Sunday, February 21, 2016

Win blacks, win the nomination

In the 2008 Democrat presidential nomination campaign, Hillary beat Obama among whites and among Hispanics, but he crushed her among blacks and ultimately ended up as president for eight years as a consequence.

This time around Hillary is the new Obama and Bernie Sanders is the new Hillary. These Nevada entrance poll results illustrate the winning strategy she gleaned from Obama quite well:


In today's Democrat party, winning the presidential nomination requires winning blacks. They're as close to monolithic as it gets in American politics, so a Democrat who can keep it competitive among non-blacks just needs to get the black nod and victory is almost assuredly hers.

This presents an as yet unexploited opportunity for a savvy Republican pol to point out in front of a national audience. Its salience will be bad news for the party of the Coalition of the Fringes.

8 comments:

Dan said...

Hillary has 97% of the super delegates. Nate Silver, if he wanted to, could point out that there is not actually a Democratic primary for this reason alone.

My comment on the LOTB blog:

Because the Democrats don’t need to follow the rules they impose on everyone else, the concept of one person, one vote does not apply. Not all delegates are the same. Some get only 1/2 a vote, some get more. In 2008 there were 78.5 “unpledged add-on delegates” who don’t hold any official office.

In 2008, super delegates cast about 20% of the votes. Good luck trying to make sense of it all.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdelegate#In_2008

But the thing is, delegates in the Democrat Primaries are awarded on a proportional basis (not winner-take-all).

Consider this scenario: Bernie wins the popular vote solidly 53%-47%. With proportionality, he would have approximately 53% of the delegates and Hillary has 47%. Then Hillary wins easily on the 20% super delegates, of which she has 97% of those that have committed (most have already committed).

In that scenario, Bernie winds up with 42.4 + .6 = 43% and Hillary gets 37.6 + 19.4 = 57%. Hillary by a mile.

Suppose Bernie gets 60% of the popular vote to Hillary’s 40% (every state a New Hampshire landslide) and that is 80% of the votes. Hillary gets 97% of the remaining 20% super delegates based on current pledge rates.

In that scenario, Bernie winds up with 48 + .6 = 48.6% and Hillary winds up with 32 + 19.4 = 51.4%. Hillary even wins then.

You are thinking that the Democratic party wouldn’t allow this. But the Democratic party ARE the super delegates and they are almost all in Hillary’s camp. Why would they change the rules to defeat their candidate? There is no Democrat party outside of the super delegates to act as a neutral adjudicator.

Dan said...

There is exactly one endorsement worth getting for Sanders, and that is Obama.

That is his only path to victory. Obama would move the black vote and the super delegates at the same time.

You know the social analysis on this site (with the occasional insightful comment I like to think) is as good as any in the world on social topics and almost nobody can see it because we are deep in a dark ages that uplifts ignorance over truth.

Have you thought about going under the financial wing of Ron Unz? That might help financially and give you the financial courage to have a bunch more kids. =] And more eyeballs perhaps...

I have no idea how much he pays or if it is worth it. I suppose then you'd have to use your name perhaps, but Sailer knows you and could get you in I'm sure.


Mil-Tech Bard said...

This is Hillary's coronation, not nomination.

And you can darned well count on Trump making that point to 'Bernie Democrats' in the general election.

They won't vote for Trump, IMO.

But they won't vote for Hillary either...

...And Trump is a native New Yorker with all the appeal to state pride that brings with it.

If Hillary is spending money in NY State to fight Trump, she is going to lose all the "Purple" Obama states of 2008 and 2012.

Audacious Epigone said...

Will Bernie continue his campaign all the way through to the end and force the issue? He doesn't appear to be a particularly courageous person. After Super Tuesday, Bernie is almost certainly going to be behind not only in delegates but also in the popular vote because of how heavily black the states that vote that day are. Is there a chance he bows out then under tremendous pressure from the Democrat party in exchange for whatever, VP maybe? I'm apparently not that politically perceptive because it doesn't strike me as unlikely that a Hillary-Bernie ticket happens, but the markets predict that to be a highly unlikely outcome (odds are 12:1). Is this because it's simply inconceivable that the Democrats would run two whites on a presidential ticket?

Regarding Unz, that's nice of you to say. I wouldn't want to ask anyone to go to bat on my behalf. Ron Unz has commented here multiple times, so he's at least aware of the blog's existence. Fortunately we're in a good spot financially and my wife shouldn't ever need to work, nor should finances be a limiting factor on our ultimate family size. Don't think that "why only three?" comment you made awhile back didn't plant itself inside me. It's moved from the target to the minimum acceptable number of offspring.

Dan said...

Why only five?

Jokah Macpherson said...

"There is exactly one endorsement worth getting for Sanders, and that is Obama."

I'm kind of surprised that Obama doesn't endorse Sanders just to stick it to Clinton. From what I've read, in spite of her serving in his administration, they aren't exactly close pals.

Audacious Epigone said...

Jokah,

Obama is a giant in the Democrat party, but he's still not God. He'd be defying the settled upon consensus candidate of the entire party establishment by doing that. Additionally, Hillary probably has some dirt on him from her time as secretary of state. It wouldn't be mutually assured destruction, since Obama would just get scratched up while it would kill Hillary's presidential aspirations, but my guess is it's still not worth it from Obama's perspective. As is, she has to kiss his ass big time, as she's been doing, and it seems like he really likes that sort of flattery.

Anonymous said...

Ta neihisisisisisisisis coates could not get the negroes to feel the bern. Steve Sailer said coates was more popular in Boulder Colorado than in the hood. Looks like he was right.