Saturday, February 20, 2016

Trump winning in Belmont

The number of votes received from college graduates among the remaining Republican presidential candidates through South Carolina:


The number of votes received from those earning over $100,000 a year among the remaining Republican presidential candidates in New Hampshire and South Carolina (Iowa's entrance polls didn't include questions about income):


Yes, Trump wins in Fishtown even more convincingly than he does in Belmont, but his appeal spans the social, educational, and income spectrums. If the Republican contests thus far had been electorally restricted to college graduates with six-figure incomes, Trump would still be winning (to Charles Murray's annoyance).

Since our presidential nominating process is more democratically expansive than that, here are the total number of votes received among the remaining Republican presidential candidates through South Carolina:



11 comments:

RSRS said...

Winning in Red State country after trashing the Bush dynasty with a margin like this is genuinely impressive. There is no way to spin it otherwise. Cruz could not win among evangelicals for the second state in a row and that is the only group he has. He is done. Rubio is going to face a challenge on super Tuesday especially if Cruz is still in and it looks like he will be. Trump could really win this.

Audacious Epigone said...

Yglesias (credit where credit's due) nails it:

"Jeb Bush suffered yet another humiliating defeat — so humiliating that he was forced to drop out. But the South Carolina loss was a larger loss for the entire Bush family. He brought in his mother and his brother — it didn't work. In fact, it got worse. Trump went out and trashed George W. Bush's record as president, slamming the Iraq War and the dishonest sales pitch for the war. He even pointed out that Bush was president on 9/11, and that the various intelligence failures surrounding that attack were, in part, failures of his administration. The idea that you can win Republican Party primaries while saying this kind of thing casts the entire legacy of the Bush family in a very different light."

Herzog said...

Blaming Dubya/his administration for not having prevented 9/11 carries things too far. They were in office less than nine months when the assault took place. Whatever intelligence failures there were, they had much deeper and longer roots, way down into the times of the Clinton administration.

Besides, at the time the extent of the threat posed by Islam (note that I don't say "Islamic extremism") was hardly fully appreciated. Heck, still today there are many deniers in all strata of society. And in particular, an attack such as took place on 9/11 was wholly unimaginable. Let's not be too self-righteous with the benefit of hindsight.

dc.sunsets said...

And in particular, an attack such as took place on 9/11 was wholly unimaginable. Let's not be too self-righteous with the benefit of hindsight.

You're kidding, right?
1993's attempt to bring down the WTC by bomb barely failed. But 9/11 had no precedent...not.

Audacious Epigone said...

Herzog,

Pinning particular responsibility on Dubya's administration isn't justified, but as dc.sunsets notes aspirational Islamic terrorism on a massive scale certainly did have precedence. Security is one (of many) reason(s) that a moratorium on immigration from majority-Muslim countries makes sense now and made sense then. Instead, we had Dubya unhelpfully hand-waving, in front of an national audience, about the racial profiling of Arabs at airports.

Ron Guhname said...

Thank you for presenting the data and getting the message out that educated and high-income people like Trump, too. Pundits are constantly embarrassing themselves on this question. I don't know if it's stupidity or deceit, but all of them are claiming that the Trump phenomenon is driven by emotion, not ideas, and ignorance, not knowledge. This may help Trump because his competitors have tried to sympathize with the anger more than hugging him on the issues. So Cruz and Rubio: if you want to win, shut up about understanding how mad we are and start showing us how you're going to put America first. Both are smart and unprincipled, so they must be not changing because they're bought and sold by lobbyists.

Audacious Epigone said...

Ron,

Yes, him agreeing and amplifying the Haley Nikki "angry" label was brilliant. He outmaneuvers these clod-footed professional pols at every turn.

The Trump-supporters-are-angry-white-trash trope that Murray put forward in the WSJ--admittedly with more probity than his remarks about Trump and Trump supporters on social media--intentionally not only tries to minimize the widespread appeal Trump's campaign has, but also to shame potential Trump supporters into not backing him. It's a form of virtue-signalling. Now, now, good Calvinist, you know that it's all predetermined, but you can see signs indicating whether you're part of the elect or not if you look carefully, and supporting a vulgar clown like that doesn't inspire much confidence!

dc.sunsets said...

Excellent point regarding the Elect. In a larger sense the past 150 years monopoly of Progressivist theocratic America has been all about virtue-signaling "I'm a member of the Elect." Today's double-down of intolerant-of-intolerance is all about this squatters right to the moral high ground.

Mil-Tech Bard said...

AE,

We have a new round of sabotaging Leftie protestor versus Donald Trump. If vocally disrupting Trump does not work, they now try to pull the plug on the lights.

See how Trump dealt with it.


The lights go out on Trump when protester pulls the plug, but there's no dimming his presidential hopes as polls put him ahead in TEN of the 14 GOP primaries over the next two weeks

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3457575/We-won-t-pay-rent-Donald-Trump-uses-lighting-malfunction-Atlanta-s-master-negotiator.html#ixzz40rXFDBPB

Please also note that the Seret Service now has some big egg on its face here.

Audacious Epigone said...

Mil-Tech Bard,

I haven't got to that one yet, though I've heard it was wild. I try to watch most of his rallies either when working out or letting the kids free range.

We see how fitting the "can't stump the Trump" phrase really is. He takes every potential obstacle and turns it into something that works in his favor.

Mil-Tech Bard said...

A.E.,

Truthfully, I am more concerned about the security lapse than the SJW Protester - Trump melodrama.

The Secret Service used to be able to prevent this sort of thing.

Corruption caused incompetence has bitten deep into the Secret Service during the two Obama Administrations.