters or those who never voted that I came across, many of them already registered or were going to register (until we showed up and got them to fill out the form).

With the news of 250,000 PA voters switching affiliations from Democrat to Republican, Republicans leading in early voting in Florida, etc. I'd say the outreach is effective so far. The Democrat base is very different than the Republican base.

I think your assessment is a mistake. The need for ground game is more for apathetic minorities that Democrats absolutely need to win the election, not the fired up working class that keeps packing his rallies. More outreach is always better of course and there's still time. I remain confident turnout among whites will be very high, especially among the working class that will serve as the major tent pole for Trump's Republicans.

Audacious Epigone said...


A seizure at minimum? A seizure and it's over, way over.

Random Dude,

Great to hear!

Re: the LAT/USC poll, though, his support among Hispanics has bounced all over the place, it's stayed pretty consistent. The debate next week is on immigration among other things which is shocking to me that the Clinton campaign is permitting that kind of populist subject to be brought up, but if Trump does his homework he can rip her apart on this. Her "borderless world" speech to Goldman Sachs meshes perfectly with Bill Clinton's "borderless world" speech the day before 9/11. More refugees, more gang members, etc. He should have some of the family members of victims killed by illegal immigrants sit in the audience like he had Bill's rape victims in debate #2.

Random Dude on the Internet said...

Regarding audience guests, Chuck Johnson gave an interview I think it was on Fash The Nation that they invited a special guest for the third debate. Since he brought Kathy Shelton for the second debate, I assume he will be true to his word. I'd be curious who it is, my guess is that it is Bill's supposed illegitimate half back son but we'll see. With the Clintons, there are so many possibilities!

Anonymous said...

"Follow the Derb's advice instead and just don't do race.
" - DR3 is more aimed a the suburban Whites, so he probably does need to pay lip service to it. Otherwise though I'd certainly agree that there is zero percentage in it.