Saturday, September 24, 2016

Roughtly 1-in-30,000,000 police stops of blacks result in unjustified killings

Another small bridge connecting the races together was burned in the virtual world last week. A black guy I went to high school with, Brandon, wrote the following in response to the Charlotte shooting:
I was thinking last night as I drove home.

I live in LA.

Not afraid of gangs, muggings, car jackings, or black on black crime.

Not afraid of domestic terrorists, Al Qaeda, or ISIS.

The only thing in this world that truly scares me are police.

I say this not to create animus. I say it because its true. I would literally jump out of an airplane again before I called 911 for anything other than a fire. You cannot understand or empathize with what you fear. You fear me because of the sins of your ancestors. You fear my strength and promise. You fear my potential. You fear my forgiveness as much as you fear my vengeance.
The line about "the sins of your ancestors" is particularly remarkable because if whites ever lose the religiously-tinged sense of racism as Original Sin, it's game over for blacks. Without the white guilt life vest most blacks would drown in WEIRDO societies.

Blacks need whites. Whites don't need blacks. To the contrary, fewer blacks means fewer problems. That assertion is true almost irrespective of what the metric is--criminality, intelligence, health, family stability, innovation, financial viability, violence, longevity, poverty, infant mortality, time preference, on and on and on.

At some level it's easy to sympathize with Brandon. He's modestly intelligent for a black guy, affable in person, and proud of who he is. He almost has to rationalize here because ratiocination would lead him to human biodiversity, and human biodiversity to the rather obvious conclusion that people of sub-Saharan African descent need to live in societies predominantly populated by, managed by, and maintained by Asians or Europeans unless they want to have a standard of living and quality of life that is on par with what's on offer in Detroit, Haiti, Baltimore, Zimbabwe, or Ferguson.

I responded:
The fear may be true because you're experiencing it. That's subjective and consequently not something anyone else can evaluate.

What we can evaluate, though, is that your fear is irrational. Black-on-black crime kills 2000% more blacks than police shootings do. Between this police shooting and the next one that takes a black life, hundreds of blacks will kill other blacks.

And avoiding being killed by cops is easier than avoiding being killed by other blacks (or whites or any other group for that matter)--simply follow police instructions to the letter and you'll virtually always be fine. It may be humiliating, it may constitute a miscarriage of justice, it may even mean subjugating yourself to the whims of a racist, but if you follow instructions you won't end up dead. That's not necessarily the case when it comes to an armed robbery, a carjacking, or an assault.

This isn't to pick on you for experiencing a visceral reaction. Humans are more rationalizing creatures than they are rational creatures. I'm more apprehensive about lightning than I am about driving my car. You may be more scared of spiders than you are of driving your car. We are both, of course, far more likely to be killed in our cars than we are to be killed by lightning or spiders.

That said, if reconciliation is so unattainable, if these feelings are so embedded, so incorrigible, that we're effectively stuck with them forever, why don't we separate from one another? Secession is the political equivalent of divorce.

Why not? This country of 330 million has so many major fault lines of disunity--economic, political, religious, racial, linguistic, cultural, geographic, ethnic--that it's crazy to think that the tensions and the acrimony are going to do anything other than continue to get worse until we reach a breaking point, one that will likely be more violent and less civil than any of us would prefer.
He immediately deleted the response and unfriended me.

An ally, Kaoswear, crunched the numbers to figure out what the actual likelihood of a black being fatally shot during a police stop actually is and sent me this (slightly edited):
172 Blacks shot by police in 2016 (15 unarmed). Projecting that forward to the end of the calendar year gives us 229 (17 unarmed).
Roughly 1,100,000 sworn officers in the US. Realistically the number on the street is probably closer to 700,000. 
If we give the police absolutely no benefit of the doubt whatsoever and assume that every single black that was shot by the police was shot unjustly (armed or not), that means over the course of the year 0.03271% of cops--1 in 3,075--have unjustly killed a black person. 
If we eliminate the armed suspects, that is 0.00243% of cops--1 in 41,176--shooting unarmed blacks. 
Cops stop 3-4 people per shift. With 700,000 cops who work 50 weeks a year and five shifts per week, that is 875 stops a year per cop, for a total of 612,500,000 stops. If 40% of those stops involve blacks, that gives us 245,000,000 blacks stopped per year. 
If 100% of all blacks shot by police are unjustified, we're at fewer than 1 in 1,000,000 black stops resulting in the shooting death of the suspect. If, again, we only consider unarmed black suspects, we're at nearly 1 in 15,000,000.
The odds of winning the state lottery are several times greater than the odds an unarmed black will be killed by a cop.

If we allow that sometimes cops get it right and the suspect complies with with the commands he's given (which by definition does not occur in the case of armed shootings), the likelihood drops to some fraction of those unarmed figures.

For simplicity's sake let's say it's half the time the unarmed shootings are justified. That suggests a black being stopped by a cop has a 1 in 30,000,000 chance of unjustifiably being killed in the encounter.

Be ready to raise the drawbridges. The path to war is becoming inexorable. The Alt-Right arrived on the scene not a moment too soon.

14 comments:

IHTG said...

Ensconced here on your old-fashioned blog and gazing in awe at the Twitter wars, I think you may have developed an exaggerated view of the importance of the Alt Right. The mass populist movement that Donald Trump is building is not the Alt Right.

O SD said...

So much for the possibilities of Truth and Reconciliation any time soon, so long as there are people like you publicly expressing stuff like this. Doesn't it occur to you that bloggers, like every other human being, have a responsibility to help improve the world and not start wars?

Jack Burton said...

Very few friendships/associations who disagree politically will survive alt-right debates. I've found that the vast majority of people absolutely hate cognitive dissonance. Some people, usually Jews, libs and women, are hypersensitive to it. It takes people with a high level of rationality and resistance to the negative affects of cognitive dissonance to be able to debate these topics and not let it change their relationship. Your black friend turning on you is completely expected. Following unpopular truths and principles over the mob is a lonely road.

Most people follow groupthink, and with blacks it's nearly absolute. Democrats know blacks vote as a bloc. Republicans usually get single-digit percentages with blacks, and it's probably a fraction of 1% of blacks who are legitimately interested and advocate a racial realist point of view.

Blacks as a rule operate on emotional reasoning. What they feel, they believe is true. The typical black mind is full of cognitive distortions that make them perceive reality incorrectly. Their primitive id is dominant over everything.

Jim Mayer said...

I wrote recently something very similar to your point - for a country with 1/3 Billion ppl in it, these cases are comparatively few. The MSM is the culprit, always hyping for ratings. Some interesting info about Charlotte:

STUNNING FACTS!!!
Black People are doing the bidding of a White Man & don't even know it.
Re: Charlotte, With George Soros' Dirty Fingerprints All Over It.
There's a Black President
There's a Black Congressman
There's a Black Chief Of Police
There's a Black District Attorney
There's a Black Mayor until 2014 (Jailed)
There's a Black Officer Who Pulled A Trigger
There's a Black Man Dead of that Gunshot Wound
There's a Black Man that's angry on TV I Just heard say that:
There's a Black future for Whites coming 'cause they are all devils
There's a Black Man from the 1960's who'd denounce all the violence

Police: 70% arrested are out-of-staters. The 'outrage' was largely manufactured. People were reportedly bussed in to riot, which explains the speed & intensity in which the mob overwhelmed CPD. DCLeaks revealed GeorgeSoros is funding BLM among many other hostile orgs to “dismantle & recast” America more to his vision.

By the way -
His birthname 'Schwartz' means 'Black' in German, & was changed to Soros.
How do Blacks like gettin' owned by this old, rich, white European Prick?

Personally, I'm wondering when George Soros' long vacation will come.
Until he goes on that vacation, Blacks & Whites will keep going on theirs.
.

Audacious Epigone said...

IHTG,

No, it's not. Not even close to the half Hillary implied in the basket of deplorables remark. But it's where all the oppositional energy to the Cathedral is coming from. Trump hasn't thrown the Alt Right under the bus. To the contrary, he's refused to address it even after Hillary bizarrely mentioned us in a public speech. High profile Respectable Rightists like Ben Shapiro, who've been pestered relentlessly by the Alt Right on Trump's behalf, are switching sides and trying to get on the Trump Train.

Fifty years ago we had black athletes giving the black power salute in public, burning down cities, and killing cops. It's still here. All of it. It's either let it burn slowly, always with the risk that it gets out of control and turns into a national conflagration, or force the 'difficult' conversations that get at the real explanations, of which white racism is utterly trivial.

O SD,

Without honest black self-reflection conflict is inevitable in the current environment. The police very clearly can't protect themselves or their property, so it'd be suicidal to assume that they can protect us.

Jack Burton,

Well said. But the social networks Alt Rightists are creating through the virtual world are providing a tangible, palpable assurance that we already know to be the case--that few people believe the egalitarian Narrative--is in fact true. Growing numbers leads to a virtuous circle of more people having a look and finding resonance.

Jim Mayer,

I wonder if it's something a Trump administration's justice department would pursue all the way up the slimy ladder to Soros himself.

IHTG said...

All the oppositional energy? Well, let me tell what I think.

I believe that the Twitter trolls who identify as Alt Right have had an impact. They've unnerved liberal commentators and possibly caused the Clinton campaign to commit tactical or even strategic errors.

But the "institutional" Alt Right? Richard Spencer and all those guys? I think they're about as important here as the BNP was to the rise of UKIP...and in the event of a Trump victory, they may share a similar fate.

Audacious Epigone said...

IHTG,

Could be, and Spencer is probably considered the least palatable of the figures who've been boosted by the spotlight on the Alt Right (though he's also the person most responsible for said spotlight). It's worth noting that Spencer's name has seen a 300% increase in searches over the last year.

But guys like Derbyshire and Steve Sailer who were run out of Conservative, Inc and new media forces like Mike Cernovich, Vox Day, and Stefan Molyneux, these guys are all begrudgingly acknowledged to exist with perspectives that simply cannot be ignored and have to be answered. That wasn't the case even two years ago, let alone ten.

IHTG said...

The "new media forces" you mentioned I would consider the right-wing edge of the "anti-SJW movement", a broader movement of which the Alt Right proper is a radicalized subset. The Alt Righters think they're the vanguard and the more moderate anti-SJWs are hangers-on who will inevitably be radicalized, but I think they might be deluding themselves.

Interestingly, Richard Spencer himself seems to realize this. He's recently been talking about transforming the Alt Right into an intellectual advocacy group similar to the neoconservative movement in the 1970s, which is an implicit admission that most people will never truly become Alt Right according to his standard - they will have to be, well, manipulated into serving Alt Right goals.

Audacious Epigone said...

IHTG,

I think it's a realization that there are a lot of Alt Right camp followers who aren't that intellectually interested in the what the Alt Right is interested in, but who are drawn by the rebellious, hard-edged nature of the movement and its role as the only real oppositional force in existence now. Guys like Heartiste, who mix race realism with realtalk about the sexual market are creating a lot of young, high-energy men to go along with some version of the former while being drawn in by the latter.

One of my employees, who's 23, got me this (and I'm more demure about this stuff professionally than I am on the blog). I turned him on to Heartiste a few months ago and now he's sporting a Trump hat. He was pretty much apolitical before that. I see a lot of white college kids (and recent graduates like him) following a similar path.

chris said...

"sins of your ancestors."

What portion of Whites in the US today come from Whites that immigrated after slavery had ended?

How can it be said to be their ancestors?

If it is because they are of the same group as those whites who did do it, then does that not justify blaming innocent blacks for the crime and murder and rapes and violence committed by other blacks merely because they are of the same group?

Ultimately, at the grand scale, slavery was not something white people were responsible for. It existed before white people had any power, and once white got power on the world stage, they put an end to it. Many, many white people were enslaved themselves by foreigners, particularly North Africans and Middle-Easterners. The english word slave is derived from the ethnic name slav due to the fact that so many slavs were enslaved by Muslims.

There is no original sin for whites. If there is, then there is ongoing and present sin for blacks, and that is more pertinent because it is ongoing and present. Not to mention original sin for all races due to slavery as slavery was not a phenomenon with whites as the oppressors and non-whites as the victims, whites were victims too.

Audacious Epigone said...

Chris,

Exactly. Blacks collectively have no business claiming the moral high ground by any dialectical, logical, or rational standard. But they have to claim it anyway because if it's not systematic white oppression that keeps blacks in a perpetual state of suffering, we start thinking about the root causes, and the Equalist narrative simply cannot accommodate that.

silly girl said...

Found in comments at Steve Sailer.

Media tries and fails to get rapper to support BLM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhfB_QWy4DA

Audacious Epigone said...

Silly Girl,

Wow, he's too honest. Even as that weaselly Jew and Sharpe trying to look intellectual are prodding and pushing, he won't take the bait.

Anonymous said...

@Jim Mayer -That "70%" line was from an FOP official, not the police, and has already been ruthlessly destroyed as the lie it is.

If you're going to call people on their bullshit, don't indulge in spreading it.