Wednesday, December 02, 2015

To every poll spin, spin, spin, no matter what it's a Trump win, win, win

The summary of what follows is the major media continue to present Trump's chances in the least favorable light possible, far past the point where any plausible deniability that an attempt is being made to present news on the Republican presidential nomination in an objective fashion can be seriously offered. So if the specifics are of little interest, don't waste your time. I get that to point out the mendacity of a media structure whose relevance is in a state of perpetual decline is to point out the obvious, but it is still worth doing from time to time if for no other reason than to remind those who don't follow the major media closely that things haven't changed much.

Headline: Trump falls 12 points in a week!

It comes from Reuters' daily tracking, which had Trump as high as 42.9% at one point during November, distantly trailed by a #2 at 13.6%. If you're following the Real Clear Politics average that has been used to determine the debate lineups that have occurred thus far, you'll immediately recognize how out-of-line the Reuters numbers are with the other polls that make up the RCP average. Even after appearing to fall over a cherry-picked five-day period to 31%, Reuters had Trump up on second place by over 15 points, a margin wider than any of those included in the RCP average. Parenthetically, over the subsequent five days, Trump has climbed back to 36% in the Reuters poll, more than 20 points ahead of #2.

From RCP's average, the astute observer will also notice a seemingly inexplicable two week period in the first half of November when no new data were incorporated into the rolling average:

Curiously, that two week period began immediately after a couple of recent polls had shown Carson neck-and-neck with Trump. The red dash on the left shows when the fortnight of silence began and the oval on the right shows the polls that were used to show the current RCP average during that two-week period. Polls since then have shown Trump leading significantly.

So we have a media complex that was mum on Reuters polling (which is internet-based) throughout the first several months of the campaign when it found Trump's lead to be even wider than the phone-based polls that RCP uses were showing. Then when Trump takes an apparent dive in that ongoing tracking poll that had until then remained hidden in plain sight, the headlines converge on the magnitude of the apparent drop.

Parenthetically, I don't use "apparent" flippantly here. The range of error on these tracking polls is around 5-7 points. For example, when Reuters had Trump at 31% a week ago, it also noted that this suggested his true support was somewhere in the 27%-37% range! To report putative climbs or drops from a single poll that are within the margin of error of what other recent polls have shown is irresponsible and also suggests innumeracy.

And we also have a media complex that sits on polling data when what has already been revealed makes it look like someone is closing the gap on Trump, the hope being that by artificially keeping the Trump-losing-ground narrative around for awhile, Trump's actual support will fade. As Trump's lead in the phone-based polling amalgamation is now, at 10 points, consistently larger than it has been at any point since September, that media tactic had to be shelved for the time being.

If you need a reminder of why Trump must be the candidate of the dissident right, here he is trashing two of the most prominent members of the neocon old guard from the Bush years. First, Bill Kristol:

And then, channeling Steve Sailer, he tears into Karl Rove.


Toddy Cat said...

I can safely say that I have never seen the MSM this hysterical and mendacious, and I can remember both Reagan, and the Tet Offensive. They REALLY fear this guy, and that's good news for us...

Rove is a fat slob said...

Death throes of The Cathedral. The less they matter, the louder they yell. Trump 2016!!!

22pp22 said...

Toddy Cat, you have obviously never heard a BBC report on UKIP. That sets the standard for hysterical and mendacious.

Dan said...

The latest CNN poll... oh my. A 20 point lead.

CNN/ORC poll:
@realDonaldTrump 36%
@tedcruz 16%
@realbencarson 14%
@marcorubio 12%

Oof. And not only that, it is 66% to anti-establishment candidates.

Panic! What to do!!?? Heaven forfend the GOP should actually listen to its constituency that has been screaming itself hoarse on immigration and TPP.

Just one more humiliation that the public must endure is the Obama administration forcing a school to let a dude swing his dick around a high school girl's locker room, and if said dude is not permitted to swing said dick around those high school girls, the full weight of the administration will come down on the school. No politician on the right can call out these stupid liars? Its so easy. Trump has shown the way. When you are called a hater and a bigot, just double down, triple down, moving the Overton window each time until the media averts its eyes in horror.

Once the words 'racist' 'sexist' 'homophobic' etc etc lose their power over people the left has lost its primary mode of control.

Dan said...

The difference between America and the USSR, the reason America is not a Communist country is that in the USSR Trump would have been killed by now by the government as a lesson to those who dare to speak out. We have free speech! And the Internet, glory be! All these losers have to do is grow a pair.

All of the "courageous" comments by other candidates are made within the Overton Window established by Trump. Would it be impossible for any of them to do their own lifting?

Toddy Cat said...

"Toddy Cat, you have obviously never heard a BBC report on UKIP"

No, I've been denied that pleasure, but I'm sure that it's every bit as bad as you say...

"in the USSR Trump would have been killed by now by the government as a lesson to those who dare to speak out."

True, I don't think that America is a Communist country either, but we're a lot closer than we were 20 years ago. I wouldn't rule out Trump being assassinated by a "mentally ill" person sometime between now and election day. I hope to God that I'm wrong, but this country is starting to give me the creeps.

Audacious Epigone said...

Rove is a fat slob,

Trump referring to the New York Times building as a "cathedral". Probably just coincidental, but if we're listening for dog whistles out here on the dissident right, that might perk up some ears.


That's a phone line poll, the kind that Trump has tended to fare relatively poorly in compared to internet-based surveys, to boot. Time is running out on the GOP brain trust and they appear to be totally impotent when it comes to doing anything that will bring him down. He is impervious to every attack and ends up actually leveraging many of them to his own advantage.

Today I heard a metaphorical description of what the internet has done to the old media gatekeepers. The gate is still there and the gatekeepers are still manning it, but the walls that the gate is built into started to crumble and people are streaming through the breaches right on past the gatekeepers, who can increasingly do little more than impotently yell at them to stop.

Toddy Cat,

If Trump has anything, it's good instincts. Surely he keeps a capable private security detail with him at all times.

Joshua Sinistar said...

Fishwrap died a long time ago. Dese nutz that long for yesterday's children to come back for more crap and less relevance are now sucking the cock of Mexican Telecom merchants simply to avoid the death that their constant avoidance of supporting popular opinion has now made unavoidable. These arrogant boobs that falsely believed they could forever suppress public opinion by fake replication of multiple heads of the same Hydra monster of constant lies has hit the wall which precludes the possibility of continuing to avoid obvious observable reality with ridiculous claims and overly dramatised histrionics. As more and more of these dinosaurs die off simply by the shutting out of their channels of repetitive garbage distribution based on distortions and hatred of Americans as a people, they have no choice but to adapt to the opinions of the viewers that might tune in or sign off forever when they can no longer even draw flies with this shit.