Saturday, February 20, 2016

Vs Hillary 16% of Democrats would vote for Trump, 7% would vote for Cruz

We've seen that Trump cleans Hillary's clock among independents by a more than 2-to-1 margin, while against Cruz she actually holds a modest lead with them.

What about Democrat likely voters in November? Turns out Trump does better than Cruz here as well. Hillary vs Trump:


Hillary vs Cruz:


If Trump is able to beat Hillary by something like 70%-30% among independents and also steal 1-in-7 Democrats from her, his chances in the general look good. Romney split independents 50%-50% with Obama while only managing to get 1-in-11 Democrats to vote for him.

Cruz, in contrast, would need a huge Republican turnout to compensate for performing worse among independents and only as well among Democrats as Romney did when he lost to Obama in 2012.

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