Thursday, January 21, 2016

Speaking of Nate Silver

FiveThirtyEight runs an endorsement primary, with one point awarded to house endorsements, five points to senatorial endorsements, and ten points to gubernatorial endorsements. Silver's site describes this system as "among the best predictors of which candidates will succeed and which will fail". Here are the standings, as of January 20th:

¡Jabe! -- 51
Rubio -- 43
Christie -- 26
Huckabee -- 26
Kasich -- 20
Cruz -- 17
Paul -- 15
Fiorina -- 3
Santorum -- 1
Carson -- 0
Trump -- 0

This system inversely correlates (r = .21, p-value = .52) with national polling results, though the relationship isn't statistically significant.

It also marginally inversely correlates (r = .05, p-value = .90) with market-predicted outcomes, again without statistical significance.

It's all just one big dog-and-pony show. The only thing that really matters is what Susan Collins said last summer!


Dan said...

Zip from the establishment. That has to be unprecedented, considering that he might just run the table.

Well it is still early on. Based on Nate's formula, there are perhaps around 800 Republican endorsement points to be had, so Jeb at 50 is only 6%. But I'm still amazed that none of the 325 or so Republican governors, Senators and Reps have broken rank.

Trump's endorsements include Sheriff Arpaio, Mike Ditka, Hulk Hogan, Ted Nugent, Mike Tyson, Dana White and other assorted ass-kickers.

Audacious Epigone said...


It is a fun list.

Juanita Broaddrick. That could be entertaining. The passes Bill Clinton was given two decades ago won't be so easily dismissed in this hyper-sensitive SJW world that we now inhabit. She could cause the Democrats to really start eating their own.