Friday, September 23, 2016

Reuters-Ipsos oversamples those with college degrees, undersamples those without

The poll has come under criticism for oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans and independents. That suggests Trump will outperform Reuters-Ipsos' expectations.

In response to a reader's inquiry, I looked at the respondent polls from August 1st through September 23rd to see about the educational distribution. The poll has drawn 53% of its responses from those with at least a four year college degree and 47% of its responses from those without a degree. In 2012, exit polling showed those two figures swapped, with just 47% of the vote coming from those with a degree and 53% from those without.

That seems highly suspect given the strength of Trump's appeal among working-class whites--period, but even more especially so relative to Romney's appeal. And to a lesser extent, that also seems suspect given Hillary's appeal relative to Obama the SWPL wet dream's appeal.

If the Democrat primaries and caucuses are any indication, black turnout will be down from 2012 but that won't be enough to overcome Trump's middle American blue collar appeal by six points. It probably won't even be a wash. I suspect it'll be something like 55% without, 45% with.

In other words, the Reuters-Ipsos poll sample is more Democrat and has higher levels of educational attainment than the electorate will in November and the poll only has him down by 4 points.


7 comments:

pithom said...

Epigone, do you have any comment on Hillary's recent (past couple days) polling surge (nearly the same size as the post-9/11 Clinton Collapse; very clear in the LAT tracker and various other polls)? I suspect the BLM agitation has energized Clinton's support among Blacks, whose support for Trump seems to have collapsed in the LAT tracker. But the Clinton polling surge is also found among the rich and poor swing voters. It's also seen only among men, those under 50, and non-White, non-Hispanic people. Again, I think this is probably people thinking Trump will handle situations like the recent North Carolina Hillary rally badly as a result of misguided thinking and Trump's apparent failure to seize the initiative in response to it.

Mil-Tech Bard said...

If the political polling isn't using 'hostile field protocols' and face to face interviews, the poll is not worth the cost of the electricity to transmit it.

People have made their decisions and will let their votes speak for them.

It won't be Hillary.

Audacious Epigone said...

Pithom,

BLM probably hardened black support but these are the wafflers who probably got spooked by Hillary's health scare. Having not seen any more "smoking gun" evidence since the 9/11 collapse, these gullible get-along types have fallen back in line supporting the "safer" of the two candidates.

Random Dude on the Internet said...

The left wing hyperventilates any time Trump is either ahead or within the margin of error. Not a surprise that the poll sampling ensures that he stays down by a few points: not enough to cause certain groups to start freaking out but not so outrageous that normies are suspicious and cast doubts on the polling. Normie voters know that the race is a lot tighter than Clinton being up by 8 points. Just another reason why trust in the media is hitting record lows.

It will all come crashing down of course on election day when the poll averages and exit polls don't come close to matching. I suppose many media outlets are already working on a "secret racist white vote" essay to release on November 9.

silly girl said...

My 18 year old son just got his voter registration card. I will be driving him to the polls.

Cicatrizatic said...

This is a significant problem with a lot of online polling platforms. YouGov over-samples college educated whites v. non-college whites. Not surprising considering it is an online opt-in platform. It is obvious that there is more enthusiasm with non-college whites this time versus 2012, but many of these pollsters haven't adjusted accordingly. I think they'll be embarrassed on election night.

Audacious Epigone said...

Silly girl,

Good to hear. Your son is one of the many teenagers who are putting off getting a driver's license? Or are you just making sure he gets there?

Cicatrizatic,

R-I certainly suggests that will be the case. On the other hand, it seems like they undersample Hispanics, even taking low Hispanic electoral participation into account.