Saturday, September 17, 2016

Marriage gap wider than gender gap

Support among married women who are "likely general election voters" (n = 3,458):


And among unmarried men who are "likely general election voters" (n = 938):


Trump is also winning among married men and Hillary among unmarried women.

So Trump is beating Hillary among married people, both men and women, and she is beating him among unmarried people, both men and women.

Once again a voter's marital status is shaping up to be far more predictive than his or her sex is.

Parenthetically, this data is pulled from Reuters-Ipsos, a polling outfit that habitually oversamples Democrats and undersamples Republicans.

7 comments:

Jokah Macpherson said...

The unmarried men one really surprises me, even taking into account the oversampling of Democrats. I guess it was a little solipsistic of me to assume that every other unmarried guy is reading Sailer, Heartiste, etc.

Playing with the filters, it looks like race is a confounding variable for the unmarried men, but not the unmarried women. Still only brings it to a toss-up, though, if you limit it to whites.

Audacious Epigone said...

Jokah,

The reason it doesn't seem useful to filter by race when it comes to voting is that in most cases it doesn't have much applicability. Yeah, we can show that if the country was whiter the general election would look like the Republican primaries but the media narratives tend to be too simply stated to take more than a single variable into consideration at a time so I'm reacting to that.

read it said...

Race and marital status still seem like they would be interesting to look at. What fraction of black men are married? of those, what fraction vote Republican? For a black man to be married, he probably has a job. His job may be one that he feels he only has due to AA and therefore stakes his status on voting Democrat. White men may be the most likely to be married and therefore most likely to vote Republican and least likely to see their status as tied to democrat policies.

Audacious Epigone said...

Read it,

Trump gets 8% from both married black men and unmarried black men, so it doesn't seem to make much difference. A minority of American adults today are married, and, like illegitimacy rates, it's a lot worse among blacks, with only about 1 in 5 being married IIRC.

ChickenChicken Sweep said...

Jokah,

Even a few moments on any social media will reveal hordes of white knights convinced a visible vote for Hillary is a permanent pussy pass. Yes, there are indeed many men that stupid.

Anonymous said...

I guess today unmarried men are emasculated pussies. That is the only explanation for voting for Cankles.

Audacious Epigone said...

Among unmarried white men, Hillary and Trump are essentially tied at 45% a piece. Still, the white-knighting/emasculated pussies explanation is applies to half of America's white male bachelor population.