Thursday, July 14, 2016

A pence for your thoughts

Pence is from the cuck corridor. German Midwestern niceness doesn't mesh well with Trump's unapologetic pugilistic virility. Pence endorsed Cruz in the primaries, too, so this is a sort of olive branch to those supporters. Pence is a cookie cutter Conservative, Inc pol. He complements Trump's weaknesses among traditional Republicans.

Gingrich is all style and no substance. The number of things--not just political--that he has been wrong about over the years is pretty staggering when they're taken in tandem. I remember a Fox News special he hosted a decade ago about the impending bird flu epidemic (that never materialized). He is also a serial philanderer, far worse of one than Trump ever was.

Chris Christie should never have been taken seriously for the spot. He's a socially moderate Republican from the northeast--in other words, he's Trump's demographic doppelganger. He makes no sense as VP. Attorney general is far more likely.

Among the serious contenders I preferred Sessions by a mile, of course. He's old, physically small, and not charismatic so it's not surprising that he wasn't picked. But he'll be by far Trump's most reliable congressional liaison. A Trump presidency makes him the country's most important and powerful senator.

At least it wasn't a ridiculous affirmative action pick like Condi Rice. The symbolic power of a presidential ticket comprised of two white men shouldn't be dismissed in The Current Year.

The biggest risk Trump is taking with a GOPe-approved figure like Pence is that Pence will face a lot of pressure from the most determined ‪#‎NeverTrumpers‬ to abandon Trump sometime between now and November, a move that could sabotage Trump's candidacy. Trump wouldn't have had to worry about that from Sessions, Christie, or even Gingrich, but it's a legitimate concern with Pence.

All this is predicated on Pence actually being offered the spot. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that he is testing the waters here just as he has done remarkably effectively with opposition adjectives (low-energy, lyin', crooked).

17 comments:

pithom said...

Pence's voting record is conservative (though not, like that of a Cruz, Flake, or Paul, ultra-conservative) and very party-line:

http://voteview.com/HOUSE_SORT112.html

At least 200 Republican representatives more liberal than him.

Cicatrizatic said...

It looks like a move intended to shore up support from two groups that, heretofore, have been reticent to support Trump: Congressional Republicans and Midwest evangelical conservatives. Apparently, sitting Republicans in Congress love Pence from his 12 years in the House.

Campaign-wise, my fear is that the media will use Pence (because of the Indiana religious freedom law) as an opportunity to brand the Trump campaign as "anti-gay":

"Mr. Trump, why did you choose someone as your vice president who hates gay people"?

Given the media and the left's dominance of the gay rights narrative, I'm not sure either of them will handle that line of questioning well.

However, if terrorism and security continue to become more prominent themes, that will help Trump.

Anonymous said...

I would have liked that General that was being bandied about a week ago.
Two absolute outsiders of Washington, two (apparently) pugnacious guys. The general would have filled Trump's perceived lack of foreign policy experience, and would have provided cover for independents/Democrats to vote ('I'm not voting for the Republican-I'm voting for the a-political general').

Perhaps two pugnacious white outsiders was too much of a risk. But Pence seems like just another random Washington name-won't inspire anybody or anything, but is part of the establishment, so I guess he has that...

anonymousse

Cicatrizatic said...

Here come the NBC News polls, riding to the rescue for Hillary.

If you believe these polls (which even show Clinton winning comfortably in North Carolina), it will be a 2008-like blowout with the Democrats taking 350 or so electoral votes.

I went back and checked the NBC News polls from the FL, OH, and PA primaries to see how they fared. They were terrible. In each case, the Quinnipiac poll was much closer to the final result.

Mil-Tech Bard said...

If Pence helps Trump win. It is a good choice.

That is Trump's call.

The Z Blog said...

Pro: Pence is well regarded with the Wuss Right and the gaggle of Betas that populate mainstream conservatism. They have their quibbles, but they see him as one of their own. That neutralizes some of their criticisms of Trump, at least through the campaign. Trump will never win over these people, but he can sideline them.

Pence has always been pretty sensible on immigration. I think this is way underrated. There's always been a sizable group of immigration realists in the GOP, but they get rolled by guys like Ryan. Rewarding a guy for being sane on immigration sends a powerful message.

Then there is the fact Pence is a political pro who has been in the game for a long time. He knows how the system works, who needs to be stroked and who can be trusted. Trump will have to get the Ryan types on board with his agenda and Pence can help keep them in the tent. At the same time, Pence can let Trump know who is scheming to undermine him.

The bigger asset is not political, but tactical. Trump is the consummate outsider. He needs help building a team that can formulate policy and attack the leviathan that is the Federal state. Pence can function as a key members of the hiring committee.

Con: Pence is about as interesting as womyn's basketball. I've seen him speak and he reminds me of every corporate department head explaining how he saved money on envelopes. Pence is a guy you hire to run the company after it is built and the hard decisions have been made. You send him out to organize the Wichita office after it's been open for a few years.

He is a pussy. There's no getting around his flip-flops as a governor. The Cuck Corridor is weird, but Indiana is not Wisconsin. There are plenty of Borderlands types in the south and not that many Scandinavian commies. Hoosier, after all, was a slur for mountain rednecks from Western Virginia. Yet, Pence still folds under the slightest pressure.

He does not help with a state Trump needs. This is a bit overrated, but picking a guy from out west would have been better, I think. I don't have anyone in mind, but picking someone from outside the Trump base would have been better in theory.

Overall: No one really cares, but Pence will be an asset after the election.

Anonymous said...

A yuuuuge blunder:

http://www.vdare.com/posts/darrell-dow-on-trumppence-blunder-and-more-on-impeachment-risk
http://www.vdare.com/posts/trumppence-blunder-or-betrayal

President Trump will be impeached. Pence shall replace him.

Audacious Epigone said...

Pithom,

Like Gowdy or Chaffetz. Trump, in one of the debates, said something to the effect of "I'm pretty conservative, but more importantly I'll make a good president". That seems to be what he is signalling ideologically with regards to the stuff that makes-or-breaks votes for a lot of people but that ultimately doesn't matter (same-sex marriage, drug legalization, etc).

Let Trump do what he has to do to reorient our current invite the world, invade the world, go in debt to the world meta-policy. Parenthetically, when people who aren't dunces ask why I'm supporting Trump, that's the angle that I've found opens the most doors: I'm against invading, inviting, and becoming indebted to the world. Trump is the best on those metrics by far.

Cicatrizatic,

Trump will turn that around on Hillary wanting to settle Muslim refugees in the US who want to throw gays off of buildings. I don't think it'll get much traction.

I'm wondering how Pence will address the moratorium on Muslim immigration. He cucked hard about it over the winter. If he's a true asset now, he'll say that while it took him back at first, as he watched attack after attack across the Western world over the last several months, he's realized Trump is right. If he says something along the lines of "we agree to disagree", Trump fucked up in picking him.

NBC/WSJ/Marist almost always has Trump doing worse than the rest of the pack does, and has done so for much longer than R/I has. They did get Indiana right, though, to their credit.

Anonymousse,

Flynn was a pro-choice guy. This isn't the sort of Culture War election that we've had throughout the 2000s, but virtue-signalling about abortion is important to a sizable slice of the population, a slice that is concentrated heavily in the cuck corridor.

Z,

Well put as always. I have nothing to add that doesn't detract from that assessment.

What do you think about the runaway risk though? That's something I haven't seen discussed, and it would be dishonorable as hell, but it would also be one hell of a #NeverTrump coup if they were able to pull it off.

Audacious Epigone said...

The biggest problem with the runaway idea, of course, is that Pence won't be running for re-election now and it's too late for him to renege on that, so he'd really be falling on his sword for the GOPe cause if he did so.

Audacious Epigone said...

Anon,

Yes, worthy things to be concerned about for sure. As I think I made clear, Pence is not an optimal choice in my eyes, but he's not the worst pick, either.

Alternatively, Trump is co-opting part of the machine. Pence doesn't seem to have a core. That's bad if the #NeverTrumpers can keep their tentacles in him. On the other hand, nobody gives a fuck what they say anymore. If Bill Kristol spoke at the Republican convention next week he'd probably have rotten fruit thrown at him. The sky is now the limit for Pence. He could opportunistically turn on the GOPe just as easily--more easily, probably--than he could turn on Trump.

pithom said...

BTW, aside from Pence's foolish touchback amnesty trial balloon (which is reminiscent of Trump's door in the wall), his immigration stance seems mostly solid (far more than that of, say, a Ryan):

https://www.numbersusa.com/content/my/congress/952/gradescoresheet/

https://www.numbersusa.com/content/my/congress/863/gradescoresheet/#tabset-3

So at least he's against inviting the entire world, though he was for invading it.

One thing Pence does is blur and muddle Trump's stances: he's strongly anti-abortion where Trump is, at best, ambivalent, he was pro-Iraq-war when Trump was calling for Bush's impeachment, he was pro-TPP when Trump was against it, and he was anti-Muslim-ban when Trump was proposing it. He was also pro-Cruz when Trump won Indiana with a landslide. I fear Pence's trade and Iraq stances might put off Pennsylvania Kerry voters, while his abortion stance might put off more socially liberal Trump voters without attracting conservative ones.

"Like Gowdy or Chaffetz"

-Yup.

"I'm wondering how Pence will address the moratorium on Muslim immigration. He cucked hard about it over the winter. If he's a true asset now, he'll say that while it took him back at first, as he watched attack after attack across the Western world over the last several months, he's realized Trump is right. If he says something along the lines of "we agree to disagree", Trump fucked up in picking him."

-100% agreed. Watering down the message is not good.

pithom said...

When Pence was called on it by Hannity, his response wasn't great:

https://youtu.be/9zf2Pewgi9I?t=675

Dan said...

The field of non-cucks is pretty thin. Trump got amazingly few endorsements from Republican senators, reps, or governors.

Christy has the scandal problem. Sessions is needed where he is. Sarah Palin, er no. All the people Trump ran against are now damaged goods (heh!)

Anonymous said...

Koch Brothers tool Mike Pence is just Ted Cruz without the uber abrasive personality. Trump didn't need to choose him. As Vdare pointed out, the overwhelming majority of evangelicals were on board with his campaign and the #NeverTrump phenomenon was almost entirely limited to social media. The waffling Pence has a track record of being favorably disposed toward immigration and trade deals. This will alienate many of the white blue collar voters we were hoping would come out of the woodwork. What Pence actually provides Trump is assassination insurance. He also provides the GOP elite (GOPe) with a replacement should Trump be impeached for getting out of line. Assuming Trump wins this election and the next, the permanency of his gains following the 2024 campaign are almost non-existent.

Trump's greatest possible achievement would have been to finally destroy the old Bush/Clinton GOP and recast it in an implicit, pro-white mold. This has now been 100% abandoned in an ignominious surrender. Or betrayal. The Alt-Right has been rode hard and put away wet.

The Huffington Post and others headlined Trump's glacial progress towards establishing local campaign organizations – boots on the ground. I wondered about this, along with the ever rising prominence of Sheldon Adelson' proxy Newt Gingrich in Trump's campaign. This signalled an intention to strike deals with pre-existing entities who could provide a “plug n play” grass-roots presence on the ground. Despite my misgivings the God-Emperor's Internet tools assured me that He knew what He was doing. We've now seen the deal. Many of the entities chosen - filament extrusions of GOPe/CONe - are the same ones who have consistently and actively alienated the white blue collar and “redneck” vote. They are the same people who moan with pleasure every time the fat NR fairy Kevin Williamson writes a column trashing working class white people.

The old Trump would have had to rule by executive order. There is nothing profound he can accomplish working with a Koch Brothers Congress, Paul Ryan as House Speaker and possibly a razor thin GOP Senate majority led by Mitch McConnell. Yes, the Wall will likely be built but remember, Trump told us it would have a Big, Beautiful Opening for Legal Immigrants (from the third world). This will satisfy mush-for-brain conservatives longing for Reagan II and an eight-year nap. But what follows Trump is the end. There will be no third chance for us “to awaken” in 35 years.


Cicatrizatic said...

"This will alienate many of the white blue collar voters we were hoping would come out of the woodwork."

I doubt many blue collar voters are going to investigate Pence's various positions, find out he is less hard-line on immigration than Trump, and then abandon their plans to vote Trump. There are very few voters who go to that level of engagement.

"Trump's greatest possible achievement would have been to finally destroy the old Bush/Clinton GOP and recast it in an implicit, pro-white mold. This has now been 100% abandoned in an ignominious surrender. Or betrayal. The Alt-Right has been rode hard and put away wet."

It has not been "surrendered", as it was never Trump's plan to start with. It is an alt-right fantasy. Trump is a pragmatist who read Coulter's book and realized which way the wind blows. He is a good healthy force for steering America in the direction of nationalism. But he is not and never purported to be the embodiment of pure ethnic nationalism.

Trump is a businessman, a non-ideologue, a negotiator who will by nature compromise to the middle on almost all of his positions. He won't necessarily deport all of the illegals, but will likely deport many of the worst ones. It won't be a 50 foot concrete wall across the entirety of the Mexican border, but rather some combination of wall and security fence.

It is good to stand behind the Trump movement, but the alt-right should not make the mistake of projecting onto Trump their ultimate ideals. He is at best a temporary vessel in the fight against globalism.

Anonymous said...

"It is good to stand behind the Trump movement, but the alt-right should not make the mistake of projecting onto Trump their ultimate ideals. He is at best a temporary vessel in the fight against globalism."

You're right.

A part of me realized that Trump didn't buy the Alt-Right fantasy of recasting the GOP into an implicit, pro-white mold. Despite this, a greater part of me caught the contagion from the "God-Emperor's" enthusiastic followers because I had hoped for something different after years of failure. I'm glad the schizophrenia is over.

Thank you.


Mil-Tech Bard said...

Trump is about Trump.

If using the alt-right works for him...He will.

If using the globalists does...He will.

This is true of all politicians.

The issues at hand make the alt-right more useful in addressing the twin threats of Radical Muslim terrorism and the growing black urban gureilla war.

Both are the results of incitement campaigns the Left supports.

The solution to both problems is to end the incitement campaigns by what ever means necessary.

The Muslim incitement campaign won't end until the 'oil ticks' are failed states with no income. Making America energy independent will go a long way to get us there.

The African-American incitement campaign is embeded in the Left and the perminent bureaucracies in the Federal goverment (See the civil rights division of the Justice Department), media and public educational they control.

Turning over the Presidency to Trump will get to the DoJ.

What takes down the media and education establishment?

Heck if I know.

The default solution is that if peaceful change is impossible, violent change will happen.