Saturday, September 05, 2015

UnTrumpable

There is apparently no ceiling for Donald Trump. Or maybe he's just smashing it while Hillary Clinton bleeds everywhere, uh, figuratively-speaking.

In a SurveyUSA poll conducted among registered voters a few days ago, Trump beats all four Democratic candidates in a head-to-head matchup. Yes, he beats Hillary. Interestingly, the four prospective matchups are Trump-Clinton, Trump-Sanders, Trump-Biden, and Trump-Gore. In an election campaign full of surprises (as noted previously, if not for the Trump phenomenon--the most exciting political development in my lifetime--I couldn't stomach writing about this), it's remarkable that Trump is now on the verge of being cast as the Republican nominee, while the jury is still out on the Democratic side. Show me a pundit who was predicting that to be the case three months ago!

The poll includes some selected cross-tabs, including race, income, and education. There is, at 16% of those polled, a substantial "undecided" contingent. The election is more than a year away, after all.

The figures are pretty similar across potential Democratic challengers versus Trump, so I'll reproduce the Trump-Clinton ones here since that's still probably the most likely of the hypotheticals.

Among whites, Trump wins 51%-34%. That breaks 60%-40% under the presumption that the undecideds split identically to those who've expressed a preference, right at the cusp of what a Republican will need among whites to have a shot nationally.

Or that would appear to have been the case based on the last few presidential elections, anyway. But Trump polls exceptionally well among non-whites for a Republican. Among blacks, he only gets beaten by Clinton 25%-59%. Even if the entirety of undecided blacks vote Democrat, for the GOP to only lose by a margin of 3-to-1 among blacks is, almost literally, incredible.

Quite punchable
Among Hispanics, Trump loses 31%-50%, or 38%-62% if undecided Hispanics break in the same way. Despite promising a serious border fence/wall and deportations of illegals, he appears to be doing about as well as McCain did among Hispanics. Sit down, Jorge. Sit down.

And among Asians, Trump is slightly edging Clinton out, 41%-39%. #BlackLivesMatter may be doing more for Republican 'minority outreach' than any amount of the usual pathetic pandering the GOP establishment has made part of its act could ever hope to accomplish, and without turning off Core America in the process.

Trump also wins among the affluent ($80k+) and the educated (BA+), 45%-41% and 48%-40%, respectively. Arthur Goldwag wept. Parenthetically, Goldwag looks just like you'd expect him to look.

10 comments:

Jokah Macpherson said...

Wow, you'd think a face like that would get punched every now and then, and yet judging from the editorial you linked to, I'm guessing this has never actually occurred.

"People who condemn other people for talking about race are usually members of what my friend Harry calls the 'never-been-punched-in-the-face club'--smug, obnoxious people who feel very confider in their ability to say anything they want about what other people should and shouldn't do because they've never received a nice shot in the grill."
-The Coloring Book, Colin Quinn,

Audacious Epigone said...

Jokah,

Hah. Recommend the book?

Jokah Macpherson said...

Yeah, it's pretty funny and it's not a difficult read at all. Mainly it was just refreshing to have someone give their first-person perspective on how races are different without any pushback.

Black Death said...

Yeah, Trump continues to fascinate.

Highly paid know-it-all GOP consultants have spent years agonizing over just what they need to do to win the next election, which, since the Democrats have won the last two, by rights ought to go to the Republicans. Look what they've given us - Bush III, Walker Paul, Rubio, Cruz, etc. Then Trump comes along and blows them all out of the water. If Trump continues to hold his big lead among whites and do well among minorities, the Dems are toast.

Audacious Epigone said...

Black Death,

Yes, these consultants are either incompetent for failing over the last decade to see the Trump strategy for electoral success or they're effectively fifth columns working against the political success of Republican voters, or both. There are several things to like about the Trump phenomenon, and the (at least momentary) irrelevance of people like the Koch brothers and Sheldon Adelson is not least among them.

Unknown said...

AE -

Indeed. Karl Rove also comes to mind. Political consultants are like generals - they're always ready to refight the last war. Best to ignore them. Trump is a blessing in disguise for the GOP, if they're smart enough to realize it.

Dan said...

@Epigone --

I think fifth column is right. In terms of the issues that have deeply mattered to conservatives across the last two decades (border security, gay 'marriage'/culture wars/family values, right to bear arms, pursuing *American* interests in foreign relations) it seems like most of these insiders and fat donors have not been pointing their guns in the right direction.

@Unknown --

Blessing indeed. The establishment choice, Jeb!, is narrowly focused on the illegal Mexican immigrant vote, completely disregarding the illegal Chinese immigrant vote.

It is not just the Republican party that is receiving an education right now. The Democrats are wondering how it is that American blacks aren't enamored with the uncontrolled rush of third world immigrants, seeing as both groups have dark complexion.

Jeeves said...

Why would you call anyone who qualifies for Affordable Care Act subsidies "affluent"?

Mr. Goldwag may never have been mugged by reality (or, if you will, "punched in the face"), and he may be all wet about who Trump's supporters are, but I do know what "affluence" means. Not $80K a year. Which leaves me wondering what "educated" means.

Audacious Epigone said...

Jeeves,

Roughly the uppermost tercile in terms of income and educational attainment among the population of registered voters that were surveyed. It's as specific as we're able to get based on the survey data here.

mikestreetstation said...

"Yes, these consultants are either incompetent for failing over the last decade to see the Trump strategy for electoral success or they're effectively fifth columns working against the political success of Republican voters, or both."

I'm tempted to go with the fifth columnist option, because that's where my gut is, but my head tells me that they are simply trying to please their real employers; the donor class. Those are the ones who pay for the campaigns that pay these consultants, which is why the 2012 GOP Autopsy Report was all about amnesty as a way to win Hispanic hearts. It defies common sense, but it addresses the needs of the donors.