Monday, December 21, 2015

Rubio v Cruz, the battle for negligible non-white Republican vote share

Steve Sailer points to a NYT article on comparing the putative Hispanic authenticity of Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz.

Data on volunteered electoral preferences among Hispanic Republicans are scant. Reuters-Ipsos daily tracking consistently has a Republican/independent sample that is too small for Hispanics for the term to register as a identifiable category. I have been able to track down a couple of state polls in Georgia and Florida, both conducted in November, that have cross-tabs for candidate support and Hispanic ethnicity. Both consist of responses from "likely Republican primary voters".

In Georgia, Rubio gets 43% of the Hispanic support to Cruz's 23%. They get 8% and 12% of the state's total GOP support, respectively (keep in mind this was before Carson's precipitous decline began, back when Rubio and Cruz were a distant third and fourth). Yes, tribalism is everywhere--backing support among Hispanics out, we see that the two Hispanic candidates garner less than 20% of the state's overall Republican support, but 66% of its Hispanic Republican support.

In Florida, Rubio gets 23% of support from Hispanics of Cuban ancestry to Cruz's 9%. Among non-Cuban Hispanics, Rubio gets 9% and Cruz only 3%. Notably, Trump beats them both, getting 25% of Cuban support and 41% of non-Cuban Hispanic support in the state. Immigration from Mexico isn't a salient issue in Florida. Among all Republican Floridians, Rubio gets 16% to Cruz's 10%.

What do exist of the sparse data suggest that the ethnic pull is, at least currently, stronger with Rubio than it is with Cruz.


Dan said...

Rubio gets more Hispanic support than Cruz because he has both a Hispanic first name and a Hispanic last name.

Audacious Epigone said...

Cruz goes by a shorthand of his middle name, Ted. His first name is Rafael. To the extent that this onomastic stuff tells us anything, it's encouraging to see that he went with what he went with.

chris said...

The lower the female employment rate, the happier (relative to men) women were; the female:male happiness ratio was highest (in favor of women!) in Muslim countries and the Middle East.

JayMan said...


Correlations be correlated.

See also:

Fertility and Happiness: A Global Perspective

Audacious Epigone said...

It looks like egalitarian countries have higher levels of self-reported happiness, but men tend to be happier than women in those countries, while tribalistic third world places have lower total levels of self-reported happiness but women tend to be happier than men.

The utility of the term "happiness" is pretty tough to get a handle on.