Monday, May 18, 2015

Democrats and working-class whites

Thinking about the fate of working-class whites is, ahem, not in vogue, but since they do still constitute around one-third of the country's population (depending on the particulars of how they're defined), they can't simply be wished away--yet. The following graph shows the percentage of working-class white adults who have self-described themselves as Democrats since the GSS' inception through to the present:


The resurgent spike in 2008 sent a thrill up my leg.

As the fissures in the coalition of the fringe grow larger and sharper-edged, whites of modest means are the first to spill out and into the political void.

The key is to make sure they're vomited up at a slow and steady pace so that the national balance between the two parties remains roughly even. If whites defect too slowly, the Cathedral's paramount concerns can't be candidly brought to the fore without risking the kind of internecine fighting that characterizes its activity in major cities across the country, something that isn't too disruptive when the True Party is the only game in town, but that does have serious political implications so long as the Stupid Party is still around. On the other hand, if whites defect too quickly there is a chance that a racially-conscious opposition party might actually be able to act with numerical superiority.

Better to bide time and strike at overall parity as whites continue to dwindle into minority status so that by the time the inchoate idea of white political self-interest grows into something more broadly understood and even publicly articulated, it'll be too late for anything to come of it.

Let this be a reminder of how little time you and yours have left.

GSS variables used: CLASS(2), RACE(1), YEAR, PARTYID(0-1)

6 comments:

sykes.1 said...

Progressives assume that the rather fragile alliance of hispanics, blacks and Asians will hold together and will be able to dominate whites. However, the low-level and unreported race war between blacks and Mexicans belies that hope, as does the antipathy of most Asians towards blacks.

What this means is that there is an opportunity for whites to form shilfting coalitions with hispanics and Asians against blacks. How far oppression of whites has to go before this happens is unknown.

Dan said...

I derive hope from the fact that the left itself can implement conservative policies when the alternative is chaos.

The left deals with urban problems in a way that would make a conservative blush.

Dealing with urban crime via abortion? There is no Republican who could have come within a hundred miles of that. If welfare use is ever preconditioned on birth control, it will be Democrats and not Republicans that bring us that sensible policy. Republicans will probably oppose it.

Ethnic minorities too can be remarkably conservative when the alternative is chaos. African countries shut their borders on pain of death in dealing with Ebola. The Salvadorian government is going around and visiting homes at night, finding gang members and killing them extrajudicially. With the political approval of the crime-wracked public.

(Trying to be optimistic, heh)

Anonymous said...

OT: given your focus recently this article by Leah Libresco might be of interest:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/evangelical-protestants-are-the-biggest-winners-when-people-change-faiths/

Anonymous said...

The Blue Collar White (Christian) Male is treated disparately and blatant prejudice against this group encouraged. BCWMs are the group forced to the "back of the bus". They are inexplicably political taboo. As noted in the column, they represent 1/3rd of the population and most never vote because no politician will advocate their rights. They are the last considered, if considered at all. In terms of employment and college admissions they are unwanted and unwelcome. WHy this group's civil rights are dismissed is simple - Democrats could never win an election if they did vote. The Democrat purposely deride and ridicule BCWMs are dumb and incompetent. They are attacked as ignorant hillbilly racists. Democrat fear this group like no other. Why a politician does not tap this voting group baffles me. The evidence of their persecution spans 50 years and offends the Constitution. Returning their rights would effectively end affirmative action and that would doom the current Democrat campaign model. If a presidential candidate got half these votes he wins by a landslide - 10+ million votes.

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous at 5/21/15, 8:30 AM

Sarah Palin in 2008 explicitly advocated for the rights of those kinds of people. Remember this guy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_the_Plumber

Jim Bowery said...

Wikipedia deleted its article on working class whites within the last year because it was not a concept accepted by scholars. When I went looking for the discussion of the deletion today, to get the exact "rationale" for deletion, I couldn't even find that discussion. The deletion log isn't to be tampered with, supposedly.

Given the recent news that working class whites are experiencing rising mortality rates -- a unique phenomenon for any demographic group in the developed world -- and their prevalence in support for Trump, it seems rather important to track down what Wikipedia is up to here.