Just two months ago, Nate Silver, head proprietor of 538, wrote:
For my money, that adds up to Trump’s chances being higher than 0 but (considerably) less than 20 percent.
|Contender for 2016's most |
punchable shitlib face?
Silver's now on to explain how Trump can't win the general election because he's unpopular with voters. If he had any shame, he'd concede that his November assurances that Trump was a long shot at best for the GOP nod is now very much the contrarian position not only based on polling data--which he discounted in favor of prediction markets--but also based on... prediction markets.
The odds as of January 20th:
|Typical Trump rally|
Bizarrely, Silver asserts that while Trump's poll numbers are high, electoral participation by his supporters will not be correspondingly impressive.
Googling images for "[candidate] rally crowd" makes it abundantly clear that Trump's rally crowd advantage dwarfs even his lead in the polls, and he's holding several of these rallies per week, sometimes even per day. The presumption that rally attendance inversely correlates with electoral participation is a curious one to say the least. "We'll drive an hour and then wait in line outside in the bitter cold to see, from the nosebleed section, a tiny figure on the dais that the jumbotron reveals is in fact Trump, but we're not swinging by the polling location at the church four blocks down the road after work to vote for him in our state's primary!"
Unsurprisingly, Silver has nothing to say about social media activity either, another front on which Trump's dominance is uncontested.
|Typical Rubio rally|
He does even worse among all self-identified Republicans, garnering just 8.1% and placing fifth (behind ¡Jabe!).
While we're doing our best to wreck
Republican partisan affiliation is positively correlated with age, and consequently Republicans aren't popular among young people generally, but Trump comfortably beats the rest of the bunch. Again, the most recent five day national tracking poll results for those aged 18-34 among Republicans (all Republicans, as sample sizes for likely GOP voters in the age range are too small to be reliable):
Rubio, the market's putative runner-up, gets handily beaten by "wouldn't vote". Ouch.