Wednesday, July 01, 2015

Why there may never be another Republican president

In 2012 an unpopular president--presiding over a 'bad economy', supported by an unenthusiastic base, and having been out-debated by a credentialed challenger--won reelection by a comfortable margin. Time is obviously on the Democratic party's side, so as propitious as the circumstances were for the GOP in 2012, they'll have to be even more favorable in the future for Republicans to have a shot at winning a national election.

Texas births in 2014, by race:


When the inevitable consequences of this demographic transition flip Texas from red to blue (in 2032 if I had to guess), the game will officially be over. For those familiar with the American political landscape, that might seem difficult to fathom at first blush. Consider, though, that from 1952 through 1988, California was a solidly Republican state, voting Democratic only once during that 36 year period. Now, of course, California is one of the most reliably blue states in the country.

Parenthetically, this is not to bemoan the decline of the Republican party per se. To the contrary, I've come to view its diminution as a good thing (and not only because it means fewer military blunders into third-world hellholes). The sooner a critical mass of people realizes that the idea of the US as a unified political entity is unworkable, the sooner secession becomes conceivable. Effective one-party rule is a great way to expedite that process.

7 comments:

Dan said...

Conservatives need to start running as Democrats. However they need to formulate that plan early in life, so as to as not to give themselves away. You can't have been a young Republican or an aid to a red-state representative if you want this to work.

Another option is that Democrats get so scared of real problems that they become conservative-ish. Bill Clinton was conservative on crime and welfare, presumably because things had gotten pretty bad on those fronts. Someone like that is a hope for conservatives.

Also, conservatives may need to start voting in Democratic primaries or not vote at all. People in blue states know this already.

Dan said...

So far, economic leftism has largely been avoided as the left pursued the culture war. Is it back to economic leftism? There has been a genuine shift away from economic leftism over time; will that now reverse?

Audacious Epigone said...

Dan,

I suspect the death throes of a competitive Republican party might get a temporary life extension if the apparent recent uptick in violent crime turns out to be a sustained trend. This picture from Baltimore probably helps Republican pols everywhere.

Re: economic leftism, did it ever go away, or just exist by proxy (wealth transfers from the middle class to the underclass meant wealth transfers from whites to NAMs)? If the latter, maybe now it starts shifting from implicit/by proxy to more explicit (reparations and other sorts of nakedly racial redistributions).

Anonymous said...

I think it will take longer for Texas to flip to blue than 2032 if it indeed does happen. California's recent Republican past from 1952-1988 tends to be exaggerated as it was nowhere near as Republican as Texas is now; it was a R+2 state at best, not an R+9 state. At the state legislature level, the GOP in California has only controlled the state house for one term (1995-97) since 1959, and has not controlled the state senate since the 1950's. The Texas GOP is still very strong at the state legislature level.

Joshua Sinistar said...

There is not going to be a 2016 election. This black bonehead is the last in a line of losers who shit the last ball of crap on the legacy of demographic voter bullshit.
Grab those guns, its gonna be WAR!

Anonymous said...

@Audacious

I don't think that one-party rule is going to last very long, and also think that the breakup of the Democratic party is more likely than the breakup of the USA.

What's gonna happen is this: the Democratic party is going get huge, and rule America for a while. Then, there will be a split along these lines: SWPLS, Jews, and Asians on one side and Blacks and Hispanics on the other. We will have a three party system for a while, because White proles will still be Republican.

Anonymous said...

To understand what is happening to America, you have to know what happened to South Africa. Mandela's Playbook is already being used by Obama and will just continue regardless of Republicans - in fact - the GOP will disappear and be absorbed by a new Mexican Party with Jeb Bush as 2nd in charge.

http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1sn5te0