Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Trump dominates rest of GOP among independents, third partiers

Trump's advantage over the rest of the Republican field among self-described independents and members of third parties is nearly twice as large as it is among self-described Republicans. Here are Ipsos-Reuters top five among Republicans as of December 15 (well past the latest campaign-finishing remarks about a moratorium on Muslims entering the US):

Among GOP voters, Trump's support is 230% that of Cruz, 282% of Carson, 347% of Rubio, and 358% of Bush. Among Republicans, then, Trump has a little more than twice the support of second place.

The top five Republicans among independents and third party members as of December 15:

Among independents and third party people, Trump's support is 376% that of Bush, 447% that of Carson, 533% that of Rubio, and 582% that of Paul. Among independents and third partiers, Trump has nearly four times the support second place enjoys.

Trump trumps the field among Republicans, but he outdoes himself among independents.

The reason this doesn't appear to mesh with hypothetical general election polls showing Trump faring worse against Clinton than other Republicans do is in part due to those polls including registered voters, rather than "likely voters", a more restrictive and informative category. Around 85% of the adult population believes itself to be registered to vote, but of course a significantly smaller percentage of the population actually participates in the electoral process (57.5% of eligible voters did so in 2012). 

Given Trump's salience, what is being picked up here with whoever-vs-Trump is a reflexive rejection of Trump among the types of people who know nothing at all about politics besides what they see in social media feeds ("Trump? No way, I'm not waaaacist!"). They instinctively choose the anti-Trump in a head-to-head match up, but that doesn't translate into support for any particular candidate when that "registered voter" is asked to choose from a list of people because they don't know who any of the people are and they won't be voting anyway.


Sam said...

My 80 year-old mother is a dyed-in-the-wool moonbat, she has previously supported Al Gore, John Kerry and John Edwards in their bids. She is now a Trump supporter. I do not know what to make of this.

Audacious Epigone said...

Is she vocal about it? I wonder if Trump's support is understated because of the perceived opprobrium people receive for publicly expressing their support for him.

Sam said...

She is not vocal about it, I'm guessing her circle would be, at least publicly, disapproving.
When I say she's a hardcore democrat, I mean she attended Jimmy Carter's inauguration.