Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Trump Train

The total number of votes formally cast and tabulated thus far in the 2016 Republican presidential nomination process, by candidate:

The latest results from Reuters-Ipsos rolling five-day national tracking poll among Republicans:

The latest market odds for who is going to win the Republican nomination:

Looks like the manufactured narrative following Iowa that the Trump phenomenon was little more than over-hyped celebrity curiosity was mendacious agitprop. The professional prognosticators got it wrong yet again.

We clearly have a front runner here, one who has earned that designation in the face of relentless opposition not only from the Establishment in general, but from his own party in particular. And while the rest of the field has blown hundreds of millions of dollars to sit in his shadow, he's spent peanuts towering over the lot of them. He's out in front and he has the most left in the tank. The race is his to lose.


Dan said...

I bet the biggest cost of Trump's whole campaign expenses is his ride. How cool is that?

Anonymous said...

Since you're the numbers guy what does Trump vs either Clinton or Sanders in General look like? RCP - with only 3 polls mind you - has the Dem winning by several points.

I don't trust the poll numbers but we should not underestimate the free stuff vote.

Which is why Trump is so wise to not run as a conservative - he isn't. He's running as a Nationalist who won't screw with the [shh socialist] safety net.


Audacious Epigone said...


Sanders beats everyone on the GOP side in a hypothetical general election, while Hillary runs roughly even with them depending on the poll. Trump's match up with her is invariably tougher than for Rubio or Cruz, but not ¡Jabe!, who just looks awful no matter how you position it.

But right now people think of Hillary as a quasi-criminal and, increasingly, accessory to the abuse of women, while Bernie is the innocuous, doting geezer who sticks to his principles. Trump, on the other hand, wants to throw everyone of color onto trains and send them out of the country. In short, favorability and hypothetical general election matchups are probably meaningless this far out. Last summer, Trump's favorability was at 20%. He's doubled it now to 40%. I doubt he's reached his ceiling.

Audacious Epigone said...


He said just that at his rally in South Carolina last week. Did you catch it, or are you just that damned perspicacious?

Dan said...

LOL I didn't know he said that. But I know he spends nothing on advertising, and he can only eat so much so what's left? He has a Secret Service detail now. The other poor shlubs fly commercial, getting groped by TSA, rather than Melania. So sad.