Friday, August 12, 2016

Moderate is a race relative term

Then again, what isn't?

How self-identified political moderates voted in the 2012 presidential election, by race:

Sample sizes are 361, 129, and 17, respectively. Yes, the Hispanic sample is prohibitively small. I'm confident it allows us to generalize all the same.

GSS variables used: POLVIEWS(4), PRES12(1-2), RACECEN1(1)(2)(15-16)


Dan said...

That chart shows totally broken Democracy.

But you can still lobby like hell and make a go of it, even if your representative is a Democrat.

Turnout for the Democrat primary (the only race that matters) was only 23% in 2014.

Bill Deblasio won the Democrat primary in New York with 23% turnout. Chicago had a comparatively enormous 42% turnout.

There is ample room for a 'conservative Democrat' to win their primary.

The Republican party could dramatically collapse if folks figure out that their best shot is to just work within The Party.

Dan said...

One thing I discovered when trying to activate on local / neighborhood issues is that even though Montgomery County Maryland is choking on diversity and will never even have a Republican for town dogcatcher, the overwhelming majority of people who come for county council hearings and who show up to testify are white and many are no doubt conservative.

That is to say, after the election when the candidates are done pandering, you can maybe get their ear. Maybe you would never have voted for them, but they don't know that.

Grass roots conservative activists have been frustrated that the GOP gets their vote and then listens to a whole different set of people once they get to Washington. Well conservatives can play that game also. And they may have to. I have had way more contact with my county council folk than their voters ever do.