Sunday, September 11, 2016

Curiosity trumped the cunt

Pulling up the NBC forum from earlier in the week today on Apple TV reveals yet another instance of greater interest in Trump than in Hillary:

While the age distribution of electoral support doesn't look as distinctive this year as it has in years past, Hillary still does better with people the younger they are and Trump the older they are, so watching an NBC production on youtube should give Hillary an artificial edge, yet here we are.

Trump has generated 3x the interest Hillay has
since he announced his candidacy

None of this matters, of course. Hundreds of thousands of people are taking half an hour out of their day to watch Trump in a tame, formal setting because they hate him or are at most merely carnival-curious. Don't be fooled into thinking this has anything--anything!--to do with what people will do on election day. We already have a foolproof system for determining that!


Cicatrizatic said...

Hillary health episode, stock market volatility, new Wikileaks (this week?)

Perfect storm for Trump

I expect he will head into the first debate tied in the RCP average, or maybe even with a small lead. That is assuming that the polls between now and then don't resort to fraud or manipulation, like the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, which purportedly re-polled after getting undesirable results, and whose numbers on each cross-tab do not match anything else under the sun.

Trump is +3 in the three daily tracking polls: LA Times, People's Pundit Daily, and UPI/C

Also, the WSJ had an article on this year's undecideds. 13% undecided, as opposed to 8% undecided in 2012 at this stage, and they prefer a Republican Congress to a Democratic Congress by an almost 2 to 1 margin.

Audacious Epigone said...

Wikileaks should hold off. Wait and see if she gets up from this knockdown before the ten count. If she does, knock her ass down again as soon as she gets up.

State polls continue to look better than general election polls do. He's not down in any state Romney won and he's modestly ahead in Florida, Maine's 2nd congressional district, and Iowa. New Hampshire is close. So is Nevada and Ohio. Even New Jersey and Rhode Island look like they could be in striking distance. If Trump wins New Jersey and another baby state like New Hampshire or Iowa he doesn't even need Pennsylvania.

Mil-Tech Bard said...

Trump was publicly inevitable on 31 Aug 2016 when he met with the Mexican President.

If there was any *chance* Trump would lose, El Presidente would have not have met Trump.

Meeting Trump before the election was the only way Mexico would have any leverage with Trump after his election victory.

Hillary's collapse was simply the main stream media admitting openly for a panicked half day that Trump will be president, before they all snapped back to the Oligarch's narrative.

The Z Blog said...

The preference cascade is a concept/observation made by a Turkish economist. Normal people behave and tell pollsters believe as they think they ought to, even when they think some other action is better. The result is you may have public opinion publicly on one side, but privately on another. If an event appears to confirm the private opinion, public opinion can switch rapidly.

This was the story of the GOP primary. Trump would appear mired in a narrow range of polling, but then something would happen and we would see his polls jump and then plateau again. Often, the "what happened" was simply a poll showing he was ticking up. People inclined to trump would then feel confirmed in their preference and we saw a cascade of support.

I've noted for a year now that Hillary Clinton has been stuck in the low 40's in national polling. An incumbent with those numbers get a primary challenge. The reason is, history show that merely being a a reasonably alternative is enough. Trump's challenge has been to establish himself as a reasonable option. His polls ticking up could very well set off a cascade of support in the state polls and we have a different map in a couple of weeks.

Cicatrizatic said...

Agreed on preference cascade. If Trump pulls into a lead, I think it's over. Once he becomes perceived as an acceptable choice, and undecideds see that he can very will win, he will get most of them. We know from the WSJ article that they are predominantly conservative voters anyhow.

I'll be very interested to see what the polls do in the next 2 weeks, in the run up to the debate. Particularly, the difference between media polls and non-media polls.

Wikileaks dropped their first teaser last night. My guess is that they will drop their most significant leaks in 2 or 3 installments. Perhaps one of them a few days before the first debate, and then a second one right in between the first and second debates. The time period from the first debate to the second debate will be the point at which the public's attentiveness to election news will be at its highest.

Cicatrizatic said...

State polls out today showing Trump winning in FL, OH, and NV. The shift is real. Some of these polls were conducted prior to the Clinton 9/11 health collapse.

Audacious Epigone said...

Yes, there is this feeling in the air that the Trumpslide is about to become apparent in the traditional indicators, as it already is in the non-traditional ones. If we assume a 4-point swing across battleground states, it's neck-and-neck (by traditional polling indication) in New Jersey and Trump is leading in Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Iowa, and MECD2. He can lose PA, hold the rest from '12, and he wins the EC.

Santoculto said...

Illary is like the mister burns masked such a lisa simpson.

Random Dude on the Internet said...

The election is over. There may be brief moments where she makes small gains here and there but people are not going to vote for a leader who may not even make it through her first year in office. Trump is up by six points today in USC and LA Times. The gap will continue to widen, unless something crazy happens. The remaining undecideds and independents will slowly but surely move to Donald Trump.