Collecting data? I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, as he does allude to it in the article referred to below. It's not like Establishment disdain, especially when so utterly devoid of substance, is detrimental to Trump's chances anyhow. With said disdain, Murray is in good company.
The Republican party forfeited time rebutting Obama in its state of the union response--an opportunity for the party to reach a wider audience than just about any other time over the course of the previous year--to attack its own frontrunner (and by extension, a plurality of its electorate). The next day, Nikki Haley, feeling the electorate's heat, was walking her insults as Trump had a field day owning them.
National Review blew its load attacking him. Crickets chirped.
A couple of days ago, Rush Limbaugh endorsed Cruz over Trump. The day Limbaugh said this, Trump's national support among Republicans was at 36%. Today, it's registering at 40%.
Nobody gives a shit what these self-important gatekeepers think anymore. To the extent they do pay the sentries any mind, it's largely for the purposes of refutation and ridicule. The walls are crumbling all around them, and people are pouring in over the rubble as those newly exposed gatekeepers hug up against those now irrelevant gates. When one of them foolishly steps out to skirmish with someone rushing past, he often gets torn limb-from-limb in the ensuing bloodbath (read through the responses and enjoy some schadenfreude).
Getting back to Murray, he has an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal about the Trump phenomenon. The gist is that Trump is a predictable, rational Fishtown response to the effects globalization and mass immigration are having on working-class Americans. That's fine as far as it goes, but he's deluding his readership by implying that Trump is just being carried along by the uneducated, resentful poor. To the contrary, as Z explains:
One of the things I have been looking at in the polling data is the fact Trump seems to have a steady vote share across demographics, excluding race. Despite all the blather from the Conservative Industrial Complex about Trump relying on low-skill angry losers, he polls well with the college educated and he does well with higher income earners. In the GOP field, Trump is the most broad based candidate running.We've looked at this before, but to see what is directly in front of our noses requires constant vigilance, so let's take a look at support among Republicans in Reuters-Ipsos most recent five-day national tracking poll, first by educational attainment and then by income. Among those without a college degree:
Indeed, Trump dominates among the less educated. And among those with at least a four-year college degree:
Oh, he still has more than twice as much support among college-educated Republicans as the next guy does. In Charles Murray's defense, I'm sure Andy Reid would be livid if the Chiefs only won against the Broncos 34-16 in their second meeting of the season after beating them 42-19 in their first match up!
Maybe it's the well-educated but monetarily unsuccessful who are powering the Trump train. Support among Republicans earning less than $50,000 a year:
Trump's base of support is broad. Cruz's support base is actually a better example of what Murray describes Trump's support base as than, uh, Trump's actual support base is.
Okay, but that's just polling. What really matters is how people vote. Let's look at how Trump did among college-educated granite staters:
He won handily. And among wealthy New Hampshire voters:
Well, Murray's still right about the genetic influence on cognitive abilities, so there's that.