As I wrote in December:
It's easy to forget that Hillary beat Obama handily among whites, 56%-44%, and among Hispanics, 64%-36%, in the 2008 Democrat primaries. But she was trounced among the most monolithic voting bloc in the US and that cost her the election. Blacks backed Obama, 85%-15%.Bernie is running through the beginning of a brutal and potentially campaign-killing gauntlet. South Carolina is just the first of the body blows he's set to receive this week.
Hillary learned the hard way that there is no winning the Democrat nomination without dominating the black vote. White liberals are simply not going to vote en masse against a candidate that black Democrats support (that would be Racist!--it if did occur, it would signal an enormous fissure in the Fringe Coalition), and black Democrats all vote for the same person. So whoever that person is gets the nomination. In 2016, that person is Hillary.
Following are the percentages of Democrat primary voters in 2008 who were black by states that vote on Tuesday:
Alabama -- 51%
Arkansas -- 17%
(Colorado is a non-binding caucus for which no exit polling data are available, though it's conceivable that this will be, in addition to Vermont and possibly Massachusetts or Minnesota, another Bernie win)
Georgia -- 51%
Massachusetts -- 6%
(Minnesota also caucuses)
Oklahoma -- 7%
Tennessee -- 29%
Texas -- 19%
Vermont -- 0%
Virginia -- 30%
Even in states like Texas and Arkansas, the black contingent is enormously important. If Hillary wins blacks like as she did in South Carolina, she can afford to lose to Bernie among non-blacks by 15 points and still win the states. A couple of polls have shown her narrowly losing with whites, but in the 47%-53% range, nowhere near the 15 point gap that Bernie would have to make up, and that treats non-blacks as all white, which is of course not the case with the Coalition of the Fringes. Bernie's Hispanic support is lower than it is among whites.
Consequently, it'd be stunning if, to go with his South Carolina beating, Bernie didn't get crushed in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. He'll win Vermont, and the other small states could go either way. Irrespective of those results, though, the story will be one of Hillary's domination and the pressure will really be put on Bernie to bow out.
Parenthetically, in response to the anticipated objection that in '08 Obama's candidacy brought out an exceptionally large number of blacks that won't be repeated this time around, note that the '08 Democrat South Carolina exit poll put the black figure at 55%. Tonight's exit poll put it at 61%.
Trump doesn't need to go after Sanders anymore. To the contrary, he should play up the way he's been treated by the Democrat party as part of the Hillary-as-corrupt-as-hell narrative. There is enough frustration with the establishment that some of those Bernie backers will come to Trump in November.