[Representative samples have] become increasingly difficult to obtain, with many voters having only cellphones, widespread disinterest in answering polls, and candidates challenging the 2 party status quo. Furthermore, when people know that they might be fired for supporting the “wrong” candidate, they are not going to respond….truthfully. That’s how Bernie was 22 points behind in [Michigan] the day before the election and won.In the primaries we saw polling in the earlier state contests regularly overestimating Trump's performance while polling in later states consistently underestimated it.
A cynic might say it's because the Cathedral wanted the Trump fireworks to go on for awhile for entertainment and pied piper value but later began fearing, once he began to look like the clear GOP favorite, that the Trump forest fire was burning out of control and had to be contained. There are real reasons to suspect that some intentional polling 'irregularities' have occurred.
That's what those of us on the Trump train hope is to be the case, anyway.
Pyrrus concludes thus:
My wife, an expert in this area, comments only that this would be an extremely expensive election to poll accurately.Let's take a look at the RCP average at the same point at the same point in the 2012 election cycle as we're in now:
To avoid redundancies we're considering a wider time frame in 2012 than we are when we look at RCP's most recent average for 2016. Across 14 polls and spanning nearly three weeks, in 2012 we span from Romney +3 to Obama +3, a range of 6 points.
Compare that to the current RCP average for 2016:
Across 10 polls spanning 11 days we span from Clinton +12 to Trump +2, a range of 14 points.
The polling this time around, at least some of it, is in fact quite inaccurate and will turn out to miss the final mark badly, even with the benefit of margin of error taken into consideration. Including reported MoEs extends our 2016 range from Clinton +15.6 to Trump +5.6--a difference of more than 21 points!--over a sampling period of less than two weeks, all of which was conducted less than a month out from election day.