Monday, April 04, 2016

Trump is the quintessential anti-German

Drumpf is informative because it is yet another stark illustration of the inverse relationship between how proud one should be of an ethnicity and how much that ethnic tradition has objectively accomplished*, or of Who? Whom? more generally. As Red Phillips sardonically wrote:
I need clarification from the PC police. It's wrong to call Barack Obama by his middle name Hussein. It's wrong to call Ted Cruz by his given first name Rafael. It's wrong to call Bobby Jindal and Nikki Haley by their real Indian names, because, you know, bigotry. But it's OK to call Donald Trump by his ancestral name Drumpf because bigotry against Germans is OK? Is that the official ruling?
It's also funny because of how poorly Trump does with ancestral Germans in the US (see Jayman's two-part series on Trump and the American Nations). Ethnic majorities/pluralities by county in 2000:


If Trump somehow pulls off a major upset in Wisconsin tomorrow, he'll hit the 1,237 not because Wisconsin's delegate haul is critical, but because it is one of the cuckiest states in the country. It's heavily German, Canadian-nice, conventional and friendly, enjoys little racial diversity outside of Milwaukee, etc. If he wins Wisconsin there isn't a state left besides Nebraska that he'll be incapable of taking.

As mentioned, that would constitute a stunning win. Iowa and Kansas are heavily German, too, and Trump fared poorly in both. The German (and Scandinavian) states of Minnesota, Nebraska, Montana, and South Dakota were and are going to be bad for him. Indiana is doable, and of course he won the open primaries in Michigan and Illinois, so it's not as though Germans are allergic to him (he is at 40% in national Republican polls, after all). The West Coast is a tough call but I'd guess his relative performance will be best in California, middling in Oregon, and worst in Washington, and that he'll win California but lose the other two.

(Non-Mormon) English is much better--he won Nevada, New Hampshire, Vermont, Florida, and rather surprisingly lost Maine (although less than 2% of the eligible adult population voted in the Republican caucuses in that state--if it were an open primary Trump would've won it). Pennsylvania is an outlier if he wins, which I think he will, but I'm not confident he'd be able to without Kasich in. The rest of the English/Irish/Italian northeast will be easy.

Missouri provides a nice illustration. Without the Scots-Irish "American" southern counties, Trump would've forfeited the state.

Finally, it's rich because of how critical Trump has been of Germany's civilizational-threatening handling of the migrant crisis. There is no Drumpf in Germania anymore.

* Jews are a major exception to what should be thought of as a tendency rather than a rule.

7 comments:

Dan said...

I have Austrian heritage. Just wanted to say that Austrians drank all the Kool-Aid and then somehow realized their folly, jammed their fingers down their throats and forced themselves to vomit.

In the last six months they went from being arm-in-arm with Merkel to being arm-in-arm with Orban.

JayMan said...

See also:

The Donald Trump Phenomenon: Part 1: The American Nations

Audacious Epigone said...

Dan,

Good thing most Americans think Hitler was born in Germany and probably associate your ancestry with Arnold more than anyone else!

Jayman,

Linked in the body, albeit confusingly. It's the "two" in "two-part". Requisite reading.

HBS said...

I was hoping the exit polls in Wisconsin would break down the results by religion. Cruz probably does not do as well with German Catholics than he does with German Lutherans/Protestants.

The good thing for Trump in Pennsylvania is its not as German as Wisconsin.

@Jayman

Trump supporters are the Irish, Scots-Irish, Italians, and the Cajun French. In others words, the Celts and Romans.

Anonymous said...

Trump ought to be the first candidate to employ the "Buy American, Made in U.S.A." meme.

John Derbyshire said...

Audacious:

Old joke:

Q---Why are Austrians the smartest people in the world?

A---Because they have somehow convinced the rest of us that Beethoven was Austrian and Hitler was German.

Audacious Epigone said...

the Celts and Romans

Succinct, memorable way of describing it.

Anon,

It's insinuated I suppose, but the focus is on making it economically viable. Trump instinctively understands that the do-gooder nonsense--whether it be on climate change or domestic manufacturing--doesn't work if it doesn't make financial sense for the entities involved. Ergo, the emphasis is on restructuring tax and trade policies to realize as much.

Derb,

The Irish must be runners-up for convincing us that St. Patrick was Irish!