Thursday, July 23, 2015

Blacks crush blacks

How the distribution of perpetrators of violent crimes perpetrated against blacks would look in a perfectly diverse, multicultural utopia:


How a naif might think the distribution looks based on the perpetual cherry picking and gross omissions served up by the major media:


Piggybacking on the 2012-2013 NCVS numbers crunched by Heather Mac Donald, how the perpetrator distribution against black victims of non-homicidal violent crime actually looks:


A picture is worth a thousand words, and this is a handy one to pull out of a back pocket every time a SWPL or race hustler yammers on about how some individual case of white-on-black violence serves as a microcosm of American society as a whole (while ignoring the 27 instances of black-on-white violence that occur for each single case of white-on-black violence).

Just 1-in-10 black victims suffer at the hands of non-Hispanic white perpetrators of violence. This even though whites comprise a majority of the population.

Proximity, of course, plays a substantial role in shaping the distribution. The Obama administration's drive to push NAMs out of the inner cities and into white suburbs will, as one of its many aftereffects, lead to an increase in interracial violence. As a consequence, a few more blacks will suffer at the hands of whites and a lot more whites will suffer at the hands of blacks. Diversity + Proximity = War.

Still, if #blacklivesmatter, it seems curiously ineffective and inefficient to focus almost exclusively on a small minority of cases in which blacks suffer if the objective is to reduce said suffering.

Whites are, in fact, less likely to perpetrate acts of violence against any of the groups measured--whites, blacks, Hispanics, or others--than their numbers alone would predict under the (flawed) assumption that propensity for criminal violence is distributed evenly across racial groups.

Blacks, on the other hand, at 13.2% of the population, are more likely to perpetrate acts of violence against members of all other groups than would be predicted under an egalitarian assumption based on their share of the population alone.



10 comments:

silly girl said...

Can all of the states please have gun laws like Vermont. We would all be safer. Thank you.

Anonymous said...

The #blacklivesmatter movement isn't mainly claiming there's a rash of private white-on-black crime, but is protesting killing by police, and there are reasons why misconduct by the state are more concerning than private violence. Considering only private crime gives a biased measure that excludes their main grievance from the data.

Now, it's fair to complain that the number of police shootings is small compared to the private murder rate, and in line with rates of suspects shooting police. It's fair to complain that the role of police racism is being exaggerated, compared to rates of crime in different populations and neighborhoods. But including police shootings will increase the share of black deaths by violence caused by whites, and looking only at private crime is a cheap shot.

http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/11/25/race-and-justice-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know/

silly girly said...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States_by_state

Okay, AE, go to that wiki page and sort by gun ownership. DC is lowest by a lot. The next closest has a rate almost twice as high. Then sort by gun murders DC is highest, by a lot. Well over twice as high as the next state.

Yes, yes, I know, this is not about guns or gun laws.

But DC allegedly has few guns but way tops the chart for murder.

Gee, I mean maybe it is not because of guns. I mean, maybe if they could get their gun ownership up to Louisiana levels, they could down to louisiana levels of crime

Dan said...

My coworker, a thin five-foot white woman, was struck from behind by a group of black high school age students near Howard University in DC.

In a moment of insanity, she swung her fists wildly and made contact a few times before running away.

She gave as good as she had and escaped unharmed. I told her "that is so sexy" and I meant it. I am probably in love, but already married.

Audacious Epigone said...

Anon,

Shame on me for not looking into what the hashtag movement was raising awareness for, specifically. You make a good point.

A few confounding factors:

Do we count instances of subjects who fire at or assault police (or even resist arrest--which is a form of violence) in the opposite direction (for homicide the ratio is roughly 4:1)?

There are decent racial data on suspects, but I'm not aware of similar data on police shooters (though I haven't looked specifically). Police forces in many of America's most violent cities are substantially black.

Does a violent criminal shot dead by police count as a 'victim' in the same way victims identified in the annual survey do?

If we include police killings into homicide statistics, they comprise about 3% of the total, and of that 3%, black 'victims' make up less than half, so it probably wouldn't change the distributions much.

Silly Girl,

See Mr. Larsen.

Dan,

You work with Ann Coulter?

Oh, she's like 6 feet tall, never mind.

Anonymous said...

"There are decent racial data on suspects, but I'm not aware of similar data on police shooters (though I haven't looked specifically). Police forces in many of America's most violent cities are substantially black."

Yes but much less so than private killers. In Baltimore African-Americans make up 63% of the population and 43% of the police force:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltimore_Police_Department
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltimore

African-American police officers, police chiefs, and mayors don't seem to reduce rates of police shootings, but I'd say African-American cops are still conducting only a minority of the shootings of African-Americans by police.


"Does a violent criminal shot dead by police count as a 'victim' in the same way victims identified in the annual survey do?"

Most of the victims of private murder also are young men with criminal records, who use lethal violence in disputes with each other over drugs, women, money, gangs, and so on. So this is comparable.

"If we include police killings into homicide statistics, they comprise about 3% of the total, and of that 3%, black 'victims' make up less than half, so it probably wouldn't change the distributions much."

It's worth remembering that private murder kills far more people, but citizens can rightfully demand higher standards of the police, and at the current margins cops are killing a really large number of suspects per police offer who gets shot. Training could be adjusted, and body cameras instituted, so that police take somewhat greater risks to reduce the amount of collateral damage they cause, and to stop outright abuse, like the blatant murder of Walter Scott.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_of_Walter_Scott

Also, while shootings do not seem to be racially biased after controlling for circumstances, there is evidence that beating and manhandling of people by police is dramatically racially disproportionate. Frequent police discourtesy and 'laying hands on' African-Americans contributes to the terrible relations between police and the African-American community, and thus to the high murder rate in the community. Roland Fryer just presented a big empirical study on this:

http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/36141?in=62:40&out=68:50

Anonymous said...


If the #blacklivesmatter protesters get their way in having officers wear body cameras, this kind of thing will be reduced, along with citizen complaints against officers, based on past trials with mandatory body cameras.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Justice/2015/0501/Study-shows-that-with-police-body-cameras-everyone-behaves-better-video

Body cameras will also protect cops against false accusations. If every cop wore a body camera with a continuous feed to a remote recording site, then Darren Wilson would have been immediately exonerated in Ferguson, while Michael Slager would never have dared to murder Walter Scott (a killing which was recorded by a bystander with a cell phone).

Yes, it's worth making clear that police misconduct and excessive force is not directed only at African-Americans, that shootings do not seem to be racially biased after controlling for circumstances, and that the problems happen with both black and white cops, police chiefs, prosecutors, and mayors. Yes, some but not all of the specific cases the movement has rallied around, such as Michael Brown's, are based on a motivated misreading of the case that has been rejected by multiple investigations.

But the burden of the problem falls disproportionately on the African-American community because of its disproportionately high crime rates. And the demand of #blacklivesmatter protesters for mandatory body cameras will help to reduce outright murders like the killing of Walter Scott, protect innocent police officers from false accusations, and curb everyday discourtesy and abuses by police that interfere with police-community relations needed to make more progress in reducing the horrific murder rights in African-American communities.

So go ahead and correct some of the misconceptions floating around, but also remember and make clear that the movement's core policy demand is one that is well-deserving of our support even after correcting all those misconceptions.

Anonymous said...

Another post about the bodycam study:

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/01/the-effect-of-police-body-cameras.html

Audacious Epigone said...

Anon,

Thanks for the thoughtful comments.

Body cameras seem like a no-brainer to me--they include all the advantages of the digital age (capturing things as they occur) without the downside (allowing easy facilitation of crime).

The Walter Scott case isn't that clear cut. We're talking about a perp in a stolen vehicle who ran from the scene of a traffic stop, resisted arrest, and possibly attempted to assault Slager before being shot.

Sam said...

Great and informative as always Audacious Epigone

And Anon has provided some well argued responses so I appreciate the debate and especially the manner in which it is conducted.

With regards to body cameras, I'm not so sure if there is really no downside. This might seem inappropriate to raise but the camera would remove some of the discretion the police has when dealing in high pressure environments where they might need to use a heavier hand on criminals. It would seem like the sort of thing a policeman, that patrolled such areas, would not advocate because it would hinder his ability to keep the peace. On the flip side the camera would have the benefits you guys have mentioned.


"So go ahead and correct some of the misconceptions floating around, but also remember and make clear that the movement's core policy demand is one that is well-deserving of our support even after correcting all those misconceptions"

You are right but the fundamental problem in this debate is that it is impossible to take the blacklivesmatter movement serious when it concerns less than 1/2 of 3 % of homicides. Furthermore, it brings out bitterness in realists who find that not only are they incapable of affecting real change with regards to the general racial crime problem* but it can hardly be addressed publicly. Inversely, you have a couple of high profile white police on black cases that have sparked serious discussions and policies even when those cases have been a mixed bag. In this light it would seem self-defeating to concede too much to this new cause.