Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Trump better than Cruz against both Hillary and Bernie in general election

Reuters-Ipsos interactive online polling interface allows for users to create their own cross-tabs. It permits us to look at four hypothetical presidential match-ups among "likely general election voters", and to do so with large samples.

First, Hillary vs Trump, as of yesterday (2/16):

Hillary vs Cruz:

Trump is more competitive with Hillary than Cruz is. The televangelist vote isn't enough to carry the electoral college.

Is Trump's apparent advantage over Cruz in the general merely ascribable to the specific dynamic that a Hillary-Trump race entails?

Here's Bernie vs Trump:

Quite similar to Trump's matchup with Hillary.

Bernie vs Cruz:

Cruz really gets clobbered here.

These hypotheticals all include Bloomberg, who, though more recently a Republican than a Democrat, would probably peel off more votes from Hillary/Bernie than from Trump/Cruz.

This underscores how difficult it is for a Republican presidential candidate to win a national election in 2016. The markets currently have the Democrats at almost 2:1 favorites over the Republicans to win the presidency. Unless the GOP forces a political re-calibration modeled on the Sailer Strategy--and Trump is trying to lead them there--the Republican future looks bleak.

Parenthetically, Reuters-Ipsos doesn't have data on potential Rubio or ¡Jabe! matchups.

Since Hillary remains the favorite on the Democrat side, let's look at how Trump and Cruz fare against her among self-described political independents.


He beats Hillary by more than 2-to-1 among independents.

And Cruz:

Hillary actually beats Cruz here. Cruz's appeal is limited to self-described "very conservative" evangelicals. He doesn't do well with any other demographic group. Trump repels a portion of those inclined to vote Republican, but he also has by far the widest demographic appeal in the GOP field.


The Crumudgeon said...

Trump's sales pitch thus far, has mainly been geared towards winning the Republican nomination. Assuming he wins that sale, which seems increasingly likely, he will then re-calibrate his sales pitch for the presidency.

Expect to see more measured tones, lethal kill shots against the Dem nominee, targeting the Bernie demographic, careful appeal to sub-sets of minorities tagged onto a carefully pitched Sailer strategy.

Dead Jesus said...

I've noticed in your election punditry, you frequently are citing extremely small poll sizes. The discussion of so-called independents in this post literally is based on an "n" of 105 people. It's ludicrous.

Additionally, you make the error of supposing that motivating white voters will not have any effect on black, Asian, or Hispanic voters. The reality is that a Trump GOP candidacy will have an enormous effect on Hispanic turnout, especially if Hillary nominates Julian Castro as her running mate. In 2012, with Obama potentially in danger, it inspired blacks to turn out at greater rates than whites for the first time in history. The same thing will almost certainly happen among Hispanics and probably with Asians as well who are overwhelmingly immigrants or relatives of those who were.

Trump has the ability to get some black votes and some blue-collar Dems but his tax platform is repellant to the middle class. It's just more of the typical GOP supply-side stuff.

If you think the media are seriously attacking Trump right now, you are delusional. They haven't even gotten started.

The reality is that all of the Republican candidates will lose to either Clinton or Sanders.

Dan said...

Pope says Trump is not a Christian? Rich considering I am pretty sure Marxism and Catholicism are not compatible.

Jeez, has any politician ever had to put up with so much crap?

Here is the Vatican's pretty white-picket fence:

Dan said...

"The reality is that all of the Republican candidates will lose to either Clinton or Sanders."

If that is true, then one might as well drop a little bit of RealTalk upon the benighted world along the way.

What would be the point of politely going along with all the stupid leftist lies only to lose anyway?

Audacious Epigone said...

Dead Jesus,

You realize that some of the polls that comprise the RCP average are in the 300s for LVs, and then from there they are broken down into "moderate", "conservative", "very conservative", etc, with these sub-categories in the n = ~100 range, right? I don't know what the CI is on that sample, but even if the MOE is 10 points, it still looks really good for Trump and bad for Cruz. At the very least, it's suggestive.

Blacks punch slightly above their weight, not only because they turnout at rates comparable to whites (~60% of eligible blacks vote), but also because they're spread out in lots of electorally competitive states. Hispanics punch way below it (~40% of eligible vote), as they are concentrated in two of the least competitive states--California and Texas. See here.


The head papist impugning the religious integrity of a Protestant just days before one of the country's most Protestant states holds its primary. I'll take it!

Dead Jesus said...

I also forgot to mention that a Trump candidacy in the general will certainly mobilize the most active voting demographic: college-educated whites. They've been turning leftward for years and Trump would absolutely antagonize them in a very big way.

If Trump's policies were more like Santorum minus the gay obsession, he could have a chance in the general. His personality is perfect for the moment but his tax policies are too right wing. Successful nationalist candidates embrace the welfare state for citizens and they don't try to cut taxes primarily for the billionaires. If Trump moved more to the left economically, he could get a lot of lower class whites and blacks.