Wednesday, January 06, 2016

Trump comfortably leads GOP field among both wealthy and well-educated Republicans

Contrary to the picture painted by outfits like FiveThirtyEight, the Republican field is not accurately characterized by a "diploma divide" in which Donald Trump getts the support of those without post-secondary educations and an establishment pick like Marco Rubio wins over college graduates.

Yes, the magnitude of Trump's advantage among the less educated is greater than it is among college grads, but he's dominating among college grads, too. The latest from Reuters/Ipsos rolling five day tracking poll:

The story is the same when it comes to income. The latest results among Republicans earning at least six figures:

If the Vikings beat the Seahawks 45-10 in the wildcard round and then in the divisional round the final score in the Vikings-Cardinals game is Minnesota 30, Arizona 21, guess what? Yep, the Vikings win that one as well.


Anonymous said...

There's money to be had on the outcome. The prediction market at is still at 2:1 odds.

Audacious Epigone said...

Full disclosure: I put right at $3k into that online trading market. $850 is the max per share. The rest went on Hillary winning the Dem nomination and Jeb and Rubio both losing the GOP nomination. If this is the same anon who made me aware of predictit, thanks or fuck you. You'll know which one about the same time I do!

Audacious Epigone said...

Biggest question will be what happens after Iowa, when Trump presumably comes in second. The narrative will be that his support was hype all along, etc etc even though Trump's never polled well in Iowa and the nature of the caucus format there works against him. Given how little media narratives have influenced gauged support thus far, I suspect Trump will then go on to crush New Hampshire and South Carolina. If Trump offers Cruz VP at that point in return for Cruz staying in for awhile (to keep a single anti-Trump candidate from emerging), it'll basically be over then.

Anonymous said...

Heheheheh. Yes, this is the very same anonymous coward. :-) I'm $1k into Trump winning primaries. The "takes the cake" odds are very very attractive too, but I'm only $150 into that one. Dilbert creator Scott Adams has me convinced of the primaries at least. He predicts general election landslide as well, but I'm not ready to bet the farm on that one just yet.

Jokah Macpherson said...

If the Vikings, Cards, Packers, Seahawks and Redskins all team up to bum rush the Panthers, well guess what, the Panthers still win by a comfortable margin. Cam Newton is the Donald Trump of the NFC.

Dan said...

Politico, coming around to your point of view.

Good thing they read your blog.

Audacious Epigone said...


Yes they are, but the demographic hump is big and it's getting bigger all the time. If Trump wins the GOP nomination, I'd guess it'll jump in price to somewhere around $.35/share, but that there will still be a nice potential payoff. Flush with the earlier payoffs, we can think about going taking the cake with a little less anxiety.


Funny, one of the first comments I came across on PredictIt was someone comparing Rubio to Tony Romo, this being just after the Panthers crushed the favored Cowboys (even though Dallas was like 4-8 and Carolina was undefeated).


It's encouraging to see Trump, just in the last week or so, really start hammering the "get out and vote" message home. Trump has 10 million social media followers (roughly).

Iowa represents 1% of the total US population, so ballparking 100k social media followers from the state. If just half of those actually caucus on February 1, he wins the state easily.

Dan said...

Assassination is a non-negligible risk. An SJW somewhere no doubt imagines he has the chance to take out Hitler. Nigel Farage just recently survived an attempt. Maybe his fans protect him.

Legal risks are another. Banana Republic governments have a long history of arresting opposition candidates on flimsy grounds. Has there ever been such an anti-establishment candidate in America?

The Crumudgeon said...

Given that The Donald has both the GOP establishment, the Dems and the bulk of the Cathedral set against him, between them it's it's difficult to see them not finding a way of hobbling him.

Anonymous Coward said...


It may be time to sell those primary shares for the Don, lock in those gains, and put a portion of your net gains into the "takes the cake".

Anyways, that's what I've done. 2 in the hand is better than 2.157 in the bush, if you catch my drift.

Love your stuff! Been following you closing in on a decade. May God bless your family.

Audacious Epigone said...

What about Nebraska? If Cruz doesn't drop out after Indiana, I think he'll still win there and that's a hell of a return.