Saturday, January 30, 2016

Sanders now holds slight edge among white Democrats while Hillary leads substantially among non-whites

I've predicted that Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination because non-whites, especially blacks, won't vote for a carpetbagging Jew from lily white, rural Vermont who appeals to white college kids, and white Democrats won't vote for a candidate that black Democrats don't like.

That prediction is looking more precarious by the day (but hey, I do this for fun, while Nate Silver makes a living doing it, so cut me more slack than you cut him!). The first part is holding up--that non-whites won't back Sanders--but the second part--that liberal whites won't contradict non-whites--appears tenuous. Support among white Democrats in the latest Reuters/Ipsos five-day national tracking poll:

The same, among non-white Democrats:

The Clinton campaign's criticism of Bernie Sanders' implicit whiteness is drawn into sharper focus.

If having my powers of prognostication humbled is collateral damage in the process of the Coalition of the Fringes tearing itself apart, I'll suffer those slings every day!


Dan said...

What about turnout?

Black primary turnout can be very, very low. And Bernie's people are enthusiastic.

Regarding turning, I saw an article about the predominantly black DC suburb of Lanham Maryland planning to extend the vote to high schoolers (presumably to give the teachers extra votes). But what was the primary turnout (since primaries are of course the only the thing that matters for local politics)? The same article added at the end that officials were trying to improve the primary turnout of 6%.

Hillary's Southern wall might not be so impenetrable if turnout is like that...

Dan said...

Regarding *turnout*

Audacious Epigone said...


I used self-identified Democrats to pull both the white and black+Hispanic+Asian figure. Just now tried to look at "likely Democrat primary voter" and the sample sizes were too small for non-whites! However, it is worth noting that Hillary maintains a slight edge over Bernie among white Democrat likely primary voters.

Anonymous said...

The White democrats are being stupid. I very rarely attribute wisdom to Blacks and Hispanics, but they understand that Hillary Clinton has a fighting chance of beating Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders does not.