Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Trump dominates the Nevada Hispanic vote

Nevada Republican caucus entrance poll results, by race:

This is the first empirical field test of how (Republican-inclined) Hispanics are reacting to Trump. In short, they like him. Turns out appealing to middle-American whites without any Diversity! pandering doesn't repel non-whites anymore than anything that doesn't explicitly promise them government goodies. Citizenism is on the upswing in 2016.

The white-Hispanic support gaps are marginal among the three remaining serious contenders. Cruz's white-to-Hispanic ratio is very slightly higher than Trump's, while Rubio's is a bit lower than Trump's.

The Trump phenomenon has left the punditry class looking schizophrenic. Sometimes they say he's too extreme, sometimes they say he's too moderate, and sometime they accuse him of being a closeted Democrat. He's illustrated just how limited and limiting the mainstream American political landscape is. There isn't a salient place in the public consciousness populists with more in common with the European Right than with the Democrats or Republicans.

If we have to force Trump to fit onto the American two-dimensional spectrum, though, he probably gets put between Cruz (more conservative) and Rubio (more liberal). To the extent that there is any difference in how white Republicans and Hispanic Republicans vote, it's that the Hispanic curve appears to be shifted a bit to the left of the white curve.

This is an observation Steve Sailer has made several times to help explain why Mr. Amnesty McCain and--relatively, very relatively--restrictionist Mitt Romney both fared about the same among Hispanics. Immigration motivates them about as much as it motivates whites, and the Hispanic political curve looks a lot like the white curve if the white curve was shifted to the left 20 points or so.

Since we're on the topic of immigration, it continues to be Trump's most rock-solid issue. His candidacy is a referendum on a wall and people who care about immigration want that wall:


TangoMan said...

The other 3 issues in the survey are all downstream of immigration. It's depressing that so few people have a ready understanding of this.

Mil-Tech Bard said...


Trump is leading with Hispanics because he is about following the rules and the law on immigration for the benefit of American citizens.

Hispanic Legal immigrants want the rules followed because they followed the rules to get here

Citizen Hispanics want the immigration rules followed because illegals are cheaper to hire and more expensive for citizens to pay for with their taxes via the cost shifting of the burden of social benefits from the employers to citizens.

Trump is all about reducing job competition from illegals and H1B foreigners for citizens and eliminating the open borders corporate cost shifting burden on the working and middle class.

A burden paid for via the working/middle class local income. sales & property taxes to cover the costs of crime, health care, education, and other social benefits that open borders illegal immigration brings.

Trump is the only viable presidential candidate to run on a real close borders platform since Sen Ted Kennedy opened the borders in 1965.

Of course Trump is going to pull in the Hispanic working and middle class citizens.

To slightly paraphrase Pres. Bill Clinton political operative James Carville --

"It's the Working & Middle Class's Economy & Jobs, STUPID!"

Anonymous said...


Hokie said...

Worth noting that a third of hispanics aren't Mexican. Argentinian, Colombian, and Cuban hispanics are more likely to be white than Mexicans, and thus very conservative. I wonder if meeting these more middle class white hispanics shapes the GOP view of them, and if meeting more mestizo peasants would change their minds.

Audacious Epigone said...


Trump is the first genuine "citizenist" since Steve coined the term a decade ago. It's a cousin of populism, but it's not the same.


Alternatively, many of these Nevada Hispanics may be Mexican by descent and consequently don't have any ethnic affinity for Cruz or Rubio.