Sunday, January 31, 2016

Iowa cucks

Some 99%--and that's not hyperbole--of Iowa's Republican caucus-goers are white. Here are candidate favorability percentages among Iowa Republicans from the last poll to be released before voting takes place tomorrow:

Do not underestimate the implicit self-loathing of even the most outwardly patriotic, traditionalist pink skins. The inchoate identitarianism that seemed so salient in 2015 is still a long, long way from maturity.


22pp22 said...

I live in Cyprus and when I try to access your site I am told by Norton it is dangerous and contains 13 threats. Is this true?

mikestreetstation said...

to 22pp22...

You bet this site is dangerous. There are a lot of ideas here...

Dan said...

Carson is only polling at 7.7% percent (RCP average).

Favorability is not the same as who you would vote for. I have a very favorable view of Carson. But that doesn't mean I want him as president.

That said, there is a lot of guilt among these Iowans! We all recall, it was Iowa where Obama broke out onto the national stage.

Todd Durham said...

I can get the favorable opinion of Carson without resorting to accusations of self-loathing.

I do not understand the favorable views of Rubio (an unaccomplished box of hair) or Cruz (who has a lean and hungry look even if he could stand to lose a few pounds).

Mil-Tech Bard said...

The "Reverse Bradley Effect" is strong with Trump.

It is professionally dangerous for whites to publicly support Trump.

The secret ballot in the GOP Iowa Caucus and Trump's Jacksonian in-group versus the world campaigning are going to surprise people in terms of pro-Trump turn out.

Toddy Cat said...

Mil-Tech is right. Polls notwithstanding, I'd be willing to bet that Trump finishes either first or a very strong second in Iowa today.

Mil-Tech Bard said...

Bernie and Trump share the same pool of very angry white middle class voters.

The better Trump does, the less well Bernie will do.

If they both do well, Katy bar the door for Nov 2016.

America will be in political waters not seen since Pres. Andrew Jackson destroyed the 2nd Bank of the United States.

Audacious Epigone said...


The security is run by our good friends at Google, so I don't think it's dangerous... at least not in terms of computer viral threats!




Right. 538 had a recent post noting the very modest correlation between favorability and electoral support. This post shouldn't be taken too seriously, but I did find it funny, and I'm to the point where I recognize these kinds of patterns immediately. I suppose that means I've become an identitarian.

Mil-Tech Bard,

Reuters/Ipsos online surveys have consistently shown Trump's advantage to be higher than all the phone-based surveys do. This lends credence to a reverse Bradley effect, since people feel more anonymity interacting with a monitor than they do interacting with another human being. We are counting on you to be correct tonight!

Mil-Tech Bard said...


Early Caucus counting favors Cruz ~30% to 27% over Trump and is from rural precincts.


24% of precincts reporting at this moment with Cruz at 29.7% and Trump at 26.9%.
9,859 Cruz
8,935 Trump
Rubio 19.1% 6,337 votes
(Bush still at 2.5%)

Turn out is estimated up 40% from 2012 and there are another 140,000 caucus votes to count.

There are signs are that media “Entrance polling” is under counting Trump supporters in a "Reverse Bradley Effect."

Mil-Tech Bard said...

Cruz is holding a 29% to 25% (~3,000 vote margin) lead over Trump at 9:50CST with 50% counted (more than 60K), but mostly urban votes are now coming in where Trump is stronger.

Slower counting precincts will be ones with new caucus goers.

This 'new caucus goer effect' is hitting both the Trump and Bernie vote.

Audacious Epigone said...

More than 60k at 50% is only on the way to 130k or so, which is a smaller turnout than seemed to be expected. That's not even one-tenth more than in 2012.

Audacious Epigone said...

That gap is too wide to close. The market has totally dumped Trump in Iowa, trading at 10% now (was 65% this morning).

Audacious Epigone said...

Getting dumped for nomination and presidency, too. Seems like a severe overreaction to a single state that until a few weeks ago he was expected to lose. New Hampshire is only a week away.

Mil-Tech Bard said...

It's about 30,000 to 40,000 votes left and Cruz has a 4,000 vote lead.

Trump won't pull it out.

The storyline is now ”Trump under-performs, polls are wrong and Rubio surges into NH, and Trump - Blood is in the water”

IOW, Trump has a "Bradley effect," not a "Reverse Bradley Effect."

I think Trump underestimated the power of focused negative campaigning combined with Fox news Channel and the majority of Talk Radio hosts being against him.

Mil-Tech Bard said...

Audacious Epigone,

Via TCTH comment thread --

Fox News reports that 60% of their early entrance polling shows on the GOP side, Evangelicals make up 60% of early attendees. Cruz leads Trump by only 2% among evangelicals and Rubio by 3%

40% of early attendees were new to the caucus system on the GOP side. Trump leads them by a wide margin then 2nd is Rubio.

With this high turnout of evangelicals, this is a must win race for Cruz. The rest of the states won’t have that high number. He needs to win big.

9:40CST: Multiple reports–from CNN to the Des Moines Register–suggest that Republicans will have a record turnout north of 150,000 caucus-goers

NB: Trump did bring in a record number of new Caucus goers. This seems to have swept in a fair number of Rubio voters and didn't give Trump enough margin for the all out evangelical effort Cruz put in.

Audacious Epigone said...

Entrance polls show evangelicals were 64% of Republican voters, and they went Cruz-Trump-Rubio 33%-22%-20%. Among non-evangelicals, it was Trump-Rubio-Cruz 30%-26%-18%.

This will not win the presidency in 2016.

Mil-Tech Bard said...

Reported via TCTH --

It looks like the 800 Cruz supporters, out of TX, that went to IA to go door to door is what made the difference.

They could not go door to door in the rural areas. Those areas went to Trump.

Cruz won the cities, unexpectedly, because of the door to door folks for Cruz.

Mil-Tech Bard said...

Rough numbers, it looks like those 800 Cruz GOTV walkers from Texas turned about 10 urban voters each in the last five days.

Again, rough order, They had to contact a minimum of 100 or so occupied residences each.

Sabedor said...

What is the group among liberals who are the most ''anti-semitic''**

the younger ones.

Who the younger libs are intending to vote***

Santoculto said...

Sabedor = santoculto