Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Not licked yet

Created using preliminary data on US births in 2014:

A few years ago the Census bureau announced that (non-Hispanic) whites no longer comprised a majority of newborns in the US, the implication being that in (less than) five years' time they would no longer constitute a majority of kids under the age of five, in (less than) eighteen years' time the would no longer constitute a majority of minors, etc.

Pew has a piece explaining the possible reasons for the premature announcement, though "wishful thinking" is conspicuously absent from among them. For the last three years whites have held the line at 54% of all births in the country.

In most states a majority of newborns are white. That is not the case in New York, Georgia, Florida, New Jersey, Maryland, Arizona, Nevada, Texas, DC, California, New Mexico, and Hawaii, however. Though the number of states is small, the number of people in these states is not, with the country's four most populous ones in the majority-minority column.

Politically, the Rubicon runs through Texas. When it inevitably flips from red to blue, the consequence will be 76 electoral college vote swing, ending any chance for a Republican to ever occupy the White House again. Florida is probably already forever lost to the GOP and Georgia is only a couple election cycles away from the same fate.

If you're of the persuasion that demography is destiny, there are two crucial determinants that shape the future: Immigration and differential fertility. These are the battlefronts.

In the interest of full disclosure, an indication of which side I'm on:


Jokah Macpherson said...

Hooray Alabama. And congratulations; you are very subtle, as always.

Anonymous said...

I am so sick of the whole "MOAR WHITE BABIES" thing. It does nothing to help if all of the White people who listen are the low IQ underclass Whites, and it would be even worse if they all had those children out of wedlock. I don't care if there are 100 million or 100 billion White people on this planet. I care about quality, first and foremost. One of the reasons why I respect Reform and Conservative Jews so much is that they are the only people on this planet who truly understand this principle. Jews are few in number, but they make sure that the children they have are high quality.

What would really be great for the entire globe is if low IQ, low conscientiousness, unmarried people stopped having kids and high IQ, high conscientiousness, married people had more kids.

Anonymous said...

Linus Pauling and Michael Farraday came from poor backgrounds. Of course, geniuses from the lower classes are rare, but some do exist. Wasn't Newton born out of wedlock? Newton!

As for low IQ people having children: as long as we don't have full automation, I want to interact with whites when I'm doing the groceries or buy stuff; muslims or blacks are usually a PITA to interact with. Especially the muslims here in Germany let you feel their contempt for white Europeans, they really hate us and want to take over. Once they are a majority, they will kill, enslave or convert us. I also think that an average white is more likely to be able to conserve European culture than your average muslim or even a black person -- he might not be able to advance it, but the white European will be able to appreciate Europe's culture more than the muslim or black guy. (German anthropologist Andreas Vonderach wrote that people from the north show more kindness to animals and appreciation of nature than people from the south. You need to appreciate nature to appreciate European art, besides having a classical education.)

I, too, would have liked my father to have been sterilized, as I'm pretty much white trash. This is the reason I'm in favor for: 1. Negative Eugenics of the Galtonian type and 2. Suicide chambers.

sykes.1 said...

The Jews, despite high quality births, are a declining percentage of the US population, and their numbers are declining. Presently at about 2%, down from 3% a generation ago, they should be below 1% in another generation. At some point they are an irrelevant curiosity and a vanishing memory.

On the other hand, Amish have high birth rates. Their population is rapidly expanding in the arc from central Pennsylvania through Iowa. Sprechen zie Deutsch? Your grandchildren in that arc might have to.

So much for quality. Numbers count. The future belongs to whoever shows up. Anonymous I (and II?) won't be there, and his hopes and opinions won't matter.

But enough of that. What I really wanted to say is that with a white population around 50% and an Hispanic population around 30% the possibility of coalition politics arises. While Hispanics will always be Democrats and whites majority Republicans, there are many policies they can agree on. And many of these policies might offend the current Ruling Class, especially the blacks and Jews who run the Democratic party.

Anonymous said...

Jews are doomed in the Democratic Party.

Look at the student government in UCLA/Berkeley in California where they are all hating on Israel with their BDS stuff, and they won't let Jews on the student councils or anything because, to them, they're just another group of white people, and all the "minorities" have better identity politic arguments than the jews. Most jews in UK vote conservative, you will see the flip pretty soon in the USA, too.

Another thing, about the white people still having the majority of births...the generation Y echo boom (children of baby boomers) is just starting to have children, so I think the whites will continue to make up the majority of births. Of course, you have to take into account the millions of minorities that are moving to the USA every year, so births aren't as important.

Audacious Epigone said...




White birthing trends are not becoming more dysgenic over time. If anything, they've become more eugenic over the last couple of decades. There are lots of reasons that society is better off if those having the most children are the ones with the foresight and industriousness to provide for and raise them, but the specific data here don't speak to that. Anyway, the 'moral' of the post is aimed at, well, readers, and their contributions will be overwhelmingly eugenic.


Right, and Jews are only able to exist as they do in the US (and the West more generally) because of the lack of widespread animosity/resentment directed towards them by the white majority. NAMs are much more antagonistic.

Dan said...

Terrific photo of your son!

Epigone, please keep shooting until your gun runs out of ammo, sincerely. (Note to NSA, this is a metaphor. Keep up and the good work and get those terrorists!)

Anonymous said...

Dear AE,

Your team is currently down 7.3 B to 1. That cute little tyke looks to be about 18 months. Time to get cracking on a comeback. 7.4 B to 2 in 9 months?

bleach said...

Are there stats which include the race of both parents? I know the great majority procreate intraracially, but that seems to become less true the more diverse the mating pool becomes, and half-white children heavily identify with their non-white half (Obama had a white mother, of course). And then there's the whole problematic nature of the bogus 'Hispanic' ethnicity, which should simply be abolished.

Audacious Epigone said...

Not ones that are as complete as these that I am aware of. Obviously the race of the father presents problems because of paternal uncertainty, though the number of cases where the race of the father is unknown after the evidence of the baby is produced would presumably be small.